Typhoon Tip

it's because nothing's changed in a week ( really ... ) since i/we first posted about it all. this manic-like behavior of needing model run to cinema some dopamine jerk ... is unfortunately not a physical force in the atmosphere that will create movies capable of appealing to that sickness. yeah, now that's funny!

definitely an inverted trough signal there

no ... more plasmoids sent here as reconnoiter sentinels prior to the invasion -

it's difficult to identify a larger order of mass field driven restoring in order to propagate a major through the field during that time. that unfortunately leaves it susceptible to smaller even nuanced suppression ( transitive forcing if you will ...) tendencies from the -d(nao); a deterministic feat that's hard to do the day before, let alone 8 days out there. as it sits right this now, while typing... the better aspect would be less -d(nao). the fact the models are tending to a s track may already be representative of these ideas above

1/2 is rain for sne .. .but, there's room/concern there for elevations of cne, with more column blue snow possibilities in maine 1/6 is a sub-index system .. i like to refer to those as maintenance events. as it leaves, the polar-arctic hybrid air floods in its wake, engulfing all of the np-gl-eventually ov and ma regions. that sets stage for the 8/9/10 arena ... 8/9/10 .. 11 still looms largely in the telecon/interpretation. this has been the case for a week now, with a very bright beacon. the recent operational gfs ( vastly too early to indict ...) runs have been oscillating between extraordinary solutions ... followed almost immediately upon the next run cycle, by almost nothing. this 12z run with a 990 mb closed sfc pressure contour that is the size of nearly tx, while at the same time ...essentially missing any event, is a ginormous warning flag for explosive potential. what i'm looking at in these operational runs is "too much of a good thing" you actually don't need 504 dm spv to subsume into the mid latitude flow in order to create something special. what's happening is that there is too much d(gz) between 40 N and the gom. that delta/excessive gradient is causing the s/stream s/w to rocket around the southern arc of the diving spv, at too fast of a rate ... so what ends up happening is that it outpaces - the prey runs faster than the predator. you can coherently see this slipping bipass between the s aspect ...out pacing the spv. the spv ends up deepening by non linear constructive feedback, with no help from cyclogen because the s stream trigger long gone. there are two competing cons trying to steal what is really just a fantastic opportunity. obviously, the winter enthusiasts among us with rather they both fail... but the first is, this tendency to over slope the heights in the mid latitude/velocity saturation thing is real. that's A. B, the models also have an amplitude bias in this d7-11 range. it's difficult to parse out if/and/or how much of either A or B is delimiting this thing... luckily for us, there is no real responsibility to correctness by any guidance beyond day 8 - it's really just a fun thing that we're even given those range. the telecon and the ensemble-based super synoptic indicators are really the most important aspect in that range.

yeah i know i've been waiting for that

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DEIg84BtTCs/?igsh=MTh3bGk3NWxra2RzOA==

GFS is distorting the meridian component of the amplitude because it ends up resolving so much speed into the individual s/w propagation movements thru the field thru that period - neg interference wrt to phasing aspects that situ 8/9/10 has a magnificent subsume variety phase potential otherwise.

Looks like there may be an early attempt at coalescencing on a low that passes over the Cape/islands.. this looks okay considering the path of jet max. the global position is okay but the left exit region of the acceleration aloft is east of their positions really - positions they're sort of 'getting away with' because we're eating cc shit on this one. cc/islands would probably be a good track for us in the interior, hfd to ash nh, 30 years ago but .. ha. we'll be 38 or so here in interior sne with 850s around -2c ... so darn close but likely too warm. I would still pay attention in cne and points NE up in Maine, however. in fact, 12z rgem along with very recent nams ( like 18z nams ..) are threatening a flash over around noon to 18z from the monads and ne looking. quick moving and again ...this was never a huge.

that 2000 year was an absolutely terrifying snow depth season over western ns and nf per a first hand account i had with a stranger. we missed the goat winter here by really what amounts to a geo-meteorological ch's distance that year. i recall either a storm or the one you were talking about.. but it bombed down to 943 mb about 300 mi e ...the western edge of a horrific ccb was like just over the eastern horizon by radar... and moved better than perfect for ns glacial death i was in a pub down on rt 20 in waltham one night in late february 2001 ... 'mad raven' of all times and places to happen to see a photo ( no kidding) some guy there who happened be visiting from ns he had a couple wallet photos he kept of that winter. the front of his house ... the snow depth musta been, i dunno 15 feet ? the entire facade entombed on both side with at least 8 foot of depth on the roof itself. the lights in the living room were like illuminated at the end of a white hallway

that whole period is really vulnerable through then .. this is like a first detection that’s drilled into enormous numerical instability … constructive interference; there’s likely to be let downs and let ups in ensuing model runs for awhile, but unless the over arcing modalities (+d(PNA)/-NAO ) go away … it is more likely there will be presentation on the map 8-11th

You’re late

Two.5 really but I see why with that look.

Eye candy art time

Run is better behaved but obviously at this range no hopes should be set

these are the ones with mass field modality support 1/2 8/9/10 (negotiable at this range )

slow evolving epicosity on the telecon inflection event out there at 8/9/10 tho

luckily for me that run is laughably badly handling the local hemisphere and is unlikely to bear reality then

that’s an ugly handling around the 7/8/9/10 actually.

no it's not always one or the other. just in deference to the outlook "if" it were to succeed that's also for the whole month. the current climate back ground connotes less probability for those cool sides and/or a diametric month like your describing there. that looks like a bombastic lay. they're right that being on the polar side of the boundary would be a whole different world, but i don't believe acceptance of the current climate leans one in favor of that

in fact ...we've well established that february is capable of shock and awe warm departures, particularly over the last decade of them ... with multiple different years in the span hosting febs with 70s even an 80 on a couple occasions... ( nothing wrong with 30+ anomaly high ). i would consider that outlook fair warning -

i don't believe the current climate footprint should reasonably imagine a verifying cfs outlook working in favor of winter enthusiasts.

yeah ..there may be a few interpretations. all i know is we got 13" with some sleet on top in acton ma. by late afternoon the next day, we were driving around town like normal.

1993 was a triple stream phase. in fact, the geometric wave space was arguably in phase from the latitude of the arctic circle of the nw territories, to the nadir of the trough as it was spawning the zygote circulation over the western gom. i like to metaphorically compare it to a 'rogue wave' event in the atmosphere. that's that thing that occurs in the open ocean, when surrounding waves suddenly decrease in space significance, while this one towering giant lurches up that is sometimes 3 or even 4 times the height of the previous mean trough to crest wave heights of the surrounding sea surface. this is thought to be what took down ships around bermuda, as the g-string current would cause huge wave crests when northeast gales are in that region - favoring the genesis of rogue waves. edmond fitzgerald etc anyway, the atmosphere's a fluid medium that obeys fluid mechanics ... which is wave physical. maybe it's not so much a metaphor

okay, following up ... this was never high confidence for snow, guys - there's no 'sinking ship' really. reading is a problem in here. it was described as very marginal, with snow perhaps 'collapsing toward the coast in the last 1/2 to 1/3 of it'. and, at the time .. was largely based on colder trends from various guidance sources that occurred yesterday. i did say the bold (abv) to Scott. well ... that's summarily what happened, unfortunately for snow enthusiasts. it trended back warmer. oh well... i mean, these were/are minor trends oscillating on either side of marginal, and this is what you get. there's still a non-zero chance this could amplify and end up more se again. fwiw, the ggem is persisting with potent look that offers a decent nor'easter. it's not a snow vs rain discussion point, but having a sub 990 mb low approaching from the s, and ending up in the boston harbor as a 982 mb is noteworthy for those that are interested in the meteorology of it. granted ( haha ) not the most popular model in the tool box, no.