Typhoon Tip

At least it's not winter any longer. Sort of a personal rule, it is still winter until radiational cooling nights stop short of falling to or beneath 32. It doesn't matter how warm it is or may have gotten up to the point in time the observer thinks winter is behind them, if 2 nights down the road manage to radiate to 32 or lower, it's still winter. We just did 2 nights in a row whence radiational cooling dictated the temperature behavior, and neither was much below 40 where I am, and appeared to stay above freezing in the bulk across the region.

funny ... posted that exact same sentiment re the first little while of May over in that April thread

Sounds like you guys are heavily leaning on the GFS for Saturday? There's not much mention going back and forth that includes the other guidance. The differences between them are not that significant, granted, but the 00z GFS was the wetter implied run. It and previous runs had persistent tendency for low-on-the-front burst while the whole mechanical wave space translates over the area... The Euro and GGEM both have less of that. Then, the 06z GFS appears to align more like the Eu/GGEM. So the blend is valid in my mind and as of now ... the error correcting doesn't favor the GFS' prior runs. The Euro, by the way, has a severe potential on Saturday upon a discrete look. There's temperature recovery potential after dawn WAA showers are leaving, and partial clearing is well timed with heating. Elevated DP slotted air/warm sector. Theta-e ridge with narrow SB CAPE transport up the CT R Valley to as high as S VT... and spreads E by late morning. I'd would watch that. That setting looks rather explosive mid day CB scenario and the Euro model's QPF imagination is painting descrete thunderstorms firing off by 18z over far E NY. Sunday looks breezy under self-destruction CAA clouds. Sorta blagh, chilly, and annoying. Short lived as Monday looks like a top-5 day in all guidance. Particularly after 11 a.m. All guidance depict deep layer light W flow transporting a rapidly warming 900 to 850 mb layer. At this time of year and sun strength, that's easily tapped. Dry air at all ceiling levels. +4 850s or so by day's end... I tell you though, that looks ripe for summer sun intensity mutilating the thermal profiles/super adiabatic extension. Probably over -achieving to 72 and going above machine numbers. Tuesday and Wednesday are mid summer. Probably approaching or even exceeding 80 on Tuesday, and in the 80s Wednesday ...another convection chance that afternoon. GGEM's not useful beyond D5 ...it's wantonly cold profiles everywhere and every dimension stress believability. The Euro and GFS match the telecons well enough and blend out to +14+ on Tuesday already by 18z, and 16+ on Wednesday. With deep layer WSW/SW flow and lower ceiling RH still being the case ... whatever machine numbers have for those days, the correction vector is higher. Then, the first week of May ... hmm... significant mode change in the ens -based PNA from all systems.. Rising from negative to positive, with retreated N/Stream, sets the E.C. open to a cut-off spring shit show. It's just far enough off that this could meta to some other/lesser implication, but that's what the deeper range mass fields are suggesting at this time.

First week of May might remind -

75

72

burst out here about 45 min ago... 61 up from 54 . Sat trends suggest this air mass is being heavily modulated by the sun.

It's tough before May ... these warm synoptic return surges at this time of year tend to be DP challenged at this latitude. It's intersection of CAPE/lapse rate. We're all lapse this early. We rely on the biological farts accumulated across the whole continent for the bulk of our DPs in the warm season, and that doesn't really ratchet up until the green up it is farther along than this breast bud time of the year. Later in the summer we can get a Bermuda circulation that brings Floridian source on the big curve ...but not likely getting DP contribution from that source this early, when the westerlies are still driving fronts so actively through and the N/stream won't fucking die ... jesus

Yup been eying that... That 29th/30th warm surge has been off and on, but getting more "on" across recent day's of runs. I think of that as the next 80+ burst... Sort of a Saturday partial redux. ...In the middle of the chain to the desk part of the week, too. sweet. But no worries ...we'll make up for it at 49 F and .78" of slat gray bum pounding on Saturday. Actually Sunday could a great recovery

If you expand that product you can almost tell by temperature distribution that a diffused sort of warm front probably failed in the nocturnal cooled sludge to get NE of NY... Lot of 60s just SW of the region. My hunch is that the NAM thought it would be more successful. It's probably better at this point to have the main boundary just sweep house. There's very little CAA if at all behind ...so that may be where we get a recovery.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/hazards?obs=true&wfo=grr

Looping that ... the mid and high levels are actually not the problem. There's terrain-enhanced low shit that's sort of stationary-ish, while the weak flow going down slope has sun over the valleys... You can get a sense of where the ridge line vs lower els are aligned. That region over NE Mass is the back edge of the mid/ua lid

I've been tricked once already this young warm season in doubting a warm temperature blossom based upon morning trends... Namely, the 84 I put up here on Saturday... It was like 68 at a 11am with cloud contamination ...etc... It was one of those days where when you are not looking at satellite, the sun pokes through, but it it's always cloudy when you check. heh. Still, 75 seems like a stretch here when it 51 and drizzle and sky on satellite is clearly indicating that the models were too optimistic in clearing things out by now. we'll see...

I actually miss-interpreted the writing of that article when I first saw it. I thought it was telling me that the Himalayan snow deficits have been below normal for the last 23 years. It was in fact written that the region suffers "a 23-year low" which means... in the past 23 years, this is the lowest year totals. Those two have different meanings, that latter being what was actually discussed. The current deficit is running 3-years consecutively, however, suggesting perhaps a "snow drought" in a local time series. It's still useful to bring it up because the population, relying on the regional resources as it must, has been allowed to burgeon to billions. That was/is still a human choice. And so yet again anthropomorphic interference takes center stage. Population has burgeoned so fast that it cannot possibly have been tested against any (very likely) longer term variation in that regional climate system, variations that introduce periods no longer capable of supporting it. Similar problem exists over here in American with California (imho). These regions of the world may not intrinsically be able to to sustain populations of "the most successfully greedy species biology has ever created" on this world. Lol. Population outpacing the normal environment's ability to sustain it - where has that ever been evidenced as a problem? Which gets further complicated in the latter sense because what is normal? Normalcy itself is in a state of change. Anyway, the correlation to CC is less intuitively clear. Just an a-priori awareness of Earth, 3-year biases of either dry deficit, vs moist surpluses, can easily fit into a "noise" expectation - be explained by fractal behavior. The other aspect to consider is the specific climate "behavior" of that region. Evaluating the standard deviation would be useful in revealing just how unusual the 3-year snow deficit really is there.

It’s less likely Saturday will produce like that Late spring/early summer temp tomorrow and Wednesday on this NAM run

Oh yeah... and https://phys.org/news/2025-04-himalayan-year-threatening-billion-people.html

Those are wave clouds/undulatus ... they are typical along 40 N in the spring and early summer due to warm air riding over an antecedent cooler/denser air mass. It's going to 75 tomorrow in a warm sector diffusing into a dying cold frontal wash ... then WNW d-slope compression adds... hell, it may even be a warm bust 80.

I hopes so ... need the rain. Sunday looks really nice. It has to rain sometimes - tough shit, it's on the Saturday. But y'all just had an 11 on scale of 1-10 so deal.

I've been writing about this very Climate Change - related subject for a number of years. The biggest hurdle in moving society toward an existential urgency is that it lacks much of any sense in personal experience. It simply doesn't appeal to the native senses in real time. Anthropologically it is shown that people, particularly in groups, will be less likely to believe a new warning or directive when they cannot see the evidence of consequence, directly. This limitation enables denial in all forms... Whether it is divisive and immoral, or just hardened skepticism, notwithstanding. In the article below, published in The Conversation , Alexander Bentley discusses the matter. https://phys.org/news/2025-04-exposure-perceptible-temperature-climate-higher.html It behooves those in the know to learn and understand the audience limitation, in order to strategize a more affecting delivery. This is all a duh intuition. I've likened it in the past to an analogy. We are a quarrelsome species, standing upon the railway to doom as the iron beneath our feet has begun to vibrate; instead of moving off the tracks, all the distracting hysteria instead argues the color shoes being warn to the engagement. One aspect that is interesting ... the idea of younger generations perhaps 'not needing' as much direct evidence exposure to be convinced. There's a suggestion here that some of the persuasion toward accepting the objective reality may come by way of these older generations dying off... This is an aspect I had not personally thought of until reading the passage in the article, 'Young people are growing up with climate change' Momentum toward macro- acceptance and eventual ... better expediency in response, may emerge just by natural mortality of the "obsticularly" limitated population.

what a day ... 65 with much less wind and the clouds are eroding back allowing more sun than anticipated. tomorrow 70s...

I'm planning on the 20% reduction of amplitude that seems to always be a necessary correction in the mid range to pull us back just over the tolerability threshold. It looks like a fropa with the vorticity smearing out N of us. there's are also some reasoning related to GFS specific biases to erode warm heights too much out in time but... it's all negotiable.

Yeah Norway.

frost here sat says overcast which will retard recovery today ..but it won't be 33 tonight. tomorrow begins a period where cloud depending, the afternoons could be more consistently making a run at 70 for 3 or so days. i noticed the 80s on saturday really triggered our green up process. we were budding before, but now all sugar and red maples are flowered well out, and even the oaks are bud swelling. it'll be interesting to compare at the end of the week.

Wind's actually slacked a bit here as we're approaching mid day... Very hot sun, and temperatures tickling 60, it's not near as bad as the gradient pinched CAA impression of the charts would have one think. At a glance that looked like 48 - guess it helps to actually look at the sounding, huh. ha. D-slope for the the win... It's every bit as amazing as yesterday imo, just at the other end of the temperature range. Yesterday made 84 here... 2 more and it would have been too much. 62 here with dying wind, about the purest air available to the planet, under searing sun... man, take this weekend as an embarrassing win of April and call it a day. Holiday weekend no less.... Let's just hope we don't pay for it on the 4th of July like 2020