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About winterwx21

  • Birthday 10/12/1977

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    Piscataway, NJ.
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  1. 12z GFS shows a 1 to 3 inch snow next friday into saturday. Time to get excited, lol. But at least we have signs of cold air in the long range. Seems as if we have halfway decent odds of seeing some snow in March this year.
  2. GFS is showing a very cold pattern moving in around the 5th, but we know that long range GFS can't be trusted. But at least there is some hope for a decent period in early to mid March.
  3. I see GFS flipped on the cutter for early next week and now shows a snow threat instead, but do any other models show this? I haven't had time to look at much today. I wouldn't get excited if it's only GFS.
  4. I haven't had snowcover since sunday, except for a few patches in shady areas. The 6 inches did not last long.
  5. The CMC is very warm too. If it came a little closer to give us more precip, it would be just rain. The CMC has rain showers well to the northwest of NYC wednesday. We would need a bombing low in perfect position overcome the marginal airmass wednesday. Getting brushed by light-moderate precip would be rain.
  6. As Allsnow said, the upper atmosphere was too cold on the Euro and that's why the Euro Kuchera ratio printed out too much snow. The Euro did indeed overestimate snow ratios. What I was talking about had nothing to do with weenies cherry picking maps. I completely agree that we shouldn't have been going on the Euro Kuchera map since it was obviously overdone, but that doesn't excuse the Euro model for being too cold. The NAM and other models were not as cold and printed out more reasonable amounts on the Kuchera maps. I'm not sure why people like to blame the Kuchera method. It works IF the model is right about upper atmosphere temps and things that determine ratios. The Euro messed up on ratios in this case while most other models didn't. The HRRR Kuchera maps were on the money.
  7. Yeah that's what I thought. I still think it was the Euro model itself being too cold and overestimating snow ratios. If it was just the Kuchera method being so flawed and overestimating, then the other models like HRRR and NAM would have also been showing much higher totals on the Kuchera maps. I completely agree with the idea of not falling for what the Euro Kuchera map was showing, since most of the evidence was pointing to lower ratios. But that doesn't change the fact that the Euro model itself screwed up in being too cold for our area.
  8. I assumed the same thing. It seemed like the Euro was showing colder temps and conditions that were more favorable for higher snow ratios, and that's why the Euro Kuchera maps were printing out higher ratios while the Kuchera maps for other models were not. But knowledgable people here say it has nothing to do with the Euro model itself. I'm still a bit confused.
  9. I never believed those high ratios. It was pretty clear that this would be closer to a 10:1 event. I was just wondering why it was ONLY the Euro Kuchera ratio snow map that was going much higher, and not the other models. The Kuchera ratio maps for the other models were printing out about the same amount of snow as the 10:1 maps. That's why I wondered if it was the Euro itself that was overestimating ratios.
  10. But why then did the other models when factoring in Kuchera ratio not show amounts much higher than 10:1? Like I said the HRRR Kuchera maps and 10:1 maps printed out almost the same amount of snow. It was only the Euro Kuchera ratio maps that were showing much higher than 10:1. That led me to believe that it was the Euro model itself that was overestimating snow ratios. If it was just a flawed Kuchera method then I would think the other models would show inflated totals as well. Maybe I'm completely wrong about this, but it's what I assumed. So if I'm wrong I'd like to know why the Euro Kuchera snow maps were way off the but the Kuchera maps for the other models were not.
  11. Yeah and with the January 7th storm, we at least had 2 frigid days after the storm in which there was no melting at all. This snow is gonna melt very quickly tomorrow.
  12. The Euro also went nuts with the Kuchera ratios. It gave us like 15 or 16 inches here with Kuchera ratios, yet we ended up with 6. I remember looking at the HRRR runs and the Kuchera maps were printing out about the same snow amounts as the 10:1 maps. Same with NAM and RGEM. The Euro really overestimated snow ratios, unlike the other models. I thought the Euro did a terrible job with this storm.
  13. Yeah I'm a bit disappointed too. A half foot certainly is a nice storm, but we were really teased with those 12z runs that showed our area getting close to a foot of snow. But we saw the warning signs last night when 0z NAM and RGEM really cut down our amounts, and most of the HRRR runs did the same. And it made sense since southwest of NYC is often the screwzone in these types of storms. Last night I was hoping we could still pull off 8, but it ended up being closer to 6. Still enough to be an enjoyable storm though.
  14. Yup, I'm the one that reported 6.5" in Piscataway. I also measure by taking a bunch of measurements in my back yard. Since you and Tim both measured 6.5" here in northern Middlesex county, I'd say we all measured very accurately.