weatherwiz

Bingo...this is pretty much the key between anomalous (that trough digging in is already going to be pretty anomalous...in terms of strength) and super-anomalous. The NAM goes wild with some convective blob across GA lol.

Very real. I love trying to sniff these out several days out.

SST's are going to be > sfc temps Also SST's are what in Long Island...lower 60's? That's not exactly "warm". We're dealing with a stable airmass here...if we got into the warm sector it would be a different story. If you want wind just wait to Thursday...we'll get our wind then

Quick go through of some point-and-click soundings across the interior have an inversion...doesn't look overly strong, but as we've seen in the past even a very weak inversion will limit winds. GFS bufkit is actually sustained like pretty much tropical storm force across at CHH. We'll have to see much much rain does fall (thankfully this is a quick mover) but there could be tree damage/power outages Thursday...still looks like some decent winds on the backside.

The trof also has rotation potential

I think there will be a real good slug of precip but not sure how widespread it will be. I do think this thing could lose its juice quick and things shut down...you can kinda see all models show that. This is kinda hard to totally decipher though I think. I’m still highly skeptical of the whole phasing thing and exactly what happens when that phasing takes place. I know we’re inside a favorable window and the support seems to be there, but phasing is a very fickle thing. I forgot who it was who mentioned this, but they mentioned about not having some sort of low in the southeast already. The ideas of these s/w is stemming on the idea of convection forming in the southeast tomorrow...and the NAM goes s/w happy and then goes bonkers with one of the pieces

I think it’s b/c in how the storm strengthens. It strengthens rapidly as its passing to the east of SNE. Plus I also think this is moving very progressive and that’s going to cut down totals

I even think the H5 height anomaly charts in this case are a bit overblown. The trough is certainly potent and of course will be associated with extremely below-average heights, but they’re being enhanced by this “phasing” of this s/w energy was seems convectively-feedback induced. So of course models are going wild with SLP deepening.

whoops...thought I had the GFS up...it's the NAM which does so. GFS isn't as strong...gusts 35-40 mph.

GFS cranks the CAA winds Thursday. Looks like gusts 40-50 mph region-wide. Sustained 15-20 too

euro dumps like 3-5'' across western/central MA down into western/central CT

One of the more laughable wind maps I've ever seen...from the euro no doubt. The amount of convective feedback here is ridiculous. Hopefully not a sign of things to come for winter otherwise every single event we'll be seeing 20-30'' snow maps getting tossed around like Daniel Jones.

lol like 40-60 mph gusts inland and 70-80 mph gusts across the Cape

This is pretty far out there, however, both the GFS and Euro have advertised a fairly significant trough amplifying across the central United States moving into next week and then lifting to our northwest...yielding a significant rise in heights across the east and establishing a southerly flow, advecting an unseasonably warm/moist flow. This will help result in some pretty decent low-level theta-e and yield at least some degree of buoyancy. Aloft, we'll see rather impressive dynamics in response to the amplified trough and we may even have some steep lapse rates due to strong CAA in the mid-levels and likely strong cold pool associated with the main energy. We would be looking at the potential for a low-topped squall line (which may or may not be accompanied by lightning...too early for those details). Now that we're into the fall these type of setups are not uncommon across these parts. Something to watch!

I'm not so sure this thing will slow down enough to make that happen. The front doesn't seem to be totally parallel to the upper-flow and there really is no (strong enough) high to the east to slow the eastward progression. Everything seems to be pointing towards a rather progressive solution here...so despite good rain potential that's why I don't think we'll have to worry too much about flooding. Another wild card too is how does the rain/convection evolve across the southeast tomorrow. The atmosphere will be pretty juiced (pretty high PWATs) and you have the stationary front nearby so I'm sure there will be a decent slug of rain and scattered t'storms in the southeast. Just seems to me though that (at least the NAM anyways) is being a bit too sensitive with the s/w's which traverse across the southeast tomorrow.

The GFS may have a severe threat next week!!!!!! Stay tuned

Looks like all the models are hinting at this (though NAM is most aggressive) but the NAM goes wild with convection across the southeast late tomorrow afternoon/evening and looks like it develops some sort of sfc low which then propagates northeast and then just goes wild as it interacts with the digging trough.

Ahhh NAM you're so cute Goes completely bonkers with a piece of s/w energy rotating around the main s/w. Social media must be hving a field day right now with this.

If we indeed see a low-topped line develop in PA/NY (which I think we will) and that can move through that is probably our best bet for some strong winds. I don't think, however, such a line will make it into our area prior to falling apart. There is some instability present but this will be dynamically driven and once the occlusion happens the dynamics sort of meh out pretty quickly.

I bet Thursday has stronger wind gusts with the CAA. Wednesday/Wednesday night doesn't seem like a crazy wind producer...maybe 25-35 mph wind gusts...likely enhanced by the equator-ward traveling geese farting as they embark on their next leg to the south. The LLJ doesn't look like anything special and I'm not sure how well mixing will truly be...we don't really get into the "warm sector"...we do get scrapped by theta-e values 310-320K...higher values remain off to the south. The strongest winds Wednesday probably happen outside of precipitation too...don't think we're going to see any convective elements to enhance drawing winds down to the surface so with any precip I think it stabilizes the column very quickly.

This doesn't seem like that big of a deal. Seems like there may be some sort of convective feedback going on as well within the models. This system though looks quite progressive and looks like it begins to occlude either over us or just west and the entire dynamics just sort of start crapping out. Probably be a decent slug of precip which moves through, but it does so quickly enough to probably keep flooding to poor-drainage areas. Winds probably be stronger on the backside Thursday

Could be a pretty decent forced line of low topped convection that rolls through PA/NY, however, that probably weakens significantly prior to moving into our area..kinda a shame b/c that could produce a decent little swath of some wind damage. At least we'll get some heavy rain and a little wind

IMO, social media is a huge blame. These charts of snow maps showing 30'' of snow at 220-hr out get tossed around social media, they're re-tweeted or shared on facebook thousands and thousands of times, the public catches wind and all hell breaks lose. In storms like this then you get QPF maps tossed about or whatever. But I agree...so much is just rip and read...and for what reasons IDK. One of my professors from school was a meteorologist for News 12 in NY for like 20+ years and when he retired a few years ago he was talking about how on TV (it would be interesting to hear Ryan's perspective on this too) now everything is about fancy graphics, making things look pretty, and doing a whole bunch of social media...with all this extra stuff you have to do now there isn't a whole heck of a lot of time to really do in-depth forecasting and model analysis. I'm not sure how it is across other sectors but social media is a giant, giant problem. But the rip and reading stuff drives me nuts. Time for a rant myself

When I walked outside this morning I look up and was shocked to see stars.

This...QPF charts are ripped and read way too much and I think they are misinterpreted. I always thought this was never a setup which was going to produce region-wide inches of rain. Any areas of torrential rain was going to be more localized and tied into bands of stronger lift which would move onshore and came with higher RH through those lift zones. How I view QPF maps is this... When looking at the QPF output, I ask myself what kind of setup we're dealing with and does the setup favor the potential for the QPF values being shown (over a widespread area). Depending on the set-up if the QPF maps are showing like a widespread 3-5'' of rain but it doesn't look like a set-up that will produce that, I will figure 3-5'' is like a ceiling which may fall locally. I was scrolling through social media last night and saw dozens of posts about various fb groups and twitter saying model bust or storm bust...I heavily disagree...chalk it into user bust lol