winterwx21

Are we even going to see any rain at all from Jose? I see RGEM gives us pretty much nothing.

RGEM has been giving our area a decent amount of rain from the tropical system, and I see 12z NAM just joined in as well.

Yeah I just noticed that. A little over a half inch of rain already, with more to come. Nice soaking tonight.

The wind gusted to about 40 here. The rain came down in buckets and was blowing sideways. Good amount of lightning as well. It wasn't severe, but a good strong t-storm. I'm pleased.

Great lightning show in the western sky right now.

The strong storm in Hunterdon County is on track to hit here, if it can hold together. The latest HRRR is suggesting it will, quite a difference from what model runs earlier today showed. We'll see.

At least we got the half inch of rain that I was hoping for. Picked up .52" here. The big 1 to 2 inch amounts went just to the south, across central Middlesex county.

21z HRRR went nuts, with a band of 4 to 5 inch amounts just south of the city (Mercer to Monmouth).

Yeah with that first batch near Allentown it looks as if we're just gonna get a light to moderate shower here, while the heavy stuff goes down into Burlington and Ocean counties. I hope we can at least squeeze out a half inch of rain from this event. The soil is pretty dry right now. I'm holding off on watering the vegetable garden, hoping we get a decent amount of rain.

2 runs in a row of the HRRR now have most of the rain missing us to the south. Hopefully it's wrong. I've found the HRRR to be unreliable in the last several months.

2 inches of rain here with training storms. Flooding going on here in Piscataway.

And it's not only GFS. GGEM actually brings a good period of rain into the area saturday afternoon. Even the NAM brings a few showers saturday evening. Enough guidance brings it far enough north that we have to keep an eye on it, even though the meteorology argues that it should stay to the south. Hopefully the Euro is right about it staying south, because a lot of people would be irritated to see rain saturday after all forecasts have been saying saturday is the one sure dry day of the holiday weekend.

I definitely agree that it's a low confidence forecast. That's sort of my point. All forecasts have been acting as if saturday is a slam dunk beautiful day. I think it's questionable just like the rest of the weekend. GGEM has been extremely consistent in bringing the batch of rain acoss PA and then into our area saturday afternoon. It's not out of the question that it could be right. It could go to the south, but I don't want people to be shocked if saturday afternoon plans end up being ruined.

12z GGEM shows rain saturday afternoon. Even GFS now shows some scattered showers for saturday. I mentioned this yesterday. Why are all forecasts saying saturday is the one beautiful day of the holiday weekend with no chance of rain at all? Seems as if they're ignoring guidance that's showing rain for saturday. I wouldn't be surprised if sunday ends up better than saturday. What do you guys think?

I keep hearing that saturday is the one day of the holiday weekend with no chance of rain, but I see NAM brings in rain late in the day saturday. GGEM shows similar. Any chance these 2 models are right and saturday ends up with rain? Lee Goldberg seems confident that saturday will be dry.