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About winterwx21

  • Birthday 10/12/1977

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    Piscataway, NJ.
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  1. It still gets a few inches all the way back to western NJ. The really big storm idea seems to be falling apart, but hopefully we can at least pull off something like RGEM is showing. Several inches would at least be a decent snow event.
  2. Yeah, this run showing a lot less snow for NYC than last night's run. Still a decent storm on this run, but we can't like the trends.
  3. About a 6 inch storm for the NYC area on the RGEM, far less than NAM. Still a little early to take models like RGEM and NAM very seriously though.
  4. I see 12z GGEM is giving areas just slightly to the northwest of NYC a significant snowstorm late tuesday, and changes the city over to snow for a few hours at the end with a couple inches. I assume GGEM is off on this though. This scenario doesn't seem very realistic for the reasons you stated.
  5. It did finally bail, although even last night's 0z Nam did give central NJ close to 2 inches of snow. RGEM actually correctly picked up that areas to the north would get slightly more than areas to the south due to the colder temps. RGEM outperformed NAM big-time with this event.
  6. Thanks for posting this .... great info. I've noticed that RGEM has been excellent the last several years. It's usually the model I trust the most with snow amounts.
  7. A little frustrating, but certainly not a shock. We've seen this many times before where rain changing to snow behind a cold front doesn't work out. Last night's RGEM gave our area only a quarter to half inch of snow, so the writing was on the wall. GFS not surprisingly did a horrendous job with the snow amounts, and NAM did a bad job too.
  8. Just a light coating on colder surfaces here. Good job by RGEM yesterday saying this would be only a coating to an inch for most. I often talk about what a good model RGEM is, and it showed it again. Terrible job by GFS, NAM and HRRR with the higher amounts they showed.
  9. GFS looks way overdone. Euro is saying this is a 1 inch snowfall. RGEM is just a coating to 1 inch, and NAM really cut back. A lot of evidence tonight that this event is going to be smaller than we had hoped.
  10. I've found RGEM to be a very good model, but we'll see. I'm certainly rooting to see more snow tomorrow. Would love to see 3 inches with it accumulating on pavement well, but right now I'm thinking more like 1 inch mostly on colder surfaces. Hopefully I'm wrong.
  11. 0z RGEM looks terrible. This is rain changing to snow too, so we're dealing with a warm wet ground at the start. Light snow like RGEM is showing isn't gonna cut it. This is really starting to look like a non event. I was hoping some of those earlier NAM and HRRR runs were a good sign, but it appears not. This is looking like maybe an inch on colder surfaces.
  12. HRRR looks similar to NAM. I know HRRR is more useful very close to events rather than longer range, but the 18z run gives most of the area a solid 3 inches. Hopefully it's onto something here.
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