Typhoon Tip

yet ..the euro's even leaving a lot on the table ... look at this slope back from negative interference - it's clearly having trouble with this 9/10/11 period of time. they all have been -

LOL, ya think yeah that 19th thing's been showing up for awhile - and the telecon showing a new +d(pna) chance. i want to point out that there is a powerful mjo sequencing into the phase 1/2, and it's not going to take a long time getting there. by the 7th we're living the wave coherence strongly out of the n/s region of the rmm, and this is true with every guidance system. meanwhile, after an interlude of +wpo, the index in the d10-20 range appears slated to a hefty sag... those two factors are a compelling telecon convergence that the pacific will reload... i find it interesting that the operation gfs, unrelated to those aspect, is indirectly doing this kind of suggetion on or about the 20th .. it's not a deterministic forecast - yet - but in principle

ah we're all friends. it's all good. don't take myself that serously anyway, i wanna also point out that as Brook' and Sey Mour' and i were mentioning of the 00z run, it was missing a capture and much bigger ordeal by a very narrow margin. this one? doesn't miss. it's really just a point of emphasis run really.

yeah, this is all i'm trying to get folks to think about. right.

bun me if one needs to ...i have little left to protect ... but i don't think the solution is altogether terrible. i spent time going over this this morning - what's amusing is that i specifically pointed out that the better timed expulsion of the southern wave, out of the sw, was less likely, because leaving that behind is actually a better fit for the western ridge ..etc..etc. in my defense, however, this run makes my point. the entire sensitivity pretty much comes/came down to the amount of stream interaction and if/when there'd actually be a s component to this thing. in principle, the run isn't bad in that space. course it doesn't mean it's going to happen, either.. just sayn' the gefs mean is a huge trend potentially though.

no ... it's not, but thanks. i write outside of this medium, however. sometimes in helps. sometimes it should have helped, but just didn't but i also spend a lot of nerdy time embedded in the extents cosmology .. to the minute quantum mechanics, and just about any other science in between that range. just interested ...

preaching to the quire ... i mean, i don't think you meant 'me' specifically in the bold above? but just in case ...i'm not ignoring the outside-in issues. i dared to mention the folding l/w stuff was merely related just the other day, and a lot of people don't like the direction of the discourse so ... i just assume a posture where i state the status of the system, and let others design their own interpretation - because this particular engagement has never succeeded in changing anyone's mind. they have to actually cut their f'ing arm off before they admit the blade is sharp, like everywhere in society these days. no, but the problem with gw is/has always been that it is invisible. it doesn't appeal to the biologically evolved method by which life "downloads information from the cosmos" said method is the corporeal senses. they are quite analogous to ports on a cpu. if the data is coming into the cpu is missing, the cpu is challenged to reconstruct a truer likeness of reality. ...it's really a pretty remarkable achievement of evolution that a life -based brain on this planet is capable, at all, of anticipating consequences that haven't yet been measured. this to me is what really separates human kind from other species. not the use of tools and speech and religion - which is likely an outmoded definition, anyway. i dunno. but the ability to do that is part and parcel of the large ability for innovation. which ironically ... is the same force that put us into the 'hot water' to begin with. so, the ability to anticipate and use that anticipation to constrain, is definitely not perfect. if gw gave every male a testicle squeeze, and every female a boob punch, ever morning before they left the house... all of society ways and means would have flipped the script many decades ago

BOOM! brilliant observation ( ha, mainly because i've made this observation myself lol ) no but that's precisely true.

i wrote about this a month or so ago in a post assuredly buried in the oblivion scroll depths ... it's not a trivial discussion content. in an attempt at simple terminology (that will inevitably fail ... ) when we were in the "classical physics" days of meteorological education .. we were taught about the outer limits of deterministic weather modeling as being intrinsically limited because of spontaneity and chaos. every complex system in nature, to which atmospheric thermal and fluid mechanics supremely qualifies... will create it's one processes of perpetuation, or demise. just about in equal proportion. the only reason that it doesn't just eventually devolve into a state of quiescent inactive entropy is because their are governing dynamics consummately effecting the system. on Earth those primarily being ... the differential solar heating across a rotating sphere, then ...having said sphere be tilted, while revolving, adds an additional variance. secondarily, you have the irregularities of the black body object in the thermal balancing, seas versus land,. terrain feature variance like seas versus mountain ranges... it doesn't take long to imagine that this is a messy proposition, and the models attempting to process a virtual state of reality, out in time, have to be able to do what they can't. simply put. they'll never, using 1's and 0's, be able to predict with excessive certainty ( definitely not 'absolute' certainty ) how all that messiness is going to manifest. some process will emerge that cannot be foretold by 1's and 0's, no matter how fast, because time becomes the villain. think of it this way ... A is a series of variables B is a series of variables the interaction of A + B --> C ... where C is a series of polynomials of that are both spontaneously created and/or spontaneously destroying, in time. can you see where this is going? it gets complex very fast, when we then consider that separate created variables, then go on to interact and create new distributions of C' ( prime ) ... then, this whole thing repeating in time, goes on to C'' ... C ''' ... to infinity really. quantum computing changes everything! how? because what quantum computing can do is, predict what all the possible solutions are, with far more proficiency in both speed and in 'knowing' what is destroyed vs created, and thus feedback on the proficiency out in time. so fast in fact that it is fair to suggest knowing all possible solutions instantly. it just knows all the possible solutions to a problem, immediately, and doesn't have to plod through them 1 by 1 ( 1's and 0's computing), which cannot stop 'impossible' results from cluttering the processing out in time. that cuts down the error of emergence bullshit model solutions, a quotient of which can never be totally avoided, particularly in the 1's and 0's method that is the present state of the technology/computing. one aspect i'm less certain of, however, is time. does this work to predict what 'can possibly' emerge, and then does it pick the right one? we used to discuss this in upper class fast ('forecasting analytics and statistics) ... it was always fun philosophy to consider that for every particle in free space one cannot know exactly where they are going to be and what state they are in, because at some point quantum uncertainty principle shuts the door on prediction, entirely. i don't know if quantum computing, being that it actually IS the quantum realm where the uncertainty principle lurks, might somehow get around that electron double slit shit

full disclosure.. .i personally think we need to etch-n-sketch the whole hemisphere and start over - this era was quintessentially designed to be perfectly just wrong enough and we've been fighting it .. blind to some fairly obvious negatives actually. well ... i haven't been, but i don't sense that anyone else has spent the time to really look . like the western ridge being too far west. more i look at this, that's a silver bullet to the heart of big dawg enthusiasts. a bit more complex, the flow being too fast - and by that ... i don't just mean the geostrophic balanced wind velocity, but the models are speeding s/w's movement through the field.

yeah so i suggest the 11th is alive. but, those original ( long extended) beauts of en masse sw eject with the timing of a Beethoven's 5th are unlikely to come back. we are still 180+ hrs out from 00z but there are background arguments that i won't get into here because tl;dr makes it impractical the n/stream has been quasi stable suggesting more amplitude, if perhaps along a shallower corridor. it'd offer a more middling or even nj model low scenario. i will add ... this +pna has been west biased in the operational runs, all of them about 90% of the model cycles. unfortunately, this idea of dropping sw heights and holding there and screwing up timing ... is really a good fit for said bias. if somehow the wholesale relay of the mass fields between the eastern pac and western n/a were to modulate and bump the ridge/correct e.. that would be a plausible impetus to coax that sw feature to open up and become the s/stream piece for eastern shenanigans there may be other mechanism to get that thing to open up and enter the dance floor, but the super synoptic argument about idiosyncratic pna bum porking has definitely got merit, however

it seems the n/stream’s been the more stable in guidance. the s/stream … not so much cmc not impressed

Missed capture by a very narrow margin

So the 0ZGFS is getting interesting for the 11th …again

now'd be a good time for those plasmoids to start firing off their war of the world beams

heh ..snark speculation: because the general scientific ambit is likely inherently opposed to what elan musk has become in recency ?

both approaches can be right right that nothing should be 'given up on' right that that one is hopelessly lost

it's pretty amazing looping this .. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-met&rh=2025010312&fh=loop&r=na&dpdt=&mc= that system runs up to about ... 55/50 or so, hits the nao wall and then rockets due w some 2000 mi, clear to hudson bay, in like 30 hrs now that's what we call a retrograding low!

this'll roll eyes haha 17-20th looks interesting

yeah looping that/cinema makes that more obvious why that's taking place. at least for me ... not sure what the other mets think of this, but the western ridge aspect of this particular flavor of +pna is too far west. what's happening in the nearer term ...there's an eject out of the ne pacific that abruptly turns into an inside slider ... turning s down cali. those then do one of two things: a, they then turn east across the sw and then parent low pressure genesis ~ from colorado to texas ...which depending on the n/stream or not, will morph onto do whatever it does over the eastern continent. b, they then stall and/or shear out the sw; the subsequent environment down stream does not realize or as much low pressure genesis. what determines a or b comes down to what happens with the western ridge once the inside slider turns back e over the sw. if the ridge starts to giga toward the east, it will eject that sw aspect/wave space is conserved and east it all comes if the ridge does not bump and or retros even further... it doesn't. what you're seeing there is some form of b

it's a difference for the 10/11th period than it was a week ago. (put that old idea to bed ) i've noticed the last 3 or 4 cycles of oper. versions have been sending more n/stream. the southern stream just can't seem to be consistently - if at all - involved, but there's a tendency now that wouldn't take a lot more to be a more of a shallow latitude development, quick hitting event out of that mess. nj model low of sorts

one thing i've noticed also is that we are collectively ( as a group of return engagers in a medium that we probably should all think about moving away from and getting involved with an actual life that will leave a meaningful legacy behind eh hm...) dropping the ball on some very basic synoptic stuff - like 101 stuff that doesn't require a met degree or even a very skilled hobbyist/amateur. like the western ridge... no one is talked about that that i can recall lately. when not completely wrong it's been significantly idiosyncratic in every run i've seen spanning the last 7 days. low bar stuff like that...then, when the other shoe falls on an ugly model run there's kind of only melancholy. a little better leading prep, between that and the nao nuances ...etc...etc... it might protect those that are powerless from letting this shit affect them on a personal level -

from my pad over to Ray's ... we're in kind of a secondary screw zone. like the dildo's target butt was occupied so we were the next choice. lol not sure about RAY ...just going by my memory of his bitching. he can chime in on that... anyway, some of those years, like 2020 ... others have a bit of a bias ( i think ) perception that it was passable. they might have just experienced better. perhaps different standards. i did not make season normal that year here. that's a requirement for me, otherwise it's all failure - just a matter of how more or less egregious it was.

yeah, "it's idiosyncrasies and circumstantial devil -" folks should learn about that quoted string - ... even this time, i remember us discussing/wondering about suppression.

been over this concept 'till the cows came home, too but ... mm, it's probably psycho-babbledee more dire now because there was some pretty big snow years since 2000 ... that's gonna be a pretty big distorting influence. it may very well be that this is a part of cc and the new paradigm moving forward is consummate ass banging winters that cause a diaspora of civility by mid century ( haha )... but, that doesn't account for the fact that big snow seasons will taint perceptions and send the entitlement higher - that's where we are the main cause of all disappointment in life is the failure to realize expectation.