Typhoon Tip

well yeah ...probably not the place for it but the pattern heading into the new year and beyond is revealing in time. pretty significant multi-sourced ens ( and now showing up in long range op ) suggestion now that while we likely lose the -epo tendencies, this takes place in lieu of a -nao ( over the western limb of the domain, too ) emergence that is actually rather canonical for a +pna collapsing toward neutral or even modestly negative, that blocking materializes in the nao domain. this is what i've been trying to describe over years, that the nao is actually directed by the dispersion off the pacific ...etc... not sure ( obviously ) what that will mean in the dailies, but for winter enthusiasts ... it does imply at least we alleviate the implication for a complete winter regression scenario - that was actually hinted through a couple days ago ( in guidance ..) for the times after xmas, because it there was less signal over eastern canada. edit, actually this was the right thread lol

fwiw - the ggem was a tick more meaningful for ri/e ma

they may be indirectly correct ... though it's not abundantly clear given your description here, whether or not they actually know that - sounds like they're labeling something intuitive but the current pac circulation mode is something else. "why" this particular storm is behaving the way it has been, in guidance: it is far more likely that the longer term frequency of the mjo, wrt to the mid and high latitude circulation mode(s) between the n arc of the pac medium ... spanning down stream across the n/a mid latitude continent, are in destructive interference. they are in conflict. the mjo was quite vigorous as it passed recently 3-4-5-6. those correlate just about diametrical to the -(wpo/epo) and +pna pattern motif. you know, the mjo is not forcing the pattern, but does serve to amplify or deamplify. it is a modulator in that sense- i realize i've gone over this a dozen times so this is just for making the point here. what we're seeing with a ho-hum western ridge presentation is just about 95% ( colloquially...) of why this thing is having trouble amplifying as it is approaching the bottom of the trough ... i'm personally very highly confident that the primary sensitivity in why this is struggling to do so, is the handling over western n/a. that western ridge really appears almost arithmetically a medium between the mjo's negative modulation input, on top of a strong +d(pna) leading this event. the very recent subtle improvements in western track/impact implications and so forth, appear to be a stronger wave relay off the pacific - wave centric. maybe that will be enough, maybe it won't... the phase 5 mjo timing with this +d(pna) is just as likely to happen in 1950 as it is in the years since 2015. aside from all that...the excited jet velocity and compression and all that began prior to 2015 anyway.

I like that so far (both the Nam did this also ) you have that short wave anticyclionic curvature starting to materialize ahead of the the trough nadir out there. that’s usually is a prelude to expansion nw of the b-clinic leaf over the top of that mid-level jet torpedo. the low has a chance to jump onto the inside rail so to speak basically tapping into the left entrance region of jet max

gfs made the greatest adjustment west side of all of them last run.

while I agree the nam is not trustworthy in that range per averages, in this particular case i’d caution it’s more telling

Mm flat relays out of the assimilation net can be problematic

Think it’s interesting that the jet mechanics are just starting to nose on board into the denser sounding grid out west and right away, we get some modulation here.

yeah there it is in the operational though. there's an oe signal popping up there in the qpf... that's a cold nascent high there so that's an interesting factor for the coast... a near miss but strong ene ccb fringe would make it winter like in that solution gfs, 18z sorry

going ahead a leveling a stereo type bomb here but leave it to an alias that has the word, "vegan" in it to invoke the irrepressible work of angels and demons ... haha j/k dude

the great boxing day blizzard ( for everyone but tampon tip ) storm

oh, wait a minute ... that's the ensemble mean. shit. well, in that case, that ivt is actually because there's likely some members with either a strong ivt signal or are just bodily west of the mean.

that looks like a long shore fetch setting up... if that happens there's likely to be some oe working with general low level frontogenics ..i could see a plume of light snow in that hinted ivt over pa also clusters in southern me eastern ma and ri

you guys laugh but this is may be a problem propulsion: unknown; no heat plumes; invisible to infrared tech vector: est 4 to 5g turn maneuvers at low altitude lasting hours; rules out any known electrical energy propulsion system. source: unknown apparently from the open ocean, without knowing if they are under or over water. detection: optical only; some form of signal management/concealment ... either some agency of this world has made some stunning advancements in technology and are figuratively lording it over our heads, or this is the most fantastic hoax ever contrived

sounds like t-2 diabetes/advanced insulin resistance started all that

yeah i've come to just stop trying to figure out why the global models are always 10 f too short on highs, summer or winter... i just figure they stop mixing at 1000 mb and assume that's the sfc sigma everywhere, so they basically don't have a 2-meter temp - even though the f'ing product says that

well ... if it's any conciliatory value I was never one of those ( bold ^ ). i wouldn't, because i believe so long as the upward cc trend is not a linear slope, but a curve exponential affair - as it is proving to be ... - all plausible impact/visions should be considered. and, those that would more than likely surprise many. just look at the last 3 years ... no one would have that subtropical cloud aerosols would suddenly drop to the point where the heat budget exploded the way it has.

norlun illusion? it may actually be a kind of ‘echo’ of physics for west positions

yes dude! that is huge, the hudson bay 'marine heat wave' ...which, going forward may prove less like a heat wave and more like point of no return, but we'll see.. but yes, i was noticing that this year in particular, but in previous years ...retarded recoveries in late autumn

you didn't ask for this op ed but ... i began to opine, about 15 years ago, that we seemed to be losing ability to sustain marginal cold (relative to climatology). the evidences of this were nuanced in the early years - probably less detected or noticeable by those with heads buried in the proverbial winter sand. but mixy events began to 'flop' over to wet more than they used to, for example. or, like today ... when extinguishing a cold supply we burst high. we were becoming increasingly more reliant on 'direct feed,' otherwise, the base-line is above average; just a matter of how much or how little in this latter aspect, which is wholly guided by the pattern foot at the times ... this last week is an innocuous sort of example of this. we had an upstream in time and space, -epo cold load. said load effectively 'drained' from the mid latitude continent (used up for lack of better phrase) and we are immediately now finding a way to a 57 pig day. 57? ...it's 54 already. which enters a subtle addendum to all of this. usually we also go above guidance by at least decimals if not intervals of whole degrees, too. we may touch 60? i haven't been paying too close of attention to the day's synopsis because there were bigger fish to smack us across the face with ( while counting what we get to fry haha ) ... maybe this is a cap high anyway ...we'll settle back to just being above normal tomorrow by some unnoticed amount, but it will be above normal until we get a direct feed. Feb 2015 obscured any discussion to not happening, because it was 10f for three straight weeks or something ludicrously negative - but really ... that stretch only made my point. it was an unrelenting hugely negative sd epo/low amplitude +pna that intombed us in a reality avoidance about climate - the more i look back at this last 20 or 30 years... i remember discussion about how the climate zones, moving inevitably north up the eastern seasboard, was promoted with dialogue about how you won't notice when you've crossed thresholds - you'll just sort of notice one day that your fucked for ever getting back to your nostalgia. well ? if the shoe fits. i spend time in the mid atlantic every late autumn since the late 1990s (...fam/holidays..etc...) what i've experienced, particularly the last 4 years, is beginning to remind me of morristown nj. it's almost spot on, really. my sister, "...yeah, we get cold ... maybe even some snow, rarely. but it's gone the next day and two days later its kind of mild" sound familiar? struck me as so when she said it.

this week is a comical folly we get a juicy fast moving wave about .5C too warm for any sne snow, then ... whiffed by a coastal literally within radar scan of the coast late in the week = no snow for xmas consider yourselves served!

did you put your slip and failed recovery fall on instagram yet ...

all the wormhole portals by the alien sentinel drones opening and closing is causing temporal ripple effect in the local space.

in a below normal month no less ... ho man. the chapping of asses is priceless