weatherwiz

I hope this bitterly cold doesn't screw up the Gulf of Mexico too much...I want 70's dewpoints in here by May. But hey...the deep south steals our snow, maybe we'll steal their severe

Already looks like 1-2+ in/around New Orleans

7" report from Hayes, LA!

I'm sure we'll some some whacky totals because people are measuring drifts

6z NAM bufkit has about 10-11" for BTR GFS not too far behind

They must think the world is ending

4.5" report in Grand Lake, LA...a bit less than 20 miles from the Gulf.

Are people freaking out there?

could be a different story in northeast Florida/southeast Georgia. I'm still thinking we see some ice storm warnings at some point. Maybe with PM package

6z NAM for LFT

This is epic

I was just going to make a post and say the radar there looks better than anything we've seen here (winter wise) in a while

Ehh you know what let’s just keep this brutally cold stretch we’ve been in through February. It will make that first 60’s and 70’s in March AMAZING

More added now. Curious if we see any ice storm warnings in southeast Georgia and Florida Panhandle.

At least we know the KFS runs off of IPA alcohol content. Who the hell knows what the Mark model runs off of.

Certainly not the mark model

Agreed.

Speaking of bufkit, I wonder if this should have been a major flag. The snow ratio (using cobb method) was all over the place...it looked like an seismograph after an Earthquake. I wonder if that should have been a clear cut signal that outside of heavier banding, the ratios and snowgrowth would be pretty bad.

It's awesome how great of a tool bufkit is for diagnosing snowfall. That was illustrated beautifully...both hourly rates and duration.

I gotta stop getting so heavily influenced by the cute SLP/QPF maps...that's what tends to get me, especially when you'll have say like the GFS which isn't going to resolve some of the finer nuisances like the mesos would so it has that beautiful looking QPF shield. Gotta get these questions embedded into the noggin: 1) Does the QPF on that widespread of a scale make sense? 2) If that QPF makes sense, what is happening with that QPF (which this question could have a subset of several additional questions)? 3) What is going on with llvl and mlvl storm evolution and how is that impacting overall lift? Is there going to be a heavy reliance for narrow bands of frontogenesis or are we looking at a larger scale source for greater and more intense banding? How this precipitation shield evolved...IMO the NAM and Euro really nailed it but I can remember that 12z NAM run from Friday...seemed like so many were quick to discount it because the precip shield didn't make sense...well it did make sense and the reasons why it made sense, verified nicely. Heavier stuff northwest, kind of crap in the middle unless you got lucky with some narrow bands, and then heavier stuff northeast.

I'm pissed at myself for going 5-8" for such a large area but I was unsure how to really translate all the concerns into map form lol. The swaths of highest totals ended up being where I was thinking and there was pretty good support for that. This is why sometimes QPF is one of the last things I'll really look at. You start looking at QPF output right away and the beer goggles go on. I mean you can get a general sense of what QPF will be like anyways assessing everything. I am glad though I didn't go bonkers with those amped solutions starting arising in the typical 72ish hour time frame.

It does look beautiful outside, everything caked in snow with blue skies. This makes winter and frigid temperatures more enjoyable and tolerable.

Have to give some kudos to the NAM here. I don’t understand why everyone is always so hot and heavy to just toss it, especially when it doesn’t show a solution that is unwanted. It did a phenomenal job hitting at that northwestern band, kind of crap in between and then heavier banding for northeast areas. The whole process leading up to this storm and then the nowcasting period shows exactly there is more to just forecasting snow based off of QPF and figuring out snow ratio and it goes to show that QPF can’t just be taken at face value. A lot of wheels should be spinning in one’s head when assessing QPF. From a forecasting perspective though, a lot of how this storm played out went exactly how several mentioned. There were concerns about snow growth, rates, and ratios outside of the banding and that would heavily influence totals. The challenge is, how the heck do you portray that on a snow map? You really can’t…probably best to just be as cautious as possible with the totals and mention localized higher amounts.

Kind of difficult to get a good reading with the wind but seems about or around 4”. Will wait for final regional snow totals but going to be a good ole D on the forecast

In a dead zone right now