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About winterwx21

  • Birthday 10/12/1977

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    Piscataway, NJ.
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  1. Snow/Slop Storm 2/17-18 Obs

    I have 4 as well, but the snow is starting to lighten up now and the back edge isn't far away. So I don't see how we can get to 6. Looks as if it will end up between 4.5 and 5. Beautiful postcard scene out there. As others have mentioned, the Directv is out which is extremely rare during snowstorms. It usually only goes out during very heavy rain, but the dish is plastered with the wet snow. Next unread topic Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley First Half 2018
  2. Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    RGEM at hour 48 looked much better though and had some 4 to 5 inch amounts where the GGEM has only 2. Probably getting towards the range to pay more attention to RGEM rather than GGEM.
  3. Feb. 17th-18th, 2018 Bowling Snow

    Even most of Long Island gets a 3 to 6 inch snowfall on the 12z NAM. Much colder run.
  4. February 2018 Model thread

    GGEM was the first to pick up on this potential weekend snow event, and it was also the first model to pick up on a few of the snow events we had early in the winter. I don't know about its overall verification scores this season, but it has been doing very well with individual storms. It's definitely a much better model than GFS these days.
  5. February 2018 Model thread

    Maybe the GGEM wasn't crazy afterall. Perhaps it'll be another win for that model this winter as it was the first to show the potential weekend snowstorm.
  6. I see the GGEM tonight is still showing a snow event for saturday. I assume the model is off its rocker right now since nothing else is showing this, but you never know for sure. Obviously it would require tremendous timing since it's only a very brief cold shot at the end of the week.
  7. People west of NYC can complain because they got much less snow from the blizzard. Many places in NJ got only a few inches from the blizzard. This will end up being a bad winter for those places if we don't get a significant late season snowstorm. Early March is still prime snow season, so hopefully we can pull off a snowstorm then if we don't get one in late February. We need one to avoid having a well below average snowfall season. I know the coast is a different story since they cashed in with the blizzard.
  8. Feb 7th snow threat

    GGEM gets 2 inches of snow down to NYC. Not bad. Hopefully RGEM/GGEM are right about the front end dump. If NAM is right NYC will see almost nothing.
  9. February 2018 Model thread

    And 18z NAM is a nice little hit of 2 to 3 inches of snow for the NYC area before it changes to rain. Let's see if this keeps trending colder.
  10. February 2018 Model thread

    12z NAM does give NYC and nearbye suburbs a little front end dump of 1 to 2 inches of snow wednesday before the change to rain. Hopefully this will continue to trend colder and we see a little accumulating snow, because it could be the last chance for awhile with the pattern looking ugly.
  11. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    That's amazing because most people were hyping mid February as a very cold and snowy period. Now suddenly it's looking like a torch. This is just another example of how difficult long range forecasting is. Hopefully it'll switch back. Who the heck knows what mid-late February will be like.
  12. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    No doubt March is much less snowy than February. But it's about as snowy as December is. There are 4 months out of the year in which NYC area averages a significant amount of snow. December, January, February and March. Snow season is December through March, although flakes fly every once in awhile in November and April.
  13. Winter 2017-18 banter thread

    March averages about the same amount of snow as December does, although the chances decline during the 2nd half of March. To me prime snow season doesn't end until the 3rd week of March.
  14. 2/1-2/18 Wave

    On the last 2 runs the HRRR is now showing most of the area getting around 1 inch of snow. That along with what the NAM is showing at least gives some hope of a decent burst of snow at the end that can coat the ground.
  15. Amazes me that you're near 30" for the season out there on eastern LI, while I'm at 15" here just a few miles west of NYC. LI used to be the worst place in the tri-state for snow due to so much mixing, but in recent winters it has been the best place for snow. Something has changed tremendously and it's very odd.