winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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Today's CMC does get a couple inches of snow up to our area late Tuesday. GFS is north compared to yesterday too. We're definitely still in the game with plenty of time for this to trend north. Don't think it will be a big storm but we can at least get it to trend far enough north to get a few inches. It would be nice to get an all snow event after these mix storms.
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I'll gladly take 2" of sleet over a rainstorm, that's for sure. We get to shovel and see frozen precip on the ground for awhile.
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I usually go to the supermarket on Saturday, but I moved it up to yesterday because I didn't want to deal with the insane crowds today as everyone shops in a panic before the winter storm. LOL. Yesterday it was nice and quiet at ShopRite. Anyway it's crazy that just hours before this storm we have the HRRR showing a big thump of snow for our area while the NAM is almost no snow with a lot of sleet. I think Don Sutherland has done a good job explaining that a middle ground scenario is most likely, but I'm still nervous that the NAM could be right about the lack of a thump and the warm layer. It scored the big victory on the last event. Man it would be nice for the HRRR to finally be right after having a rough winter, but I doubt that will happen. Only a slight chance.
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Tonight's Euro brushes us with a little snow Tuesday. Light accumulations. More significant for southern NJ. Close enough that it's still something to keep an eye on. Hopefully we can get it to trend back north, but I know for days SnowGoose has been concerned about a potential miss to the south. Would be frustrating after these mix storms to have an all snow event miss to the south. Hopefully that won't happen. I know GFS tonight was bad, but UKMET has our area on the edge of the significant snow. Still uncertain with plenty of time.
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Ukie is showing a nice thump for late tomorrow. As usual it's a very close call. Could go either way as far as getting several inches of snow or more mixing.
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This obviously isn't going to work. This banter threat is just going to turn into another OT. Most people here don't even look at that toxic OT because they don't want to see people fighting in a nasty way with each other over politics. Sad if we're going to have that in the NYC forum now. I hope Rjay and BxEngine will change their minds. Of course there is the option of not even looking at this banter thread anymore. I think many will do that, but it's a shame for people that would like to participate with weather banter or banter on lighter subjects.
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CMC is nice for late Tuesday. Hopefully we can get a few inches of slop tomorrow night, but the late Tuesday storm looks better because mixing doesn't look likely.
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We anxiously wait to see the Euro in a little while then. Hopefully we can at least get a 2 to 4 inch event from this.
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I also want to let you know that I appreciate you. I'll always remember how you had my back in OT even though you didn't agree with what I was saying.
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I could see allowing politics talk here if people can do it in a respectful manner. You're right about that OT ... it's an absolute cesspool. But the reason it's a cesspool is because people curse each other out and treat each other like garbage because they can't agree on politics. That's already starting to happen in the debate here. You say you and BxEngine are on the same page, but he has always been very strict that political BS isn't allowed here. I doubt he has had a change of heart, so I wouldn't be surprised if he deletes all of this when he sees it. But who knows, maybe you guys will agree on a politics allowed policy here now.
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There were 2 posters throwing personal insults at each other. At the very least that shouldn't be allowed. And as I said, BxEngine has said politics BS isn't allowed here. I'm sure he will delete all this stuff when he sees it.
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But you know BxEngine is going to flip out when he sees all this lol.
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Yeah. This is the type of talk that should be allowed in a weather banter thread. Not fighting about politics.
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It doesn't belong here. This is the NYC Metro weather forum, not OT. OT is where people are allowed to insult each other because they don't agree on politics. The mods are going to have a lot of posts to delete here.
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I never said that I think it won't be on the chopping block. You made an incorrect assumption here and in the February thread. It was simply power maintenance. Then you made the "laugh away" post. I laughed at your post because you made a ridiculous incorrect assumption. Not because I like what's going on or am in denial. I don't like Elon Musk. You shouldn't have even brought him up in a February weather thread anyway. Talking about politicians in a weather thread is against the rules.
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It was a scheduled power maintenance, as Don Sutherland pointed out in the other thread.
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Hopefully we can get a real thump like this Ukie run shows, unlike what happened this morning.
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CMC and UKMET are nice hits for Tuesday as well. This looks like by far our best threat of the winter, but obviously 5 days out is a long way to go when talking about a winter storm threat.
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0.4" of snow/sleet here, obviously mostly sleet. When I woke up at 5:30 and heard the pinging, I said NAM for the win lol. As SnowGoose and others pointed out, we didn't get the early thump to overcome the mid level warming that was coming in. Too bad, but still a pretty good impact with all the sleet.
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The Euro is nice for Tuesday. A nice solid 6 inch snowstorm. I think most of us would sign for that.
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Latest HRRR and Euro give northern NJ a few inches with 1 to 2 for our area. Things seem on track. This is a weather board filled with snow lovers. Even an inch or two is interesting to most of us. I think 1 to 2 is most likely, but there's always the slight chance that the NAM models will be right about this being a non event. We'll find out in a little while. This event is just the appetizer anyway with the next 2 (Saturday and Tuesday) looking more significant.
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And tonight's GFS and CMC are showing that more significant thump Saturday night. This one has the potential to be several inches.
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RGEM is 1 to 2. We knew that 3 was about the best case scenario for this event. Those runs showing 3 were probably a little overdone while the NAM models are likely underdone. 1 to 2 looks like a good call. I'm still optimistic that we can get 2. Looks like a decent thump.
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Hopefully the NAM models are wrong. Seems as if most models are giving us a few inches now. I'm becoming more excited about tomorrow morning.
