winterwx21

Wow. I went on Friday and it wasn't too bad. I usually go on Saturday but moved it up to Friday to avoid the insane crowds. I heard that yesterday it was horrific.

Hard to believe anyone would be calling for 20 to 30 right now.

It's funny how some people say we shouldn't look at models as the event gets very close. Models get more and more accurate the closer you get to the event. They'll be the most accurate right before the event is starting, so of course we should look at them.

It's not only the globals. HRRR last night had my area getting close to 2 feet, but now it's 15.

Slept late today and just getting caught up, but I'm not shocked to see that the models lowered amounts. We knew that while we couldn't discount them, it was possible that the few models that were showing the monster amounts were wrong. We've seen a lot of Euro and RGEM runs showing the much lower amounts. That's why I never went nuts and said 12 to 16 inches for our area. I'm wondering now though if it should be lowered to 10 to 14. Still going to be a great storm. I see HRRR and NAM3km give us close to 15 which would be great. Hopefully everyone knows to never get excited by the RIDICULOUSLY bad regular NAM. That model is a joke.

Wow. With the way you've been commenting on the storm, I never imagined that you were not here. Very sorry that you're going to miss it! Hopefully you're having a great time in New Orleans though.

Of course it's wrong.

NAM3km doesn't have anywhere near the regular NAM amounts.

Obviously the NAM is a ridiculously bad model with the way it overhypes. No one is getting 45 inches, lol. 30 certainly is possible though.

I'm glad to see that it made a pretty good move. The 10 inches that the Euro is showing for our area seems like a realistic worst case scenario.

Hoping to see the Euro shift west an hour from now. I do think the Euro is off, but we can't completely discount it since it's the most accurate global model. I do like a 12 to 16 forecast for my area, despite the Euro. I'd love to get buried under 2 feet, but I'm not buying those huge amounts yet. I want to see what a model like the HRRR shows in the short range before increasing a forecast to those huge amounts.

I just saw the Euro. WOW, only 4 inches for our area. Yet the American models are close to 2 feet. Insane difference. I do think the Euro is way off with this solution, but it isn't a slam dunk yet that we're seeing a monster event.

Yeah the tv mets can't act like we do just because the American models are showing insane amounts. They have to be more conservative 2 days before a storm, unless the models were in agreement on the monster amounts. I would probably go a little higher than 8 to 12 right now, but no way would I do something like forecasting 20 to 30. I would go with something like 10 to 16 right now.

You really have to wonder if the American guidance is overdoing it since nothing else is that extreme. Obviously it's still going to be a tremendous storm with over a foot for most of the area.

I'm glad to see it renamed the Allsnow blizzard of 2026 thread, in honor of Allsnow's triumphant return!

Yeah this has been an enjoyable winter. 30 inches of snow for our area and an unusually long period of snowcover. Now if this storm pans out, it will be our best snowfall winter since 2014-2015 in addition to it being our coldest winter since that year. What a winter we're having.

Yep this is looking really good.

So great to see you back!! We were worried about you. Anyway the RGEM still makes me wonder if we're going to get the truly huge totals, but I would think at least something in between the RGEM and the NAM/GFS is likely. Very excited.

That doesn't mean they'll trend all the way to the extreme GFS solution. I think the most likely scenario is the GFS backs off somewhat as these other models trends towards it to find a middle ground. A middle ground (6 to 12 inches) would still be a very nice solution.

Yeah nowhere near the GFS. We still don't know if it's going to be a moderate snowstorm or a very big one, but I'm glad all the models agree on at least a moderate snowstorm now. Getting brushed by a light event looks very unlikely now.

I'm sure Lee Goldberg will have higher amounts when he comes on later this afternoon.

I'd be thrilled to get 5 inches from this. I'm glad the bad trends of the last couple days stopped and we're headed back in the right direction tonight. A light to moderate event looks likely.

That's true, but getting a few inches would make me happy. Who knows, it could be our last snowfall of the season. I'd like our area to get a few inches above the 30 inch mark so we can say we finished solidly above normal for the season.

At least it's looking much more likely that we'll see a 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 type of event, and we have a slight chance of seeing something much bigger. Very interested to see what the Euro looks like in an hour.

The Euro does give us some snow Sunday but it's during the day with temps slightly above freezing. It would be a colder surfaces deal.