weatherwiz

Excellent post!

BDL record check: 10:00 AM obs: 77 (+2 since last hour) 13°F to go. Would love to be about 85 next hour

BDL 75°F!!!!! 15°F more to go!!!! LEt'S DO ITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

with Bruins playing...nope

Just noticed NWS has sunny skies tomorrow for BDL...looks like we could get mucked up with MCS cloud debris

Finally...we've been waiting all summer for this but the potential exists on Thursday for a widespread...perhaps severe weather outbreak with widespread damaging winds and perhaps some tornadoes all possible. This is a rather delicate setup, however, all the ingredients are there. as always with this type of potential there are numerous caveats and the extent of the potential probably won't be known until early Thursday morning. 1) Morning MCS - there likely will be an ongoing MCS to begin the day (riding along an instability gradient). This will certainly be one feature which complicates the forecast as we would ave to deal with cloud debris and likely subsidence behind the departing MCS. Subsidence can be good as it can help clear junk out faster, however, if it is too strong it can inhibit development later on. 2) Lack of EML/steep lapse rates. lapse rates aren't horrific, but these setups tend to have their severe weather potential (magnitude) vastly increased when there is an EML involved. With that said, combination of temperatures well into the 80's...perhaps near 90 in spots and dewpoints perhaps into the 70's with high mixing ratios should contribute to near moderate instability (again...cloud debris will be a player here too). 3) Rather strong shortwave approaching will be accompanied by anomalously strong mid-level flow with a west-to-northwest MLJ exceeding 50-60 knots with a low-level jet exceeding 30-35 knots. One caveat here is the BEST dynamics may push off the coast before we can crank again in the afternoon. This should be extremely fun to track the next few days with plenty to work out. It is extremely important to keep expectations in check b/c this is by far a lock and lots have to come together...but all the ingredients are there. Saturday has potential to be quite active as well.

nasty storm just north of Danbury

I would be working from home today too

My concern would be subsidence behind morning MCs

There’s afternoon potential too

I’m smelling the D!!!! It’s a D setup!! I want the D!!!!!

Karma is a *itch hahaha

Should see some pretty nasty t'storms today across eastern CT through southeastern MA. Big lightning producers too

probably happens a couple times each summer. I spend weekends with my girlfriend so I try not to be buried into my phone too much. Anyways...did get one started this morning but as usual everyone is going to think tomorrow is massive widespread potential and then cry bust b/c they didn't get anything...even though this setup is not widespread convection and most probably see nothing. BUT...for those that do...the storms will pack a punch

AHHHHH they dropped to 88

Bic Mac's 62 HR barely made it over the wall but a HR is a HR

I actually am not a huge fan of the mlvl lapse rate output from COD. It always tends to want to bring in steep lapse rates. But...there were times throughout the summer where the look seemed to favor it, but there was one or two key pieces missing. not sure what exactly but you need the airmass to sort of remain homogeneous moving through the upper-Midwest and OV and that hasn't happened. Probably mT air from the Gulf being entrained into the mid-levels.

At this the pattern being projected does favor the potential for some steeper lapse rates to eject our way...very fickle though. You would also think it could favor MCS activity...we are at the climo time of year where that potential (I would wager) is highest. We just have to lock in high theta-e air in the llvls while strong jet energy traverses above...and the way to do that...be atop the crest of the ridge...which looks like we will be.

And BDL up to 89!!! 90 day #36 about to happen. Should tie record Sunday and break Monday and add on Tuesday

Only took until September but yellows and reds a comin'!!!!!!!!!!!! It's like an English Premiere League soccer football (don't want to offend the English) match

maybe we'll see a wave train of tropical activity into the Gulf of Mexico and latent heat pump a ridge across the east through November

yehhhhhhhh

Next week is getting mildly interesting in terms of severe potential. GFS keeps wanting to shoot an EML plume our way atop the ridge.

ME averages about 2 tornadoes per year but I wouldn't be shocked if it's probably much closer to 3. With dual pol now perhaps they can start being detected more but they get some really nasty supercells mid-to-late summer every year it seems.

wouldn't surprise me lol.