Typhoon Tip

i understand why the nam is doing this and i suggest folks take it more seriously - guarded, but seriously. firstly, from a purely/personal experience with this guidance in the operational usage ...it is not as bad as reputation/court of public abuse letting, at time frames < 30 hours but, that aside ... what i am about to say is no analog, but this is 'circumstantially' beginning to remind me of dec 2005, when this model's forefather version smoked all other guidance in depicting a 'nj model low' type of detonation, where the other guidance' were se of it. the reason it did that is because of the low level thermal packing that axists along an axis from roughly cape may nj to just se of cape cod. the analysis this morning indicates an intense horizontal temperature gradient, which is likely collocated with an actual hydrostatic thickness wall along or near that same axis. as the wind/difluence mechanics approach from the west above that axis, the right entrance of the mid/ua acceleration is likely to enhance systemic up glide along that elevated frontal slope, a slope that is unusually steep. that angle of rise then makes the pseudo adiabatic process very efficient .. increasing buoyancy, which fees back positively concentrating cyclogen more nw of guidance' that may be challenged to resolve this. - this type of smaller scaled circumstance, overall, is something the nam is uniquely qualified to handle. not intending to go completely with the nam ... but the above is the type of correction that requires being nearly on top of the event in order to "see" these physics - they almost need to exist before that correction occurs, because the global models seem to have a weakness in the arena of effectively setting the table with these discrete environmental aspects. ... short term/now-cast

sure looks that way ...

It's definitely one of those situations when your looking at sat/ir loop and your going, 'there's no way this thing ends up east'

ha! maybe attribution helps us here... the pwat growth in the ambience with higher totals everywhere thing that's connected to cc may help us over-achieve around this w-nw arc just sayn'

fwiw - i changed the title of this saga .. it's very short term for doing that but, heh - these models are sorta acting like we still have 3 days left of modeling

it would be so perfect man - i get it... man. it's 28/21 here. i mean, that's the temp and dp spread of lore. if this thing were just 3 ch's nw, we'd be talking 0 ptype contended bliss. although the 06z almost makes me wonder if this is a now-cast coup, incoming... i frankly think it would be just fantastic if the euro and gfs eat meso crow, despite all their super top secret def jam souped-up bad-ass rock star advancements over the last 10 years ... a good ole fashioned positive bust for the underdawgs one thing we have to admit - this pattern didn't fail to produce. i realize the centricity of folks', in needing it outside their actual front door, won't allow them to feel they need to necessarily concur... lol. but they would be outside a fair and objective ability to judge the reality of what's going on with this. this has achieved both nice identification/ recognizing of/for leading indicators, as well, fun for seeing it emerge then having so much tracking opportunity over the last week's worth of model cinema/entertainment chances. the devil being that the system slips 3 ch's too far e ... that's just unfortunately unavoidable some times. sad trumpet.

didn't get up very early this a.m. so likely behind but yeah ... the gfs bumping enough nw at 06z (18 hours lead no less!) like that gives pause. if this goes ahead and verifies .. i want some f'n acknowledgement by this group/social media for the sref. i'm not asking people to give up their impressions of that model system but in the event of this getting a 3-5" snow almost to 495, with 4-7" se, that's not the global models getting credit for that - in fact ... it would be an indictment

i get the sense that this could be one of those scenarios where if there’s going to be a se clipping … the gfs may never model it happening - only initializing as it is happening basically a blind event. sometimes a model just for some reason can’t see it .. rare but they ride it out

meh everyone has their own way of dealing with their angst in this “support group” nothing he’s said or done is really truly injurious - it’s venting … that’s all

it’s been frustrating. everything was basically good except the actual result sometimes you get the bear sometimes the bare gets you. we’ll see but the low frequency PNA is really stressing cyclogen because the whole flow is stretching - very idiosyncratic

ill get back to you in the morning dude I’m on my phone. It’s kind of a pain the ass to type that answer. or maybe Scott or Will

i dunno. this is different than the nw nam bias thing

it's like the last 30 hours of model runs have been oscillating between complete whiffs and dick teasing

i never experienced "busts" until i migrated from michigan back in the mid 1980s to this region of the country. the night of the epic cleveland super bomb of january 25, 1978 the dial-up forecast was "winter storm warning in effect for 6 to 10" of snow... so i guess in the relative sense that was destined to be a bust seeing as we got 32", and blizzard conditions that raged for 22 straight hours, before taking another 30 hours to completely dwindle. but i mean busting like either not getting anything, or, getting everything when forecast to not getting anything. that kind of extreme, i've only experienced in southern new england. biggest neg bust, jan 1987 4th period blizzard watch with 72 straight hours of dire ticker tape scrolls about national guard this and stocking up that dystopia. wake up ... partly sunny. and add insult to the 0 order bust ... it was 9f with 30+ mph wind gusts and i had to walk to school. biggest positive bust, dec 1997 forecast 1-2" of slush ending as light rain, highs in the mid 30s. actual? 17" of snow in 4.5 hours and temperatures never made it above 27 as to this ordeal...i'm not sure this is even a 'bust' per se. i don't think anything was that locked in. i guess in a fair sense we can say it is 'pattern' bust? i mean, typically you don't send a -1 sd to +2.5 pna across the continent and having jack shit to show for it...

you know i remember back in the day .. they used to have a product/publication over at wpc called 'model diagnostic discussion' it was based upon at least a cursory evaluation of the input grid to ferret out errors in the data that could effect the model processing out in time. they'd even give recommendations. like, 'recommend not weighting as much of the eta' or the euro or mrf or ngm. oh man, do you remember the "n"ot "g"ood "m"odel ? just kidding, 'nested grid model' it may be that improvements in data and/or assimilations and both et al, got to where they figured they didn't need that.

lol, what's the expression? 'we've been nam'ed'

well ... irvin berlin wrote, '...dreamin' of a white christmas ...' his song was never written '...entitled to a white white christmas...' perhaps because even the ancients knew, and sung in despondency what they must rely upon for that sanctity. like, the song was always interpreted kinda wrong? it's sung as though it's like december 10 and the visions, looking onward in glowing smiles, for some nostalgia that he cannot wait to get back to... wrong! it should have been december 25th ...about 10 a.m.... and it's 34 fuckum f with cloudy turbid skies over metalic, drizzle filled gray air through the window, air that's fractured by black tree limbs. all over dead leaves. and there's this day-dreamer holding a cup of joe, drawn over with an exasperated desperate expression; he's peering out the window from in this imprisonment of kids promising to make the day a restless din of noise and stress ... now that they are puzzled with what they're supposed to do with these things called 'sleds' they just opened as christmas gifts. in that moment, he's definitely dreamin' of a white christmas

the nam has a nw bias at 60 hours. been pointing this out for years really ... it seems this simple aspect just cannot penetrate heads - so what happens in situations like this, over and over again ( and in a faster/gradient hemisphere as of late, this is common) any 'nw run' of that model, and there's this palpable giddiness that appears to not include the necessary constraint. this time - admittedly - it's a little more difficult because the euro appeared to be a little closer ... yeah, so there's empathy in the set-up 'miss-guidance' intangible here. i get it. i think the back ground is what is toasting this scenario. i mean there's a storm on the maps. a fairly strong one at that. ns should do well...etc. but the back ground state of the local hemisphere has too much x-coordinate value to underpinning wave signal. that i'm firmly confident is related to a badly timed phase 5 mjo dispersing it's turd into an otherwise impressive +pna surge. bit of a destructive/negative interference that quite arithmetically dimmed the ability of this particular atmospheric cinema's interval to really go meridian enough

'syzygy' storm, 1986 i believe it was. then later on 10 years later, the 'megalopolis blizzard,' 1996 ... at first i was thinking there's been a dearth (historically ) of events in the first 10 days of january's. then i'm like, whaaaa. i think it's just the last 10 year's worth of winters doing a fantastic job at gaslighting my memory ..heh. starting to like the 2-6th

'syzygy' storm, 1986 i believe it was. then later on 10 years later, the 'megalopolis blizzard,' 1996 ... at first i was thinking there's been a dearth (historically ) of events in the first 10 days of january's. then i'm like, whaaaa. i think it's just the last 10 year's worth of winters doing a fantastic job at gaslighting my memory ..heh. starting to like the 2-6th edit,wrong thread -

nam typically is nw of guidance means at 60 hr

Not sure I agree with that last sentence there… We are in fact missing this (as is in model ) meteorologically by a very slim margin for error.

yeah discussed that earlier it's an emerging/evolving aspect with the telecons. the sources are differentiating toward more nao, run to run... while pancaking the pna. paraphrasing, it's actually the canonical transition from a -(wpo/epo) +pna hemisphere. when the pna griddles there's a lag correlation to the onset of nao. it really doesn't reduce your storm frequency - it just transitions the storm modes.

maybe start with the thermometer and go from there ?

actually this was the right thread.. anyway, that's a wildly storm prone look that's rather abruptly emerging out of the ens mean/sources ... this operational gfs... obviously the details and dailies are not of much use at this range. this is because there is a whole sale pattern change, moving from -(wpo/epo) +pna, into a neutral-postiive pna vestige under a robust western limbed -NAO. that's inherently a stochastic performance arena for modeling in times like those... but there's thread-able events potentially, as implied by the ens, so seeing it be that way is okay in principle. the thickness ( hydrostatic height ) gradient is quite steep between mt and the ov, and that's powder keg for pac waves that get forced through under the east canadian mode. you guys are a bit beside yourselves for what appears to be a near miss here in the nearer term, but this system is really a positive result for the effort in recognition ( at least .. ) of the potential, so there's a huge positive take away that doesn't ( unfortunately ) d-drip .. but there's a behavior pattern going on that's sort of "intangible" that's better than worse - if that helps