Typhoon Tip

Albeit tedious for some perhaps ... this really is an interesting combination of meteorological circumstances going on today. In one perspective, there is a +2 (est) SD warm mid level ridge anomaly ballooning over the eastern U.S. through tomorrow. Yet in an excessive contrast to what that would suggest is going on beneath ... we see temperatures struggling to make 55 F at the surface, with DPs in the upper 20s! Heights > mid 570s DM with DPs in the 20s can happen, and in fact, it's not actually that unusual in early to mid spring warm spells. Early season continental return flows of warm air are often moisture challenged because of various reasons in the environment.... However, it's getting toward May and there's early green-up well underway; it is really getting late to see this combination. On hi res visible loops you can also see a diffused BD that is moving SW through the region behind the primary/main baroclinic axis extending W/E through the M/A, as denoted by WPC's surface analysis. It may be too subtle to really pick up but the satellite sort of betrays that 2ndary push. Over particularly eastern New England, you can observer low cloud swaths being immediately eroded back SW because at least for this 12 to 18 hour period underway, the late polar air intrusion is thick enough to scour out from the N/NE. It's a saving grace if your a light sky fan because the NAM cloud machine numbers were suggestion a much murkier vibe for today. So at least the sun will off-set the annoying late season chill. Meanwhile. there is interesting convection bubbling up over N PA. Early low angle sun off the turrets of hose CB towers was really neat to see with Dupage's new super hi resolution. Their region temperature are not too dissimilar to ours ... this is probably overrunning convection, while it atones to the idea that this is a shallow air mass. I bet it's not much more than 1,300 meters of the sounding over an extended sprawl - in other words, the sounding everywhere is probably pretty sloped positively below 4K feet or so. In total, although these observations this morning seem rather extreme ...this is actually typical climate behavior at this time of year. We had a couple days of solid 80 to 85 F weather ...then a cyclone moves N through the MV toward the Lakes. The deep layer flow structure that associated with that, and how it 'buckles' the flow out ahead over eastern Canada, typically does promote the genesis/strengthening of surface high pressure over that region of N/A. This transitive relationship et al forces the farther E extension of the warm front ...or frontal tapestry in general, to sink S ... warm-up gets interrupted whether it's a BD proper or some variation therein. Anyway, mid 70s on machine guidance returns for Tuesday, which is also not unusual. The interruption goes back the other way for 6-12 hours just before said cyclone's main cfropa finally cleans house of it all. Honestly, ...since I have lived in this region of the country I can count on one hand the years I have experienced end to end un-interrupted warm departures in April/May. Dr Colby and I once purely for muse went back across the dailies from April and May, 1976, as they are recorded up at UML. That would have been an amazing experience. There were like four days in a row of 90 + weather ( some days peaked at 96!) over the Merrimack Valley region and throughout NE.... Then, when it broke, ...it didn't event exact revenge like it did in 1998, by snowing within a week... It went back to mid 70s...and other than one or two brief stints of mid 50s ...as far as we could find the majority of days through May that year were well above normal.

this happens in my place too... The threshold appears to be right around 80 F. Anything there or exceeding and the heat pools upstairs trapped there. By the time the evening calls for escaping the day ...it may be 90 up there while it's 68 in the living room. So I too ran the AC -

wow that could be a humdinger on the Euro for the eastern Lakes

yeah... I was talking to some other Mets elsewhere about this very same thing. It's actually flipped aggressively compared to the complexion of the last several springs perhaps -. This is also a winter-like look the GFS is trying and clawing and scraping unrelentingly to set up; you can almost sense it's raging stubborn battle against seasonal change and the sun ongoing in each successive cycle of that model. And this is sort of been more than less endemic to the CMC and Euro, too. Even when we have big bulging potentially warm ridges, the engineer weird ways to slice cold air under the ridge some 1,000 miles or more aggressive than even climatology for that sort of thing... and they end right too! Details aside, at this point we have a winter time pattern super-imposed under a May sun in the blend of the runs .. Weend up with 50s and early 60s with wet days followed by tinge frosts clear mornings... just to keep the gardening season on stand-by indefinitely, just to smack faces of those with visions of summer - ha. I'm also wonder what the summer pattern/default look will be or how this will evolve into one... Sometimes, these April looks have a way of being genetic descending and you end up with a relaxed version or some variation of the whatever plagues you in mid spring. Wondering if end up with one of those Chicago death heat years while we're jammed in an eternal NW flow. Who knows -

right - that too... The lowering grandient means the "pattern" modulation its self is faster... I thinking that as quick as the NAO domain can vary inside of a month, it may even have gradient rate-of-change in May, which makes the correlation tuff.. I just i dunno i think I still don't feel comfortable thinking -NAO in May is completely useless - not that anyone said it is of course. Oh wait -

it's probably a threshold argument ...as an afterthought. Most NAOs don't plummet to say, -4 SD... that/those are rare by definition of that number. Combining that with shrinking R-numbers...it makes sense that -1 is less effectual at modulating the temperature in May than it would be in January - duh. But... I'd argue that if we get the index to a threshold of extremeness the flow probably does get overwhelmed and modulation ensues. ...think of it as .. all -2 and softer are canceled out of correlation, which is the bell curve mass of them all. But, the few that may go to -3 and -4 do; it's a matter of not happening enough to show up in those smoothed linear products.

The 1977 snow event was immediately preceded by a west based NAO and if one wants to they can track both the impulse and attending cold 850 plume right back to a conveyor/source that is dictated by the curvilinear flow around said high latitude blocking.. Now, granted ...that's an extreme case... However, the data/application in general for that product ( I don't believe; but could certainly be wrong) above does not consider the NAO into quadrature - which means... that it's a conditional correlation depending on the specifics like you mentioned. None of which ( I don't believe; but could certainly be wrong) Kevin has in mind when he avers blanket statements like he usually does -

Well now ... this is all one helluva convincing piece of sophistry; let's go with this, gang!

I was actually thinking we may not have seen the last snow in the elevations up N... the oper. GFS plumbs a 530 DM height core over Buff by D9 and that drifting E would pelt PF with grappies over to 'chutes. Remember 1977 folks? Oh wait - ... Obviously all that's lower probability but it's not impossible. I'd love to see Kevin in Vegas betting black-jack odds based upon his same analytic skills with atmospheric indexes... I wonder how long he holds onto that sweet estate up on the hill in CT in that scene -heh

This is not true. jesus My "theory" is that Kevin must be part of the macro-social engineering project/experiment amid present day western cultural society's to get belief systems adhered to this whole "alternative facts" phenomenon.

I've lamented 2005 in the past but ... it can be worse guys - as bad as the last 48 hours has been, now imagine this precise condition characterizing three straight weeks unrelenting. That was 2005 roughly May 10 to June 2nd. The whole way. actually today is mid 50s and that would be an improvement. Whole different universe Friday afternoon. actually tomorrow may not be too bad... if that gyre gets abeam of our latitude, which most guidance suggests it finally will, the wind backing around that little amount combined with high hot sun this time of your could create some skylights.

still looks odd on the 12z's across the board with so much SW penetration/stalling of surface boundary with that much height rise over top. That's configuration, is frustrating anyway but here the runs are really blithely ignoring their own depictions of ridge ballooning ... almost entirely even as early as D3.5 by laying that boundary down as far south as WV with heights rising the whole way.... It may not, but I feel there's room to correct those fronts N with the exception of the New England coastal plain - there I'd have less issue with perhaps a shallower version of that cold - note the Euro has +14 C at BVY Mass with -2 C at PWM on the lower Maine Coast. That's seems a bit extreme for this late in the year - not impossible, but a tamer BD air mass seems in order.... We'll see -

it wouldn't

This ordeal from Sunday through next Tuesday this up-coming week is a bit unusual even for our standards here upon the SNE penisula. At times over the springs of lore, we muse how the atmosphere seemingly succeeds in a break-down of physical laws of nature, inventing forces to least excuse imaginable keep conditions face-smacking deliberately AT warm weather enthusiasts. It's really pretty remarkable what the consensus of guidance is pulling off to reach that goal, yet again. Take the Euro operational ... it has a smooth bulging ridge with almost no visible confluence over Ontario flexing through the period; yet, some how finds the physical momentum to cut a front so far SW underneath the ridge rim that it's actually cutting bodily under the ridge's core itself (let alone the rim as is more typical)...all the way to the Del Marva, where heights may be 590 dm at max. That's aggressive even for our standards.. I think it's an exhausting momentum variation though.. The D4 has a pretty impressive anticyclonic wave break look to the flow over more western Ontario/S of James Bay, prior to the ridge's amplitude, and that sends "enough" denser air/high pressure to take advantage of flat region between the App. cordillera and the open cold ocean. Once you dump a dense air mass into that region it will move SW under it's own synoptic scaled weight regardless of the 'appearance' of the steering field aloft.

Heh...not to be a dink but, "BIG" cut-off ? I get you mean, tho. For the general reader, ...this kind of opening/filling closed low that ends up as a damped(ing) open wave as it escapes our latitudes, they are sensibly more akin to warm-fronts? The air mass behind them is definitively warmer when that sort of synoptic evolution unfolds. The air mass that precedes in the transport media ahead of the low level pressure pattern is where all the "cold" actually is - or in this case, putrid Atlantic Labrador poop. So you're socked in with misery mist and rains ....and then, the sky is bright on the SW horizon, and suddenly it's a west wind with temperatures rising, even though there is no warm boundary per se on the surface analysis'. Almost like it evolves into a warm frontal wave... I've seen variations of this in late winters too, where you get a cold high parked N and wave approaches from the S and it's all CCB...but the air mass behind isn't advecting cold, it's actually transporting modified Pacific rotted air... So it's warmer immediately after. This ordeal this week strikes me as that sort of set up, only up the dial a ways. In fact, I was just reviewing the 00z EPS mean and it's really kind of gone back to a solid 2 to 3 day look of well above normal, if/when just going by the smoothed geopotential medium and anomalies therein.. The operational version, however, has a deep transit SPV over Ontario during the max of the ridge evolution ...which it uses to generate stronger surface high that effectively prevents the extent of warming as portrayed/suggessted by its EPS mean. It argues the operational run is an outlier of sort with that warm denting presence. Not sure which way to go on that...but, that deep massive gyre rolling through D 6 over Ontario looks suspiciously vestigial to the Euro's old bias of drilling heights too prodigiously in late medium ranges.

pretty classic yeah. but (not that anyone really thinks so..) that's technically not a BD.. the front comes through the day before and the high builds in and noses down as it moves by to the N over the next day - completely different evolution compared to 00z and why obviously a D9 is a joke... Might be more of a BD farther down the EC. annywho, I do believe we are going to get unusual early heat at some point this year. It may not be that gig per se but we keep seeing this tendency toward -PNAPs and we've already verified two 20+ers as a direct result of a couple of them actually verifying... It just wants to this time. It's also something we haven't seen in recent springs as we've had four years running of BDs or/NW flow types that ended up into uber dry summers. But this time, I think we are setting the table for a summer with more of an oscillation of heat and thunder, just based on these mid spring trends - We'll see.

Oh ...heh, you know me - i don't do specifics too well. f if can't recall dates worth a shister either. but my original 'awe' this morning was based upon 20 to 22 C at 850 on the Euro, which on April 30th I know I have never seen. ...I remember that hot air in April of 2003 and we managed 96 as the hottest ... but that's says nothing about 850, no -

12z run backs off a tad... it's all probably bs ...

holy crap... that's like really rare guys. the GEFs mean really spares (or harms...depending on one's point of view) the northeast by NOT having a period of northwest flow at mid levels prior to the ridge apex in space and time having it's fullest affect on the region. that's code for no typical front side bd event to retard the heat down to half or less residence. it actaully goes from WSW to SW to W to WSW during about a four day stint in that 00z blend/evolution, which is means it just sort of gets ridiculous and stays that way. still, ... we are protected by D8+ ...and I think also the fact that it seems to be having trouble getting closer in time ...could all just be part of the illusion

hard to ignore though ...jesus wow. i got like 9 out of the 12 GEFs with an eastern ridge that looks borderline historic for so early -

yeah... i'm gonna go ahead and take the under on the D10 Euro 101 F for Logon look ... That's pushing climate boundaries as an understatement. The D9 20 C's at 850 mb poised to move in ..then, growing in areal coverage and also warming to 21 or 22 C is probably some sort of record that's never been achieved at that altitude, latitude, and date. At least, ...I've never heard of that sort of temperature layout at that altitude on April 30 over PA and SNE... The other thing, this is now the third day I have seen this -PNAP warm look on D9-10... which means, why isn't on D6-8 now? Answer, because it's not getting into shorter ranges - which makes me wonder.

Man, for warm weather enthusiasts that D 8 through 10 evolution of the operational Euro from 00z last night is superb eye-candy. Hate to say ...but again, as I mentioned yesterday (and it persists) the signal is there for a warming trend as we close out the month. Obviously these individual runs of x-y-z model for a-b-c specifics beyond D5 or 6 should strain believability .. to put it nicely.. Having said that, every member of the GEFS and the blend therefrom are/is flagging a -PNAP configuration to the flow ... taking hold post the 27th or so. It'll be interesting to see if that evolves for something we haven't seen since... gosh, I wanna say 2009? and that's bona fide early season big heat. ...

In any event.... I guess there's some boredom kicking in to get the stream of conjecture flowing down the pathways of willy nilly warmth on a D10 anything.. haha. Ah, ... long summer in route... I will say that the idea of a warm end of the month isn't new in what's believable in the dying teleconnector correlations, and/or the general tempos of the long lead individual depictions and so forth. Magnitude and timing is up in the air. It could also be one of those things that plagues the D9 charts until it finally verifies around the time the kids go back to school - one of THOSE summers. heh. However, both recent run ins with 80+ weather did start out as ridge signals much like this... so, perhaps seasonal trends offers some limited confidence.

The GOM warming isn't trivial though. Will may be right in concept .. however, raising the SST by any amount has an impact on Delta(H) exchange rates, which is in part dependent on the air's heat sink in the total coupled system. Because of that, as the SSTs rise, the effectiveness on "chilling" the air mass does decline. However, ...if a near-by over land, early season air mass is very dry at 90 F (not atypical for early season warmth in the NE U.S.) and then we're talking about the difference between 45 and 41 F early spring SST's, the idea of that being more than negligible strains believability at bit. There is also evidence/papers out there (refereed) that discuss evidences in deep sea biota that suggest the Lab. Current has been steadily weakening over the last 100 years. Combining that with, or removing it, as part of GW is a monstrous task.. Nonetheless, if that trend continues decade after decade like that ...eventually the southern nose/termination waters may start to reflect that change - who knows if we are there, or if this is just some temporary thing. By the way , there is a ST low designated 1,000 or so naut mi WSW of the Azores if anyone is interested - pretty fantastic for this time of year.

What's funny about that panel is that the surface depiction for that same time implies about 54 F at NE Mass, with a BD jammed up under those heights clear to HFD. Seeing as we're talking hypotheticals (D10 Euro) ...we should point out for folks that there is a mega high pressing ESE through Ontario as that big mid and u/a 'magma chamber' bubbles it's way west through the EC...such that any BD would almost have to cut and gash its way SW - it's really like this run has an agenda to bring a hot pattern to everywhere except the bottom couple hundred MBs