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Everything posted by winterwx21

  1. HRRR looks similar to NAM. I know HRRR is more useful very close to events rather than longer range, but the 18z run gives most of the area a solid 3 inches. Hopefully it's onto something here.
  2. Yeah CMC gets a little snow to coastal Virginia and that's it. If Euro backs down at 1pm, we'll know we're in trouble with this threat.
  3. Nice snow shower going on here right now, but not accumulating with the temp at 36.
  4. CMC gets snow up to southern NJ friday night. Close. Will be interesting to see what Euro shows in a little while.
  5. Picked up 1 inch of snow here before it changed to rain. At least we got a little front end snow. Looked nice out there before the rain washed it away.
  6. I see 0z Euro is back to giving us a snowstorm for saturday. The heavier snow misses us just to the south on this run, but it's a good look this early. The position of the ridge out west gives us a decent chance with this threat.
  7. It's very frustrating that we're missing an opportunity with the sunday night into monday storm, but consistent cold weather means chances are very high that we'll see more snow in the next couple weeks. It would be pretty difficult to have a cold 2nd half of January and not get any snow out of it. Obviously it can happen, but it would take very bad luck.
  8. I agree with you. Considering the magnitude of the arctic air in place over the weekend, I'd be surprised if there isn't a decent little front end thump for the NYC area. I expect models to adjust a little colder with the storm as we get closer, even with a bad track. But of course it would change to rain and most of the snow would get washed away.
  9. Yeah usually a snowless December during a La Nina means a terrible winter ahead, but it's not a typical La Nina pattern this year. Nice looking pattern ahead.
  10. Not bad that the models have a storm missing us to the south that's 6 days away. North trend happens often. We have a decent chance.
  11. Mount Holly going with a 2 to 4 forecast. Looks reasonable. Snow ratios being a little better than 10:1 helps, so I might lean more towards the 4 than the 2.
  12. I know long range HRRR should be taken with a grain of salt, but for the last event that missed us to the south we never had HRRR on our side. It kept showing the accumulations staying to our south. Hopefully the fact that 12z HRRR is showing significant snow for our area is a good sign.
  13. Both 12z GGEM and 12z Euro would be a nice moderate snow event for our area. With the concern of the progressive pattern, hopefully this won't keep trending south and end up being a miss for us.
  14. RGEM did a good job. It consistently showed the significant snow staying just to our south, but wasn't ridiculously far south early on like the NAM was. I've always found RGEM to be a very good model.
  15. Nice all snow event thursday night into friday morning on the 12z GGEM run that just came out. Let's hope that's correct.
  16. 60 degrees here right now. I just went for a run outside with a t-shirt on, and it's possible I could be shoveling snow tomorrow. A Colorado-like weather swing that's becoming much more common for our area.
  17. I'd gladly take the few inches that Euro is showing for our area, even though it would be a little frustrating that the really big amounts miss us to the south. Hopefully the NAM is incorrect about having the accumulations much more to the south.
  18. If you go with the NAM we get nothing at all. Not even a coating to an inch. But maybe something like what 12z RGEM is showing will happen, with our area on the northern fringe and getting brushed by a coating to an inch. Hard to be optimistic about more than that right now. When you have only 1 major model on your side, you certainly don't want it to be GFS. But stranger things have happened, so we still have a slight chance.
  19. 12z Euro gets a little accumulating snow up to Cape May County NJ. Close to an inch for the southern part of the county. Looks like a longshot for us, but it's close enough that we still have to keep a close eye on it. We have a slight chance.
  20. The period from this saturday to the following saturday is gonna be insane. High temps in the 50s and 60s pretty much every day, except for maybe upper 40s on sunday. A few days (this saturday and next thursday and friday) with temps WELL up into the 60s likely too. One of the warmest 1 week periods in mid December history.
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