winterwx21

Too early to tell. 12z run of GGEM that just came out has it going right over us thursday late afternoon and early evening. Good batch of very heavy rain for us on the GGEM.

It'll be long gone by next weekend. Our rains from Michael would be thursday into thursday night. Friday will be fine.

To me it still looks like 5 days (friday through tuesday) of nice cool crisp refreshing air. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s with 40s at night. But I do agree on a big warmup after that. I think we go back to a very warm pattern after the cooldown.

Our big rain event looks to be thursday though, so only 4 days away. Should be out of here for friday.

Not sure what forecast you're talking about. Most forecasts I've seen in the last few days have been calling for a scattered shower/storm late thursday as the front comes in. Lee Goldberg was talking about it even back on monday. Not a surprise, with the front that's gonna cool it down bumping into this warmth/humidity.

At least having way above normal temps in October is much better than having above normal temps during the summer. High temps in the low 80s with moderate humidity (dewpoints in the 60s) is pretty comfortable and nice weather for outdoor activities. Not like during the summer when it was miserable with dewpoints in the 70s to go along with 90 degree temps. I'm fine with a warm pattern for October-November as long as it flips in time for winter.

Looking like a great first week of October for people that want late season warmth. High temps upper 70s to near 80 all week long.

Hoping for a strong storm tonight. Next week looks warm. No sign of that first really chilly fall airmass. Long range looks warm for us.

We could hit 80 on wednesday. There are signs of a strong cold front during the first week of October, but it could just be a brief cool shot. I think most forecasts are for a warmer than normal pattern overall for this Fall. Not sure where you're hearing a cooler than normal October. It's pretty rare for us to get a cooler than normal month these days.

It wasn't 8 days away. He was talking about the front that came through last night. Or at least that's what I thought he was talking about. Doubt he would be talking about severe potential that was more than a week away. And next friday looks dry so I doubt he meant then. I think he meant friday's night's (last night) front. Too late at night for us to get severe.

The timing of the front is late friday night, so I would think that would limit the severe potential.

Actually the models are showing another warmup for us around then. Looks as if we could get back to 80 by next thursday-friday (27th-28th).

Central Middlesex County NJ getting hammered. Looks as if the very heavy stuff will continue to miss just to the south this afternoon. A lot of rain for NYC south and east, but probably not much for northern Jersey.

Yeah we're gonna have a 4 day heat wave (MON through THUR) and then much cooler and wet for Friday and next weekend. The question is does the heat come back for the following week?

Yeah so much for the extended hot stretch. Now down to just 3 days as you said. Front comes in wednesday night.