Typhoon Tip

1993 was too far inland imho - .. i'm butting in here. not sure what we're talking about. haha ... but if we're discussing impact relativity. 1993 was really more of burst of heavy snow that was comparatively rapidly recoverable along the 95 corridor/coastal plain east of the apps cordillera. the snow did not collocate so well with population density/geography, as well as that 1899 appears to have accomplished. part of my bringing this up is because 1993 always pissed me off. that was 10 days of d-drip bliss only to have the best heroin land along the roof top of the Appalachian chain? f* that i was down here in acton ma, about 30 mi w of boston as the crow flies, and we got 13" crusted over with 1/2" of sleet. i realize the specter of the storm and it's particular vitals, et al, were quite possible goat ... but it didn't seem from phl to bos like that was really our storm.

isn't hfd one of those climo sites/thermometers that y'all are trying to indict as needing calibration ? i'm noticing that altho december is ( so far ) below normal at the 4 sne majors, it's not hugely convincing. .ranging from -1 to -2 or so. so yeah, it's fair. perhaps not a bad achievement in this day and age when getting a month to neutral seems to be a challenge but hfd is just -0.5 so precarious. i'm wondering if that's suspect? i was also wondering if might get warm enough during these next couple of days to pull that -0.5 to neutral - i guess now that it is the end of the month, there's a lot of weight there and it'd take a lot to move the needle so prolly not.

of course ...with a look like that it 'seems' to finally be more correct with improving performance, huh lol

yeah … the eye candy has its entertainment value and it’s fun … i don’t think that’s our system heading towards the 11th tho …i think we need to watch this period here

we have a difference of opinion on that. as is... the hills of n ct up to the monads and across se nh is a colder signal - marginally so.. but I'm also not taking this model literally I'm correcting based on plenty of precedence and pure experience with that sort of look. the chartage painting blue qpf is more of warning really. heh. we'll see. it won't take any warming or that interpretation doesn't fly - no issue with that...

agreed on the trailing vorticity feed tho - mentioned that above too. forcing an inverted trough and squalling

yeeeah wouldn't worry about gfs 2-ms or even the 950 mb to sfc interval at this range, not considering that wholesale synoptic evolution. that low is moving along climo path with ( at least in this guidance ) a sufficiently cool 1300' thickness - also probably an underestimated hygroscopic cooling factor, laid in from the 30th system backside air mass. wind backs nne in the interior in that and any marginal sfc air will turn blue with lift over top, forced by negative tilt causing bend back frontogenic .. etc these aren't certainties... no. we're just talking my interpretation of those synoptics. also, i'd note that marginal 'blue snow' scenarios tend to look that way in the low levels at this modeling time range. the isothermal sounding isn't seen until it almost happening.

it may be more nyd afternoon into the evening hours. also, 33 .. 34 type snow event so elevations probably helping. looks like you'd do well there, from about where you are through the worcester hills/monadnocks into s nh. se of that axis is probably cat paws over to big aggregates before ending. but along the axis described, that could be burst lasting 5 or 6 hours at moderate rates. it's just the 18z, but since in principle it's decent enough continuity from the 12z it's a likeable trend for y'all winter enthusiasts.

interesting uppers there... we're still inserting wind max for some time after main cyclogen and pass off and it's forcing an inverted trough and squally snows to lag back for a considerable length of time.

18z GFS with a higher side moderate event from hfd to ash out of this potential event ... clear generation of CCB/mechanics there spanning 6 to 9 hours, possible even ending with cob webs off the eaves if right

ha hahahaha ... 'cosmic tip'

the 7th ... heh .. may be just a juggling and logistics thing in the runs, not sure, .. .but the best fit for timing the telecon modalities out there is the 8/9/10th of January. then this arrives in the 12z eps mean? .... yeah, i think y'all might want to wait a day. anyway, this is about as deep as there will ever be a signal at 300+ hours from an ens system. i was actually going give some time to this in that thread i started this morning but figured it'd be too much. this is like real wild territory there

i thought he was talking about the 1/2nd ? either way, the op was on the western edge of the envelope with the 1/2nd. doesn't matter much ...the mean was still only snowing ( maybe ) during the ending 1/3rd or so .. but like you were saying, there's colder variants arriving from other guidance. boy, 126 hours ... seems the model all-over-the-place-ness is worse this season. i think it's the low frequency waves in a high speed flow issue

yeah. you know i'm not sold and/or trying to sell a cold solution outright ..but this scenario has the hallmark of a coastal collapsing mix line thing. it's a ways out there at 130 hours to be so precise - of course. but this is a very negative tilt system, which means we rotate the cyclone model aloft some 45 deg, and that implicates a cold N flow with still some lift going on - has the advantage of chilling the column late.

I was going to start this thread a couple days ago when asked, but ...alas! Xmas got in the way. Happy Holidays... Moderate interior snow is gaining merit both conceptually, and via deterministic methods, for Jan 1/2 - this is still an evolving scenario but the ceiling isn't very high for now. ( yes there's perhaps a more important signal later toward the 8/9/10th; letting the 'Jester January' thread handle for more comprehensive discussion for now. Jan 1/2 is not settled in my mind as far as which side of marginality that evolves. Firstly, the advent of a system in the flow at that time has gained enough signal strength from both teleconnector monitoring, but in the spatial/synoptic handling in the ensemble means to warrant confidence. The logistics of Pacific wave injections has been problematic, particularly in the GEFs system. We're now around 6 days out on this, and while the EPS has been stalwart consistent without deviation for over three consecutive days worth of run cycles means, the recent GEFs are more so onboard - to mention, the 06z GFS showing a fuller commitment to a Miller B, albeit middling circulation/depth ..but this is still an evolving total scenario. Edit, the 12z just came around to the colder solution so am opting to use that as it quite frankly makes the point ... Lastly, this Jan 1/2 is actually the inflection in +d(PNA) that first appeared in the telecon prognostics some 8 or 10 days ago. I realize that folks were focused on the 6/7/8 period. but frankly that was the 'intra modal' signal, and those tend to lose out in time... as the modeling period shortens; I suspect the recent attenuation, with emphasis repositioning out toward the latter signal around the 9th is the better fit - hint hint, that's quite a signal out there. **One aspect that I think needs to be considered is that altho the NAO phase may or may not be spatially represented in the modeling depictions, subtleties in the behavior of the modeling cinema bear suggestion that an influence lurks. There is/has been some backward exertion in the field among the various modeling system when attempting to impinge N-E of 80/40. This opens the suggestion to an east tendency in future guidance... I saw the 06z GFS ( oper.) do exactly that ... i think this event is for real. I also think there is a medium potential ( so not great mind you - ) that it has a chance to be a 'collapsing to the coast' type of event - it's been a long time since we've observed a scenerio like that, and it's not a major ordeal. But it could be a back half 1/3 or even 1/2 cyro profile, as dynamic height falls associated with a period of better deepening as it is exiting, work over the top of modest but crucial chilly marginal air mass mid way thru and onward..

good post, but i'd suggest one small alteration to the bold above. '...this board is addicted to the model produced cinema for a thrill' - otherwise spot on... lol j/k sorta i do offer there is usefulness in identifying 'probability nodes' within a general pattern evolution, however. for example, folks want to get past the 5th or whatever ... however, that is actually 'intramodal' there is less mass field restorative forcing once inside the relative stasis of a pattern mode. it's at the onset and outset of the pattern inflections where things get interesting. which is why in this case, dec 30 - jan 4 is the better fit. it's just that those systems look to arrive in a rotted polar air mass ...during this latter leg of cc no less. heh. one thing that's hurting that range is that we've pretty much lost the operational representation of what was originally a better -nao demo. it's blown away and that's why these systems are cutting and/or are too warm - tending to be that way as of late in guidance.

i was referring to the operational 'model magnification' aspect wrt to amplitude. a s/w and resulting affairs are attenuated something like 15 to as much as 40% over whatever is embedded in the late mid range+, over time. it's really an aspect i factor in. anyway, the ens means are over doing these patterns out in time. the operational runs are over doing embedded features, after that fact. in principle, it's an issue with modeling tech in general

mm, relative to this 2 week window, incoming? absolutely - that would help the white glovers' case however, i advance that the op runs are as guilty as the pattern selling by ens', but with embedded emergences when they are there. just sayn'/adding

aah ... there should be no game. the reality is failing returns on optimistic outlooks ... period. that cannot be controverted ( argued against...) because it is the reality. anything else milquetoasts in an attempt to either evade that reality, or white glove it - which frankly aggravates those that want to engage in this social media but have to wade through this amelioration thing the point is ( altho there's sarcasm in that, too...yes ) modeling systems are very drastically short on productive results, given both qualitative and quantitatively supportive outlooks. it's fair enough to suspect that this aspect, too, will end up yet another canard pattern.

i'm kind of fighting off the temptation to fall into Ray's bad attitude ... tired of ogling these amazing pattern Rembrandts only to have whatever emerges in time ... all but dependably becoming a head-game of diminishing returns. in a lot of ways, it's like the modeling systems are gas-lighting lol

yup . also, to reiterate the 6-7th still has the better 'conceptual cold' look just given to the evolution, et al ... 'Brooks and I have been discussing going back. but that's technically gaga range

i'm considering but i'm pressed for time... i have to go to a ham dinner in a jiff. maybe tonight when i return? it would have to be another "experimental outlook" as though i'm keen on an event around the 2nd/3rd, i'm far less sure it will be the "type" of impactor folks want to read about ... hahaha. by the way, the only thing that is off putting about this particular mean for any sane winter enthusiast is the fact that it's at the end of the run and thus liable to change. But even so... therein consider this amplitude at this time range - i'm like whaaa

yeah, the more i've analyzed the hemi this morning i suggest the gefs merely strayed for a day. there's weight coming from other telecon that offer less support. it happens. it's not an indictment before anyone gets started with that vamp, not at this range. we've seen the eps do that before.

yeah .. i mean not to oversell it - just don't ignore. that doesn't have to modulate a ton to be the first player entering that time span. i feel pretty confident - more so than climo for this range and modeling ... - that there'll be a system then and there but lots of time to iron out the marginality

12z eps and operational euro are more emphatic about my jan 2nd system actually existing on the map - heh... that's important for one. but, the operational euro's position thru ny state is a warm/west outlier relative to the ensemble mean, which is in fact, deeper than its 00z depiction, and also more se, taking a low along the climate track that typically does well... also the ensemble mean is showing that a cold solution at 850 mb is on the table i think we should be at minimum not flouting this energy here in this range. it's 7 consecutive eps mean cycles getting 2 mb more coherent per, and this is still 200+ hours, while the 850 is getting ticks colder.