winterwx21

December did deliver already with the advertised great pattern. We just got unlucky. North Carolina saw a historic snowstorm. It takes a great pattern/setup for something like that to happen in December. We just got very unlucky that the confluence was too strong to let it come up the coast. Maybe the last week of the month will deliver for us.

He is terrible, but of course there are quite a few terrible weathercasters in this area. The only ones I like are Lee Goldberg, Jeff Smith, Nick Gregory and Craig Allen.

Right now the models are showing that as a warm rainy storm. I don't know what G is seeing to make him think it could be a cold storm, and to put up a mix map this early is absurd. Cold does come in behind that storm. Should get pretty cold late next week. Hopefully that cold will set us up for a storm, before we go back to a warmer pattern again around the 10th.

GFS still has the early part of the first week of December warm, and then brings in the cold on the 5th. It still might get cold during the 1st week of December, but not until later in the week.

Today's 12z run of GFS shows it warm for the first few days of the 1st week of December, and then cools it off wednesday-thursday. No snow chances on this run. But obviously it's way too far out to take seriously.

I wouldn't mind a break in the cold pattern for the week of December 2nd, since that's the big week (6 day firearm season) of the deer hunting season. Not much fun sitting up in a tree in freezing cold weather. Then let it get cold/snowy after that week. But who knows ... long range is very hard to predict. For quite awhile we kept hearing the 1st week of December looked cold and ripe for a snowstorm, and now suddenly we're hearing talk of warmth. Could easily switch back to cold on the models soon. Still too far out.

Looks as if the changeover is happening a little earlier than that. I just changed over to mostly sleet. I have 5 inches and I think that's going to be about it, now that it's sleeting. Still a very nice overperformer.

So that snow map he posted is useless. The Pivotalweather one should be posted.

Very odd because the 12z NAM snow map on Pivotalweather is showing about 1 inch of snow for northern Jersey, where this one is showing 6 to 10. Is it because this one counts sleet as snow?

A lot of models have the rain coming in well before midnight now. Looks to me as if rain starts around 9 to 10pm friday night and tapers off late morning saturday.

Woke up at 3am and took a quick look at the thermometer, and it was 35 degrees. But the tomato plants and other vegetable plants in the garden look fine, so I guess we just barely avoided a frost last night. Let the growing season continue. We'll see if we can just barely avoid it again sunday night.

Too early to tell. 12z run of GGEM that just came out has it going right over us thursday late afternoon and early evening. Good batch of very heavy rain for us on the GGEM.

It'll be long gone by next weekend. Our rains from Michael would be thursday into thursday night. Friday will be fine.

To me it still looks like 5 days (friday through tuesday) of nice cool crisp refreshing air. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s with 40s at night. But I do agree on a big warmup after that. I think we go back to a very warm pattern after the cooldown.

Our big rain event looks to be thursday though, so only 4 days away. Should be out of here for friday.