Typhoon Tip

i think we've discussed this in the past. either way ... the big -nao 2010 season that brought 'snowmeggeddon' to the d.c. - phl corridor was a lesson in not hoping for the -nao, when/if not learning about it's idiosyncrasies and circumstantial devil - not saying this is the whole season but, looking at that nam solution at 12z... d.c. would have probably 2 to 3X's my seasonal total by a 108 hours. i'm sitting at a paltry 4.75" here... granted i'm in a bit of a hole relative to other regions... but still -

ot, i just completed installation of my solar panels. the roof area isn't quite large enough to fit another rack, so i'll have to be slaved to the grid still. but the upshot is that the electric-econ account is a zero-sum-game thing... if your generating power and dumping it back into the grid, that offset still exists and ultimately you're paying less for electricity to a macro provider most importantly to me ( other than that morality of going more and more green and lowering one's carbon footprint) it releases the "ngrip" economic nuts clench. no longer purchasing power through that legitimized enron ... with increasing areal coverage of solar parks, even the inclusion of wind farms ... to mention, private sector adoption of panel/power generation, ngrid was beginning to incur economic losses - so... naturally, they shift those losses onto anyone that is not employing alternate/renewable power. what this means is that society has already crossed a threshold where we are being financially punished by not going green. it's kind of interesting how greed and capitalism kind of creating it's own quasi carbon tax - anyway, all that and spin/rationalization aside, winter is a horrible season if it is a 20s and 30s and endlessly dry. it may be my personal druthers, but i just rather not even live here if it is going to be devoid of interesting meteorology, because that weather has zero redemption value for me. and with the above interests then taking over, i'm likely to check out on this year earlier than my usual earliness ( mid feb), because i'd rather start spinnin' my electrical dial in the other way to see it all in action.

count down to ending the solar minimum, t-minus 4.75 weeks ...

also when it’s a stationary postage stamp summit cloud lol

It’s starlink

anyway ... another aspect that is hugely useful in explaining things for me is that the western ridge in these operational models have really been struggling to gasther the size and scale they were implied to achieve by the ensemble means, very fantastic even eye-popping appeals. this gefs mean .... ...from last friday, for the 9th, is poorly represented by this operational gfs from 12z this morning obviously we don't expect them to be perfectly matched, but regardless of cause ...the flow is tilting positive here in this recent run, both relative to the earlier gefs, and in general, and it's fucking shit up.

oh yeah... i mean the block? that's gonna be the case in 1960 ... you can't sit an elephant's ass down on a trampoline and then have anything left to bounce the flow

these are just my thoughts - not trying to be argumentative. it's not just positively tilted troughs ... ( a bit reductive on my part). the study i posted is an academically accredited/refereed work. the jets (definitely the nfl team!) are increasing at farther north latitude. plus, there's increasing velocities - also scienced. can did that up too... which imposes increasing shear, disrupted phase mechanics ( dx exceeds dy too much in the differential trough morphology), general negative interference (non linear ). global precipitation is elevating everywhere all over the world. that's ambient +d(wv) - which is also not merely attributed, but is mathmetically a rather low bar calculation for a junior Met student. in the same vein ..i'm not sure positive vs negative trough orientation 'tendency' can really be crossed up with qpf verification very easily. that's a torturous tedium for a red headed grad student t.a. not much of a refutation in my mind, anyway. positive tilted troughs generate rain and snow. in fact, long duration overrunning events tend to be l/w's that are significantly tilted/positively sloped. also, needle thread storms were on the right exit region of jet core with the trough lagging back clear to almost the arklatex.

if you have fast jet's n of you in the mean, than your building heights underneath the jets...that certainly displaces/slopes the ridge. that's just true. look, these studies are there for people to use at some point, in a practicum. it makes no use for them to just exist. we can keep being skeptical of attribution but that strikes me as passive denial - which i'm not even going to approach. that's just objectively false

i've personally observed this trending phenomenon, but i can assure you ...it's more than purely anecdotal. this article from Phys.org ( a nice site that offers paraphrased content across multiple scientific disciplines ... ) is among others that have been popping up. https://phys.org/news/2024-12-longer-climate-impact-atmospheric-circulation.html there's several paragraphs there, forwarded from this source: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024AV001297 "..Already-detected signals of climate change affecting circulation include a poleward shift of jet streams in the lower troposphere and a weakening of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream and storm track. The dynamics of some signals are understood and have been ..." polarward shift in jet tendencies is quite consistent with increased westerly momentum above mid latitudes - but folks can read it

i know that. i started a thread for it because it was interesting - the lack of cold air made it (understandably) less interesting to this group. haha. it's in mind.. but, please keep in mind that 'tendency' in principle allows for distracting outliers ... it's about deck and dice loading. if we're tending to rotate troughs positive more so than in history, we started getting more failures kind of a thing. i'd rather have an objective limitations identified that are different from the super productive, impossible to ameliorate 'oh god oh god oh god' thing that gets posted.

you know what's funny about this image? ...someone posted something similar to this from some other ... oh i think it was 12 panels of the individual eps members maybe, but they also had that misery negative exposure - what's funny is that if you go back several days and dig up any of those big bomb blizzards that were there, it's just about diametric to that image. we've been yo-yoing between history, vs histrionic personality disorders. lol

it's just like the great lakes. i can remember so many painful days as a lad in/around Kalamazoo Michigan winters where it would be unadulterated purity of blue sky above ...while 10 mi away there was solid wall of merged low top cbs - under witch white out conditions.

there's a trend i don't like. i mean i agree with the above, in principle - i boasted a post last evening showing something similar myself. however, about two weeks ago we were drooling over eps/gefs/geps means that looked similarly and/or canonically fantastic. yet, here we are. as i was annotating/describing above...strife with this irritating rolled over trough look. that is what's materialized out of said 13 day outlook/footprint from back then. that, become this at a broader/seasonal perspective ... it shouldn't sit well with folks that we're burning up the first 10 days of january, with a la nina february on deck after the last 7 years worth of them ...half have had 70 to 80 - during an ever-attributable cc thing no less... yikes i'll call the systems that show up in the 2 week window, either way... but outside of that effort, this winter is like Costanza in line at the soup nazi kitchen, "you're pushing your luck little man"

it's really only one way ... correct below, a lot of this consternation goes away. all these troughs in the flow ( really have to look at it in a mercadian vantage to see it - ) are positively tilted. a lot of these winters have this a leitmotif where any positive heights are trying to 'fold over'. like ridge top wave breaking. the reason is complicated ... probably won't communicate very well buuut it's due to quickening ambient velocities near the seam of where the Ferrel circulation interfaces with mid latitude westerlies - roughly 55 N at this time of year. steeper gradients around the hemisphere --> jet responses and westerly momentum are increased ( in the means ). ...we end up with structures like this... it may be attribution frankly ( 'attribution' in the context refers to a part of cc expression ). much to the chagrin of the eye rolling that started 2.4 seconds ago - anyway, those bigger bombs that took place out around the "dependable" ( lol ) day 12's? they occurred whenever this tipping tendency was less. i noticed that. in fact, whenever the troughs even hint at neutrality, almost in lock step there was more proficiency in cyclonic genesis points. it may be that this predicament has become what that prefix syllable implies: a "pre" condition. one that is perhaps built in and has to be overcome nowadays. it just lowers the odds that any neg tilted phase hard-on out in time will ever make into interior time frames, in tact.

i didn't make that up just out of fun - i was studying the material after viewing the documentary, 'the social dilemma,' several years ago. the show was produced by early google and facebook engineers that left those positions 'for moral' reasons because they knew that what they were doing was a kind of a social engineering. the whole industry really stumbled on to the following: blue light/psychotropic addiction, and the needle is doom scrolling... then later on, 60 minutes did a whole segment expose' on the phenomenon of it. they interviewed these people that said in first person how they worked on algorithms that tailor to a person's scrolling tendencies, with ever more gas lighting and other manipulative psycho babble tactical shit - the motive for doing so, enter here [ ] doesn't need to be listed. so,... why it matters in here is because ... the medium is in fact blue lighting and doom scrolling for that model cinema effect. some of us have joked in the past that seems a lot of users are even less interested in the storm, as much as they seek the guidance that illsutrates it ahead of time? that phenomenon is likely real, and ... it exposes this. people are prone to transfixing in here just like any of these other virtual presentations of reality - just like on any other of those medias. op ed/digression: it's a small part of my general posit that humanity is in fact moving through an evolutionary experiment, where technology has become a proxy in how we survive and/or fail this. - it's a vast science. global birthing rates are crashing to (supposedly) dangerously low levels.. - that's an interesting adjective, when population is too large anyway. from that, to the proliferation and really shocking increase in occurrences of mass violence by single individuals, and (possibly more importantly ...) those that have found one another on the web and are thus empowered loons for finding others like them. these are all being emergent modalities that are quite well timed with the ambit of tech changes that has gripped all societies outside the jungles since roughly the mid or late 1970s ...when television because ubiquitous, and varied, enough to pull one's motivation away from the community - that was really the most primitive beginnings of an internet.

guys ...we're inside of 108 hours on that 6th deal ...it's a now caster/correction if at all, at this point... you can rock back and forth, self-soothing in hope counting down to model output times over the next run but it's too unlikely to be significantly enough different to bother... sig changes in the mass field/handling over western n/a in this 12z gfs wrt to the lead up to the 10/11th

hence 'blue baller' model. it'll get so close to trigger but won't actually "suck"

this icon ... we should just call it the 'blue baller' model

heh... question is, is it real - the models can make giga movements that aren't sustained, too

18z euro btw makes our point from the other day about how nuanced modulation in the amt of back drill exertion from up north (nao idiosyncratic handling..) can mean big changes to cyclone placement... it's still going to be a razor wall on the n side ( 7th ) but this run shifted that deform axis considerably north. another shift of that magnitude and we're probably getting snows into sne

wow ... it's way and hell and gone out at the temporal horizon but that is a kidney bean 2 wave cross polar flow here

yeah ..this effort turned out useful for up north. we're also getting some interesting top down dynamics cooling and ivt cat paws going over to snow down here, too. interesting..

either the atmosphere or the models are running just a spectacular experiment in maintaining a lit match next to glycerine without ever detonating anything. this aspect you've noted, '..these runs aren't afraid to put out absolute bombs...' ? that's just the experiment like accidentally failing for a second, and said potential tunneling through the block of all COC blocks... i realize i've admonished the troubles with fast hemispheres over the last decade, probably ad naseum for a few users, but ...mm, i'm not sure that is all that is causing this exotic potential to just exist indefinitely - therefore, i'm inclined to think the models are the problem ( thus ...) but pure supposition. and that's slim solace until storm actually manifests. which ever it is, it just seems it should be physically impossible to sustain what is actually fucking sustaining so something probably should break. weird. it is about as baffling as those 955 mb lows are extreme -

more impressed frankly that the main players are still identifiable through the frames … so as at least for the mean time, decent continuity considering range