weatherwiz

ha...meant to delete maybe

Seems to coincide too with the track of the meso-low...seems like there is a window where you have everything pretty much maximized and overlapping.

well let's set some expectations here... 1) This likely isn't a widespread severe weather event. 2) Torrential downpours and flash flooding is probably maybe the greatest threat today 3) With what looks to be decent sfc heating later on that should yield steep llvl lapse rates. This combined with a strengthening llvl jet and PWATS around 1.8'' will result in damaging wind potential with the strongest storms...not widespread damaging winds, but some localized pockets of damaging winds. 4) There is enough of a combination of wind shear (speed/directional) and CAPE to warrant the possibility for a tornado. What I would expect... Numerous to widespread convection...of course some are going to miss out or get very little...that is the nature of this activity...some get nothing from round 1 and maybe get round 2...some get round 1 and get nothing round 2...some just flat out will miss out.

Going to be quite interesting today. Looks like we'll get some decent sfc heating which should really enhance the potential for round 1. Round 2 potential is also quite intriguing b/c despite the loss of sfc heating we'll see steepening mlvl lapse rates and forcing.

I'm looking forward to reading your information. The way you communicate your thoughts and the knowledge you present is highly inspiring. Your way with words makes the reads very easy and enjoyable. It would be great to have a snowy December for a change...seems like its been a while.

I think the timing is more very late afternoon/evening and even through the overnight so I don't think surface heating is a major deal here. Our instability is going to derive from a very moist llvl airmass and high theta-e air. Also, as the evening progresses we get some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates which will help to maintain instability despite loss of diurnal heating.

12z runs look quite impressive. Maybe a bit more room for a bit of a bigger event

Time to rip another Labor Day '98 through

COC and damage don't go together

Time to pin tomorrow's thread. Gotta stay ahead of the damage

made a thread for tomorrow.

The NAM (and even euro) has been rather aggressive with the potential for strong-to-severe t'storms Wednesday. This doesn't appear to be a widespread severe weather setup, however, there could be some locally significant severe weather with damaging winds with the potential for a tornado. The NAM has been extremely aggressive with a backed llvl flow with ample wind shear. While mlvl lapse rates are poor, dewpoints perhaps tickling the mid 70's will result in low LCL's and ample 0-3km CAPE (perhaps in excess of 150 J/KG). The warm front looks pretty impressive as well; characterized by a strong theta-e gradient (enhanced by daytime heating...despite extensive cloud cover) and rather high PWAT values. Storm motion also looks to be parallel (or close to it) to the warm front which will result in locally enhanced SRH values. Any updraft which can become mature enough will have numerous ingredients to become severe posing a risk for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. Best potential looks to be south of the MA Pike.

It doesn't seem like ENSO is going to be much of a contributor in the shaping of the pattern this winter. I would think we are closer to warm-neutral. Although I'm interested to see how that tongue of colder waters pushing east off of South America progresses moving forward. There also looks to be a pretty impressive easterly trade wind burst in the coming days originating around the dateline. This is something which could obviously change extremely quickly as we move towards the cooler season, but SSTA's across the NPAC and around Greenland are very, very warm. If that were to persist deep into the fall that could play a major factor in how the pattern evolves moving through the fall. But the theme through this summer (with regards to the configuration across east Russia into the PAC) has been for rather anomalous ridging at times into Alaska...if that holds through the fall that could yield some decent potential early on in the winter for us.

Looks like the equation used in Kevin's dewpoint calibration for his Davis

Storms like that are the best. Several years back I was in a car and there were CG’s all around us. It was wild

Honestly...that is a pretty good reason really. Since the AMO flip in the mid-90's the theme has been AN...why go against that? I know people like to rub on Kevin b/c he calls for AN when we flip to the warm season and then BN when we flip to cold...but in reality since 95...probably every single JJA has ended up AN. I also think the past 10-years or so we've feared several DJF's that may have ended up BN...I recall seeing some graphics that over the past decade during the NH winter there is a sliver of NB right over New England.

During our upcoming below-average pattern, we're going to see some pretty strong ridging develop across the western U.S. which is going to be rather persistent and this is going to yield some decent warmth at 850mb. There seems to be strong consensus (with teleconnection support) that we will see ridging build across much of the CONUS moving towards the end of the month into September. Perhaps not Sonoran heat release type stuff, but much of that warmer air would propagate and advect into our area and the flow would keep this constant. Not only should it be quite warm but I think we'll also be dealing with high humidity too.

I think this is the type of approach that many like to take, however, I'm beginning to think this type of approach doesn't have as much merit as we would think. There are too many inter/intra-seasonal variables and influences which happen or can happen which are probably not correlated very well with the transition from the northern hemisphere summer to the northern hemisphere winter. I think one such example/phenomena is poleward propagating planetary waves...something like this can really escalate changes within the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere...heck it can yield changes which were not really foreseen.

Sept will be a top 3 warmest Sept for several New England sites

it was chilly this morning.

I agree that it looks marginal...may be enough elevated CAPE though that you could get a decent storm. But yeah...south of the Pike looks solid. Also looks to me like storm motion may be right along the boundary which would prmote 1) training cells perhaps 2) enhanced SRH

I could see dews in the 73-77F range down this way Wednesday.

euro looks a bit beefy Wednesday too