Typhoon Tip

it's going to make this next 30 yours an interesting sequence of changes. 29 and still air 62 in turbine s gales ... flash freezing cold

near miss last evening huh ... its 29 here right now, classic tuck after it was 39 at 10pm and the rain was ending. if the tuck had happened just 3 hour sooner, we might have turned back back to snow/ice.

... there are still important changes being modeled among the ensemble means out over the pacific, changes that may, and really should, force a downstream ridge over the western mid lat continent. the signal is a favorable modulation for winter enthusiasts. so long as that is the case, there's a reasonable chance that the state of the modeling cinema would modulate that way in the days to come ... i get it that the average user needs to see the operational lines of snow on the mirror with a 20 dollar bill of a pattern rolled up, but in this situation we have to look deeper and wait unfortunately. patience is a virtuosity of principle that's seldom employed in practice. i know it's hard when it comes to this because ... this isn't waiting for vacation day - not quite the same type of anticipation because of the whole addiction thing. haha no but the 18z gfs yesterday took a rather coherent step toward the better, with +pnap, a look that really should be emerging ... not going away. i realize the runs since did just that. the thing is ... the flow looks terribly unbalanced if this present cinema for the 17th -24th were to succeed. if the ens means are correct with that fantastic signal for troughing n-ne of hawaii, the flow across mid lat n/a would almost certainly need to change, and physically driven toward a western ridge. i am wondering if pac changes may flee the runs ... which would be fantastic. it would be like negative time/going backward.

mm didn't really like the direction of the ensemble means overnight... what's interesting is that the pacific outlook/changes appeared to still be in tact as far as spatial and spatial-temporal aspects, but the ens means ( worst offender, gefs ) are actually going the wrong direction with the flow down stream across the continent. the means is attempting less ridge response ..even looking increasing zonal down wind of that deep trough situated n-ne of hawaii. that's the wrong correlation/direction. compare this below to the previous 222 hours, and the modulation is going an unexpected direction. we'll see

it wasn't an "Ayer" event .. lol. i get the context there but there's enough new users and/or youngins amongst us that it's probably taken literally? i can see the take away being 'who cares about Ayer' or something like that anyway it was a ne ct to nw ri and metrowest of boston and up... so sne regional scaled and included much of the interior. too bad i never saved those write ups i made back in the day. i even received accolades for those efforts but i don't have those just laying around and i'm on lunch break and yadda yadda yadda. not sure there is a positive bust in history, dating back to the emergence of satellite and modeling ( anything before that would understandable ...) that can hold a candle to the shear enormity of forecasting 1-3" of glop in the hills and cat-paws in the valley, only have a uniform 15 to 24" fall in 5 hours at 26F !! that's in 1997, too. wasn't like today's standards, but ... it wasn't exactly piece of shit tech either.

This is intended for a long lead experimental outlook. There is a very coherent large scale signal emerging in the deep mid and extended range, roughly 10 to 13 days from now, spanning the Pacific circulation ... and how that transmits forcing across the conus is intriguing. Using the EPS mean from 00z, we see the changes up stream over the Pacific Basin. Below is the D6 hemispheric layout, followed by the D11, indicating a rather rapid onset of wholesale mass field deltas - particularly notable, .. the region N-NE of Hawaii. As the annotation states...it doesn't have to. There are idiosyncratic ways by which the mass of the atmosphere is conserved; given that all this takes place in 3-dimension spatial differentials and ad nausium popsicle headaches... the short version is that it's not always always very visible. but, in the ideal sense, the ridge responds more, and there is a coupled trough response down wind that often hosts index restoration events. The numerical teleconnectors are showing some new sagging in the EPO, with additional amplitude in the PNA. These subtle albeit non-zero value nuances I suspect are the beginnings of suggesting an active interlude ..rough with the timing of the solstic give or take.

yeah ...i'd watch the 20th along the tv/ma route. it's obviously vague at this range but that fits the canonical timing wrt to mode change induced correction events. h.a. and all that ...

i actually thought the teleconnector (numeric) mode review looked a little better this morning. if perhaps only by a small increment, better. warm side of the modes were collapsing neutral amid the various sources (regarding their numbers for key geographic domains) resulted even better +pnap - one that fits the general scope of the pacific mode as we approach the holiday. now, this was last night's business. it's a small increment and it could prove noisy fake. i'm not sure i lean 'noise-bad' though. i will add .. i still think the western n/a continent flow structure could build more ridge out west, given the scale of the height falls n-ne of hawaii. having said that ... the eps is trending toward a better fit - appeasing my personal hang up on that.. heh. but here we can see the most improved version of this +pna to date. this proooobably has a few members actually developing events at this point, but ... in deference to reality here, we are talking 276 hours so there's no blame to go around yet -

yeah, the ribbon echo squall might have some performance along it. but out ahead, i suspect some sporadic power outages ... perhaps a bit more concentration of that over the coastal plain of se zones, but more like a climate wind scenario. the low is 990 mb up in vt. if that were deeper perhaps. not sure the pgf is really huge enough here. standard ekman reduction/frictional drag may be enough to keep the gust maxes down without a lot of thermal inversion.

funny thing is... wind excitement is almost always over sold in forecasting, because the sounding stability wasn't quite enough. so which is it. lol

what's really needed for the morally well grounded wind damage hobbyists is for gradient to be squeezed in the region south of the warm boundary, and west of the cold front. that's a. then, the actual vertical sounding through the pgf to suggest open or at least limited positive static stability. 7c/km should do it... if these aren't apparent, then the wind will spear the skies overhead a not be realized in the lowest levels. this thing reminds me of a wind event from a synoptics recently where se mass took a decent hit ... but nw of boston's inversion remained just enough intact to rescue them from the burden of having fun and excitement -

lol, oh ...that's the other thing too - models will tend to magnify everything that emerges over the model horizon; deescalation seems to be an automatic requirement. haha i like the metaphor of the new moon just over eastern horizon as the sun sets in the west. looks like a sci-fi dystopian collision sequence is getting under way... but, rest assured, as the ominous rises over those next couple of hours ...it just fades into the same old ordinary smaller orb of mystery that for some weird reason, empirical data correlates to sci-fi dystopian murder rate increasing at the same rate that the moon's collision chances went down ... fascinating. humanity ftl - anyway, just havin' fun there. the point is, the model magnification thing -

heh ..that's a mantra but it's not one that is actually very well supported in data. in fact, when it comes to transitioning the eastern mid latitude continent from warm to cool, that transition direction tends to verify faster than initial guidance' out at the temporal range of whence the confidence improves. transitioning from cool to warm ... that is typically when there is pre-lapsing. just in case: as point of eye-rolling ..., this shouldn't be confused with actual weather tending to over perform warmth in general. relative to any pattern foot, spanning the last 20 years - and especially so over the last 10 of those two decades - if the dailies end up warmer than guidance, that does not appear to be so much pattern handling, but in an all dimensions aspect. there's a tendency for cold air masses to modify ticks warmer, relative to guidance, and warmer one's to over perform.

ribbon echo squall event written all over this

there's a new discovery in global environmental science known as climate change ...

Lol... i never said he wasn't trolling people. i said, he's not really saying anything that isn't true. i guess for me ... if there's elements of fact and reality in the post i don't really get the imposition. guess i'm lucky in that way. doesn't bother me.

the funny thing about the poster's content, he seldom says anything that is not true, or if so ...it's patently clear it's sarcasm? i think this emotional quotient is too much in here. there are those that [probably] have created a kind of codependency to needing model cinemas in order to evoke certain moods, then .. .it is shared among like others with the same thing going on ... but it doesn't lend to lucidity with reality much of the time. and, it's rubbing some the wrong way. sure, the obvious argument for that is, go somewhere else where the bias doesn't bother or isn't being exposed. but, there's probably those that want to be a part of the weather forum, but have become like people voting for the wrong principled candidate simply because they can't stand this WOKE imposition. sort of a metaphor for the same thing in here. interesting. i happen to not have an issue with Forky because again ... i think he's ( or she? ...really don't know) is just trying devil's advocate much of the time, and the best way to do that is to use actual facts - which gets in the way of the mood. other's should learn to ignore it.

haha ...what part of the last 20 years of least excuse imagined to out perform warm guidance should lead us to any doubt

yeah, i know who he is. have spoken to him before. back in 2005 actually, and come to think of it ( ironically...) we were discussing this particular solar period 2020 -2030 at the time. wow. weird. anyway, i don't have as much knowledge about the solar cycles. my knowledge fades after uv --> ozone destruction and that particular correlation. in the general sense, active summer and autumn + tends to correlated with +aos, because uv associated with solar storms is a cosmic cleaner. lower ozone changes the temperature conductivity at the densities of the stratosphere... but there could be exceptions in the peridiocities. seems there's where that focus is there.

not sure what the skill is here ... my impression is not great, but ... there's a big time high altitude heat intrusion modeled by the day-10 gfs over on the asian side of the pv, and it's intense enough that it's stressing the field/'kidney beaning' that's usually consistent with ssw, that much i know. but this below doesn't always signal one is imminent, either. it has to be qualified as a downwelling and mulit-layer distorting which cannot be determined yet. it also doesn't fit the climate puzzle with qbo/solar leading ... no it's interesting. something big is assessed either way to distort the planetary vortex as much as that is, tho. with all this early season epo/wave breaking at high latitude had me wondering if a big planetary wave dispersion event may be on the verge of taking place despite the climate background. it would not necessarily reflect an ssw, but a very deep wpo out there that is coupled to the troposphere - that's code for splitting the vortex. but we'll see.

check out the cfs extended so long as we're in eye-candy mode

the answer is yes

not to be condescending to anyone ( really... ) but curves that curve up? mmm. i don't feel that specific correcting behavior has raised enough eyebrows, how those curves associated to the warming world have all been going up more like boners. i get the sense that climate models have been by and large more linear in their deep vision rise-rates of global temperature. when present observation manifold continues to suggest far more synergistic system responses than a mere linear plodding rise, it's all been wrong on the dire side of error. it really should have sparked more concern than it has. i've always thought that. you know .. as an afterthought - this is a growing frustration. the world is hesitant to accept that the ways-and-means that's delivered the world into its modern din is really the where sin is. because obviously that impugns all progresses. - but i'll also add, it's an affront ... an affront to the spirit of the multi-generational ingrained cultural values; to suggest it should have less value? this seems to be a common failing of humanity, the "because my grandfathers and their grandfathers" logic. therefore, "it can't be wrong" the frustration isn't just that wall of impenetrability - it's that now we have to convince the minds on the other side of that wall that it is not only true, but is truer than we thought and happening much sooner. perhaps existentially threatening. ...that, and the fact that GW is by and large invisible to the actual corporeal senses... the vast majority of populations are not really equipped to think outside the box of what their five senses tell them about the universe within which they exist ( getting into a deeper philosophy ...that's the fault of evolution! ) ... but, think about this: tell a person at the water cooler about cc this and that, and they'll politely acknowledge and raise that eye brow, return back to their desk, within moments? re-engaged with whatever it was they were doing and that's that. however, punch that person in the face with a cc fist, that becomes a priority, right quick! consequence has to be obvious to human beings. in fact, the fascinating conjecture follows, doth human innovation outpace the evolutionary placement of a consequential sense? i've mused recently, 'the greatest natural disaster to have ever struck this planet may in fact turn out to be the arrival of human innovation' integrating that limiting capacity for out-of-box analytical cause-and-effect and consequence, into a global population, one that is heavily biased/burdened by said progresses and culture to begin with, this particular form/type of insidiously existential threat is cloaked by a particularly dense form of plausible deniability.

it's a deceptively cool look next week if/when employing the specifics of these operational runs. from orbit ...this looks like a warm pattern - ish. but, closer inspection shows that through the mean of those days there is +pp situated n of the buf-bos latitude. that's a cooler lower tropospheric tendency with that. i like to call these 'top heavy ridges'. they can't always be seen by rip-read 500 mb chartage. they are also the bane of most people's outdoor plans in april lol

adding to this ... for a change the n-of-maine polar high is actually trending more resistant for a change. typically we get inside of 120 hours and it's sliding off in the trends -