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About HurricaneJosh

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    Hardcore hurricane chaser. Southern Californian. Hurricane Man.
  • Birthday 01/21/1970

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    Southern California USA
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    A.k.a. iCyclone. Obsessed with severe, deep-tropical cyclones. Nothing else matters.

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  1. Yep. This is unlike Hurricane IRMA, for which peak intensity was bumped down slightly (to 155 knots) in postanalysis. I notice they did bump down the Grand Bahama landfall to 155 knots, so only the Abaco Islands got it at the peak intensity of 160 knots. As with Hurricane MICHAEL, the DORIAN report notes further research on SFMR data could cause future adjustment to peak intensity—but for now, DORIAN's record stands: it's tied with the Labor Day Storm of 1935 as the strongest landfalling hurricane in North America.
  2. Agreed. I am 99% sure it will be one of those two values. I can't see it being higher or lower.
  3. It's hard to say. If I had to guess, I'd say there's a better chance of them bumping it down 5 knots, like they did with IRMA, because they feel the SFMR data are too "hot." Of course I'm very curious. We'll know soon.
  4. For those of you who are into Hurricane DORIAN... Last week, I presented my firsthand, Ground Zero DORIAN experience to a packed ballroom at the Grand America Hotel in Salt Lake City, Utah. The crowd seemed riveted as I took them through the inner core of the strongest hurricane landfall* in the history of North America. The huge-ass screens and top-of-the-line sound system definitely helped me tell the story and bring the audience into the moment. Couldn't get your butt to Utah last week? Here are other venues where you can catch this experience over the coming months (along with an admittedly theatrical promotional poster-- have fun, haters ). NWA Severe Storms & Doppler Radar Conference: National Tropical Weather Conference: National Hurricane Conference: SeCAPS – University of South Alabama: Details are coming soon Re: the Texas show, which will be in the Corpus Christi area 06-07 May. ____ * The current intensity estimate (160 knots) ties DORIAN with the 1935 Labor Day Storm as the strongest landfalling hurricane on record in North America. If it's bumped down to 155 knots in postanalysis, it'll be tied with IRMA for No. 2.
  5. Thanks so much, shaggy. I'm glad you enjoyed it, and I hope you're doing well. Nice to reconnect with you like this.
  6. I most certainly did-- got right smack in the eye. Here's the action. It's one of my better nighttime videos. The hotel was on a generator, so there was some light to work with.
  7. Hey, thanks, Mike! I'm flattered that you have such a firm belief in my ability to pull that off again-- or top it. If I go to my grave with DORIAN being my biggest score, I'll feel like I did what I was put on this earth to do. But, hey, it's always worth striving for that next level. Anyhoo, thanks for watching the video. Hope you're well, man.
  8. Hey, thanks man-- appreciate it. The death toll does sound way too low to me based on what I experienced (whole neighborhoods flattened and the stench of death in the air) and heard from folks I was talking to while there (many reports of bodies everywhere). I won't hazard a guess-- this just isn't my area of expertise-- but I would've guessed a death toll well into the hundreds or even four figures. The destruction is at the level of Super Typhoon HAIYAN. Whereas HAIYAN directly struck a large city (Tacloban City - pop. ~220K), DORIAN struck a small town (Marsh Harbour - pop. ~6K), so I highly doubt we'll see a HAIYAN-like death toll (6K - 10K) in DORIAN-- but I know in my heart it is way beyond that 53 figure.
  9. Thanks, Tony. I appreciate it. Have a good night.
  10. Thanks for your interest in my work, Tony. I appreciate it.
  11. Sorry this conversation is irritating you. I don't see how it was a jab to observe you're into a certain cyclone. I'm really, really into DORIAN-- like, I'm obsessed with it and will be for years to come. And if someone pointed that out, I'd say, "F*ck yeah, I am." Anyhoo, at some point they'll reassess MICHAEL. I was never personally totally sold on the Cat-5 thing, but as always, I accept the NHC verdict as "the word," even on the rare occasions when I personally feel somewhat differently (examples: ODILE 2014 and CAMILLE 1969). And, anyhoo, most of the time I'm totally with them, even with big postanalysis changes (examples: KATRINA 2005, PATRICIA 2015).
  12. I wasn't talking specifically about MICHAEL (your favorite cyclone ever ), but this bit from the MICHAEL TCR explicitly ties a future intensity reassessment to the SFMR research findings: "It should be noted that future revisions to the Florida landfall intensity are possible, as additional re-assessment is expected once the research on the reliability of the SFMR at these high wind speeds is complete."
  13. Wow, that is really interesting to hear the perspective of non-weather-nerds. But, yeah, I personally found the winds scary-- they were way beyond anything I've seen before. Just nuts.
  14. Wow, that is a huge compliment-- when non-weather-nerds dig my footage. So, thank you for very much for letting me know! And please tell your girlfriend Hurricane Man is glad she was so riveted! It's a great question but a tough one, because the terrains and building standards in both places are so different. I feel like I can't answer. Both were truly great cyclones, and both were way beyond anything else I've observed. Very true. Live by SFMR, die by SFMR. If new research shows that the SFMR data are generally too "hot," a few big-name hurricanes are gonna get a rude awakening (i.e., downgrades) in reanalysis.