weatherwiz

we all have our demons

That's true. I'm only busting anyways haha since I like Taylor Swift. I'm not all that crazy about her newer music though. Outside of Delicate some of her newer stuff is ehhh

People are just jealous of Taylor Swift but she'll go down as one of the greatest ever.

I can assure she probably accomplished more in the last 12 years than your friend would accomplish living a life 5 times over.

I'm trying to learn python and doing some course on codecademy and one of the examples is doing stuff with celebrities, their age, and twitter handle and one of the celebrities is Taylor Swift

ehh I don't think it is as bad as what is being advertised...assuming you're referencing the UD Helicity swaths? In this case, I think the UP helicity swaths (which we see 2-5km on the models) are heavily favored towards the higher portion of the llvls and lower portion of the mlvls. With that in mind the hodographs are largest when viewing the 0-3km layer as opposed to 0-1km layer given the shear in this level is pretty weak...IDK strong enough to yield TOR potential. Regardless, LCL's are very high and in fact keep rising. Another thing (at least for most of CT) is we may not generate much in the way of sfc instability...it's all elevated. Of course we can get elevated supercells but that would probably yield a risk for some hail and strong wind gusts. I'm not very impressed with the svr potential in CT outside of the shoreline.

I don't think it really matters for us really. The better likelihood is down in NJ through NYC onto LI...perhaps coastal CT has an opportunity as they could be on the northern fringes if such a line as advertised materializes. They're actually beginning to recover some with the mlvl lapse rates and there is richer llvl moisture down that way with much stronger sfc heating. Could be a narrow swath of wind damage down that way.

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I think the only potential is right along the CT coast and it would be in the form of strong wind gusts if such a line develops like some of the CAMS indicate...however, it may be overdone. Take the NAM NEST...point-and-click soundings have dewpoints >75 along the CT shore this evening. Doesn't really seem like that is plausible unless we get insane dewpoint pooling.

Who is high on today's severe threat?

Who needs to go to Area 51...come to CT.

I'm actually thinking sort of opposite here. I'm not sure there is much room to drive the warm front any further north than it's current position, although maybe there could be a diurnally driven northward boost. I was looking/hoping for maybe some theta-e ridging or an increase in theta-e advection but this looks minimal thus far. Where the waves seem to develop also lead me to think a northward push will be difficult. 0-1km winds too are quite weak...which shouldn't completely impact frontal progression but I think the ideas of a weak tornado today are down the tube...especially looking at LCL's...they are quite high...even south of the warm front. I haven't looked into this detail outside of soundings but I'm guessing there is a layer of dry air that is trapped somewhere in the llvls (how deep...don't know without looking further) and while sure this could poke some weenie sun rays through but it's hurting moisture/instability/LCL heights.

Flash flooding is certainly going to be a concern later on given PWATS. Outside of a few localized svr reports I think it's going to be tough to do severe today. Poor mid-level lapse rates and meh instability...weak cap yielding a ton of stuff forming. We'll see a blossoming rain shield with heavy rain/flash flooding with best svr with initial cells which develop or cells on the leading edge.

Tomorrow is going to knock us back some

Unfortunately I think the best threat is across SE NY/NJ and Long Island...perhaps right along the CT shore. Unless we can sneak the warm front north a bit

They are getting destroyed just south of GB

Wow...I wonder when they were. I wonder if it was used a few years back with the mid-Atlantic derecho

I imagine it could also be a bit difficult to decipher the difference between a TOR and straight line wind given the magnitude of the winds here. Thankfully this is all linear...had there been more discrete we cod have seen several strong TOR’s

The satellite is a thing a beaut.

Have you ever seen wind speeds of that magnitude in a SVR before? I can’t recall anything above maybe 90...and even that doesn’t ring a bell.

This is quite impressive.

I love this story

You could probably create sparks just rolling around in bed