winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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This NAM run actually started it out as a little rain on the leading edge before quickly changing it over to snow.
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Good to see NAM looking like RGEM now. I think 3 to 5 might be pushing it, but 2 to 4 seems like a good possibility to me.
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NAM coming in well north, this is gonna be a nice run.
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But if we end up getting 2 snow events out of it (yesterday and saturday morning), at least we'll be able to say that the mid to late February pattern produced decently. Anyway 12z Euro gets light snow up here. About an inch, with more for southern NJ. Hopefully the RGEM is right and we'll see some north trends with the other models. Would be nice to get 2 or 3 inches.
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Yep too far south so it just brushes us with a coating. Hopefully the American models are too far south right now. RGEM looked great.
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A decent bump north from its 12z run though. It does get an inch up to Cape May County now, and I'm sure it will keep trending north tomorrow.
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I'll be rooting for warmer temps in mid to late March, but over the next month I'll take every inch I can get. It's a real positive that this event will be happening during the overnight hours when temps will be below freezing. Right now it looks like a 1 to 3 inch event to me, but we can hope that it trends to a 2 to 4.
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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
winterwx21 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Always great to read your posts during snowstorms. -
And 12z Euro gives southern NJ a couple inches Saturday morning. Something to watch.
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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
winterwx21 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Exactly what I measured too. Nice storm. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
winterwx21 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
I have a Cardinal couple that has been living here for 6 or 7 years. They roost in the boxwood bush in front of my house every night. I've been seeing this lovely couple so long that it's hard to imagine life without them, lol. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
winterwx21 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Probably will add a quick half inch with this last burst. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
winterwx21 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Heavy snow now with the back edge coming through. -
12z GFS gives us a couple inches Friday night into Saturday morning. Doesn't look like a major storm, but we have a shot at seeing a light event.
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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
winterwx21 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
It's coming down at a pretty good clip here. Should be picking up in your area soon as this final band swings through. A little over 5 inches here. A heavier burst with the back edge should get us to between 5 and half and 6. Yesterday I thought we'd be somewhere between 4 and 7, so pretty much what was expected. Not a blockbuster obviously, but a nice moderate snowstorm seems like a great event after getting very little the last couple years. I'm pleased. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
winterwx21 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Yeah a few days ago I (like most people) thought it was just gonna be a coating to an inch or two mostly on colder surfaces for our aarea. Very happy to get a nice high impact moderate snowstorm. It's been a couple years since we've had to have streets plowed like this. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
winterwx21 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Yeah it's picking up nicely. I have 5" here so far. I think we should at least be able to get to 6. Beautiful out there with the wet snow coating the trees. Best storm in a long time. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
winterwx21 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
It's a little south of its 12z run with a sharp cutoff for NW New Jersey, but very nice for our area. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
winterwx21 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
He had said that this could be rain up to Albany (lol), so no surprise that he's quiet now. -
12z CMC gives us a decent event on Saturday. Hopefully this is our big week.
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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
winterwx21 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Haha reminds me of the Kick The Can episode of The Twilight Zone. Anyway I'm so glad this trended in the right direction and we're actually gonna get lucky. I wasn't too high on this threat a few days ago. Looking good for at least a 4 to 6 inch storm for our area. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
winterwx21 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Wow Euro. Makes you wonder if the HRRR was onto something with the big solution. Tough forecast obviously ... 12z model runs should give us a better idea. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
winterwx21 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Glad to see this keeps trending in the right direction. Definitely enough to believe now that it will be more than just a coating to an inch or two for north-central NJ to NYC. I agree that upping it to 2 to 5 looks like a good idea. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
winterwx21 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Time to enjoy the afternoon and evening on Super Bowl Sunday. Not even gonna look at a crazy 18z NAM run lol. I'll be back to look at the 0z runs. -
2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations
winterwx21 replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
Yeah I think a coating to 2 inches is a good forecast for our area right now, but hoping it trends a little better so we can increase it to 1 to 3 tomorrow.