Typhoon Tip

Unfortunately ..this event isn't likely to produce much of either. 5" of snow is likely tops. .35" glazing where/if all ice.

That's a nice comparison to 1994 ... I think we must've talked about it before as memory serves, but one of those systems was an IP carpet bombing while heavy blowing and drifting OEs banding was pummeling underneath. Strange. It even came out as far as Acton where I was living then, and I remember at one point we had 1/4 mi vis from breezy 20:1 shattering snow, while the sound of hail on the car tops. I'd never seen that combination of ptypes and haven't really since.

The Euro's 12z, 120 hour layout is right out of a mid March winter storm set up... HUGE thickness dipole across the eastward extension of the polar boundary - March's and even latter February's this gets to be interesting. Here we are signaling why storms at that time of year can once in a while, massively over-achieve. The only limitation to this one is likely to be the attending S/W is probably being attenuated for moving through a very compressed field, otherwise, in principle, that could be a very dangerous set up. As is, it probably means that it would likely over produce where ever it is precipitating as the storm formulates through that gradient pathway -

Not quite as cold as the GFS but damn close ... Close enough that I suspect we could be coalescing a consensus. GFS has moved maybe 70 total miles in 3 days of guidance. The Euro's getting away with not moving as much as it's just cooling everything off - reluctantly getting to a similar result. The surface PP in the Euro solution looks more like it's bending around BL cold forcing than "admitting" the GFS is right about a low down there... haha sumpin' li' ghat

agreed ... I add it's also on the table, too.

Scott already mentioned it but here's an example of how to get a duration event in a fast flow... you can see the elongation here is making up spatially for the rate of motion being so fast. Heh.. another way to look at it. D= R*T ... when the D is very large ( like ^ ), then the time ( duration of the event in this context...) becomes large. 100 MI/40 mph versus 1,000 mi/ 40mph

I'm at 15.5" for the season. I think my seasonal average is 58 here ? Will? someone knows...

yeah, can't disagree in principle. It's just physically not happening when the flow is so fast. Big systems require big curvature, which speed fights curvature in the purely Newtonian sense. It just exceeds the Corriolis parameter and blah blah blah you know what I mean but getting out there in time, there is signs of a relaxed EPO with a rising PNA ...sort of a reversal... It's vague for the time being but if it gets more coherent... probably favors more of a larger body event. you're right about the method for duration in a fast flow. You just need to get sort of luckily positioned in a dynamics series, and it becomes like 36 hours with a couple of waves going by just underneath. it's pretty much the only way to do it when a balloon ride competes with air line traffic velocity patterns. j/k

Yeah, not sure I agree tho - I get the excitement but the compression/speed is a huge limiting factor to big dawg constructed events. But that should be okay.. you load up enough nickle and dimes and have them succeed, you're getting there in the aggregate - and in terms of entertainment value it's probably better because of the constant dopamine heh. seriously though -

I know ... that solution would go a considerable distance toward mending broken hearts -

Yeah, the solution didn't really evolve S .. but either way, it's not been the snowier of guidance. no worries for snow mongering, considering the product and range -

Yeah, the problem with big events is that it's like cashing out an IPE bank account - "P" meaning planetary, so integrated planetary energy. There's a kind of "extratropical IPE budget" in a sense. You can be peppered by nickle and dimes, or use up the IPE in a go. That's why when you look at the days and sometimes weeks following historic big dawgs, you're typically waiting a while and enter a kind of post mortem dullard state of inactivity that protracts. So, "Big events" are tied to larger scaled mass field perturbations. Those don't come around that often, which means ... big events don't come around that often. Dated material at this point and getting old school, but that's really what the Archembault master's thesis was really useful for back in the day: exposing that, statistically. It used to get referenced quite a lot more frequently ... one can google it and read the paper and not get it because no one in society knows how to read and objectively intellectualize content any more ... but it is still out there. HAHA j/k (does seem like we're nearing a "stupifying idiot-zombie" crisis at a broadly scoped societal scale, though) It really can be described in a simple sentence. The atmospheric pattern remains the same until acted upon by a force that is sufficient to disturb the status quo. Borrowed from Newton's First Law of Mechanics? absolutely . For atmospheric phenomenon, the disruption is defined by a changing PNA, or EPO, or AO, or WPO ...or NAO, etc etc.. That's why we discuss d(PNA) and not PNA. Because the former is ( d = delta = "changing" ). You look at the PNA and says -1.00, then three days later it says -.5 ... that is a +d(PNA), or rising value. Rising PNA uuusuually = d-drip chances. Now, just imagine all these indices that are defined ( and in reality ...there are infinite domain spaces; there's no real boundary, but some regions do show better correlation in the statistics so boundaries are determined that will always be estimates) having their own changing modes. yeah ...

NAM appears to be coming in S ...but it's only out to 60 hours, and the model is piece of rhino dung at this range ... just sayin'

My fav 00z operational model run was the GGEM ... not for any predictive value ( of course ..haha ) but just the cinema. Given a small modulation, that was 3 events in a really beautiful temporal distribution - about every 3 days on the button. It's been a long, long time since we had a steady diet of nickle and dime potentials in an ensemble line modeled set-up. You could be enjoying a nice low end 6" warning event, and a half day later you're already in a winter storm watch. This happened in 2015, 1995, 1994 ... 2008 ( I think..) it's been that long as far as I recall.

Seemed like we bottomed out in temperatures during climo cold week, too - check that... but at least around here... I had multiple nights below 0 surrounding the 24th of January, with highs at 20 or less. It's been chilly overall..but that was kind of an embedded nadir

This event - to me - looks like it has the same circumstance of uncertainty at this range, that plagued ( and still does...) this D6 system in the foreground. It's evolving along a compressed/very fast flow. Excessive needle threading requires precision that's going to be hard to come by at a D5 or 6 lead... For now, the tracks seem to be N of the triple point lat/lon nexus we see for the 6th. All guidance I've seen from 00z have a low up NW of ALB, But like the 6th, the speed of the approaching wave/storm mechanics is so fast it outpaces the lower tropospheric ability to modulate/"scour out" the cold. This leads to the IB pulse snows that then go to pellets S and perhaps staying S N - circumstantially, this latter obviously favoring central and NNE if the track stays - not sure we can count on that, however. There seems to be a bit of hint to more secondary in the EPS and GEFs..which may be an indicator for a future correction but that's purely supposition for now.

It may snow pretty hard for a couple hours in NE Mass in that Euro solution. Even with Pivotal's 6-hourly cinema speed, it looks to me like there's a pretty good isentropic burst between hours 84 and 90, which probably means blossoms intensity on the ground up there. I'm not looking at any interpretive MOS-related graphics...just noting the QPF distribution/surge from Brian's to E of Boston axis that suddenly appears at hour 90. In fact, all the guidance I've seen now are doing something similar. Its a matter of when in the total system translation. The UKMET has the "in like a wall" look at 87 over western zone. Kind of like it's flurries to 1/4 mi vis in 5 to 10 minutes. GGEM is pure sleet event - bit of an operational outlier but possible... The GFS brings those 2.24" diameter jagged-edged cotton ball thumpers before flipping the Pike to drizzle.

This is the way I have been leaning ...more GFS in this synoptic circumstance. This is more of an intangible - meaning difficult to put in empirically backed terms ... - but the Euro's decimal small bias to back hold events, tends to tip the flow vaguely too much S-N. Contrasting, the GFS with its decimal small speed bias, will tend to stretch the flow W-E. Before applying either of these models to the circumstantial hemisphere, that circumstance thus favors the GFS' handling in tis case. Compression is making the GFS better this season on whole, btw. LOL Like I said ..difficult to prove, because their handling biases are pretty vague at this point. But the ultra thread needle rifle patterns, decimals changes in track mean significant profile differences over smaller distances. Fwiw, I am noticing that of the corrections, altho small in either case, the Euro's been doing more of it. This is still also a blazing fast minor event - it's probably a good thing that this junket last night used up everyone's attention because this thing for the 6th is like a 3.5 hour burst of moderate snow, 1.5 hours of lighter pingers, ending as drizzle or valley freezing drizzle. 3-4" maybe a 5" and I like your story line there where the temp pops with the occluded boundary. Could jump from 34.5 ish to 43 for an hour or two with mad dripping. Kind of like a 00z UKMET on whole. Fast fast fast. I'm even imagining this thing speeding up if anything by an hour or two.

Holy smokes!

altho I haven’t seen the 0 GFS

American vs European

Heh. Too early to discount tho; really guarded. Things can turn around really fast - as much as you’ve been break pumping I’ve been trying to emphasize not to get caught up in the weeds of this thing. The only reason we are even normal (if even below here and there ) is this EPO anomaly - which is a bit of a La Niña anomaly in itself. It’s been predominating the circulation mode for 6 on in weeks. If the faucet shuts off our rest state without it defaults to above normal + any embedded warm bursts. Very different world. It’s just that for the time being … we are protected by modeling. And possibly that the La Niña isn’t firmly coupled … but that takes a broader analysis

Been an exceptional year for shorter lead model fights. 96 hrs and these models are throwin haymakers …in 2025

K, soo at the end of the week the solar minimum ends LOL

I'm thinking compromised solution at the moment, just because there are not enough compelling reasons to go with either