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About winterwx21

  • Birthday 10/12/1977

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    Piscataway, NJ.
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  1. The models are showing the very cold pattern coming in March 3rd. There might be a brief warmup for the 1st/2nd before the cold really comes in. Anyway I agree the pattern doesn't look great for snow depite the cold, but if you get an entire week of well below average temps in early March you have a shot. It's certainly possible to get some moisture in here during a cold week, even if it isn't a big storm. Hopefully the models pick up on something when it gets closer.
  2. winterwx21

    OBS thread Feb 20-21, 2019

    2" so far here. I see on radar echoes are starting to increase some in eastern PA. We might get one more pickup in the snow to get us close to the 3" mark before it changes over. Let's hope.
  3. winterwx21

    February 20 - 21 Winter Storm Threat

    That's not correct. HRRR was the model that busted terribly with the last storm. Remember everyone here kept commenting that HRRR was the coldest and showed NYC getting 2 inches of snow. NAM was warmest and said no snow for NYC and only for well north of NYC. Most of the area ended up getting no snow accumulation. NAM did best with the last storm and HRRR was the worst.
  4. winterwx21

    OBS only thread Feb 17-18, 2019

    It's light rain here. Looks as if HRRR is going to bust with the colder solution. Probably have to go north of NYC to see accumulating snow like NAM and RGEM have been showing.
  5. It's long range for NAM, but NAM does give Central NJ several inches of snow wednesday. Better than what other models show. We need the confluence to trend a little weaker so the snow doesn't fall apart as it comes in. GFS, GGEM and EURO have been showing it weakening to light snow due to the confluence and give us only around 1 inch. Hopefully the better looking 12z NAM will be the start of a better trend for wednesday. For tonight HRRR is colder and gets 1 to 2 inches of snow down to NYC. NAM however says you have to go north of NYC to see accumulating snow. Continues to be a tough call.
  6. It looks as if the snow has trouble coming in due to dry air. Looks like a good snow shield approaching but then it weakens to light snow as it bumps up against the high pressure and dry air. 0z GFS and GGEM continue to give our area around 1 inch of snow wednesday afternoon before it mixes at night.
  7. Most of the 12z model runs were disappointing, showing only around 1 inch of snow wednesday. The 0z runs are just starting to come out, so we'll see shortly if they beef up wednesday's storm and make it a little colder.
  8. What about other winters though? I've noticed for years you downplay every snow threat. It has worked well for you this winter, but other recent winters when we had way above normal snowfall you were wrong most of the time. The way you post makes it seem as if you hate snow, yet your name is snowman. You have every right to like whatever type of weather you like, but I'm just curious ...... do you like snow or not? If you don't then maybe you should change your name to summerMan or something like that lol.
  9. winterwx21

    February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

    Yeah not much of a period of freezing rain here with how quickly the temps are rising. I'm up to 32.5
  10. winterwx21

    February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

    Depends on how much we get. If we get a solid 4 inches of snow with some ice on top of that, I don't think the rain would be able to wash it all away unless it gets really warm. This isn't an event where temps are supposed to spike to the 50s after it changes to rain. What's on the ground will probably become very heavy and tough to shovel due to the higher water content.
  11. winterwx21

    February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

    RGEM however shifted north and gets an inch to inch and a half up to our area. Still a very close call for wave 1. Could just be a dusting, but just a small shift north and it could be 2 inches.
  12. You're welcome. One of my favorite things to look at during winter.
  13. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html It's just like watching the futurecast (precip types, timing and movement) that you see on tv weathercasts, only it's the Canadian models instead. For the first 48 hours it shows the RGEM, and then at hour 49 it switches to the GGEM and goes out to day 5. You just have to hit animate. Very good tool.
  14. Yeah the GGEM gives a long period of sleet after the 3 to 4 inches of snow. I just watched the color loop and it gives our area sleet for about 7 hours, before the change to rain.
  15. And people overestimate snow getting washed away too. Yeah an inch or two will get washed away, but it's rare for 5 or 6 inches to get completely washed away unless it's VERY warm during the rain. Usually the snow absorbs a lot of the water and becomes very heavy.