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winterwx21

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Everything posted by winterwx21

  1. winterwx21
    Amazing how much our winter changed with this one week. About 14 inches for me between the two storms so our area went from way below average snowfall to now about average for the season. Awesome week!
  2. winterwx21
    You would hope what is supposed to be a highly skilled short range model like HRRR would be able to pick up on something like this, but no. Late last night it was still insisting only a few inches.
  3. winterwx21
    Crazy. Can't believe I got 8 inches here when we were only expecting a few. This winter went from being terrible to not bad in the snowfall department for our area this week. Great storm!
  4. winterwx21
    Wow that's awesome! It looks like you might get 6 while I get 3 to 4 up here.
  5. winterwx21
    You have 3 inches already? Wow. I'm not up to an inch yet here. Coming down good but obviously a huge difference just a few miles to the south.
  6. winterwx21
    Beautiful scene out there. Trees got coated right away but now that it has fallen below freezing the road is coated. Wish I could stay up all night to watch this, but it's time for sleep. The way this band is setting up it appears that we're looking good for at least 3 to 4.
  7. winterwx21
    Really starting to pick up with that band now.
  8. winterwx21
    To me it appears that the nice band going across north-central NJ right now is heading right for the Island, and the latest HRRR is showing that happening.
  9. winterwx21
    Dusting on colder surfaces now. If the latest HRRR is right, our area is heading towards about 3 inches. I'll watch for another half hour and then go to bed. The one bad thing about overnight snow is it's during sleep. I'm not gonna stay up too long for an event that's a few inches, but it'll be nice to see the snow on the ground in the morning.
  10. winterwx21
    3km and HRRR continue to look good on the 18z runs as well. Looking like a decent chance that our area will get 4.
  11. winterwx21
    Perfect timing for accumulations too since it's happening during the overnight to early morning.
  12. winterwx21
    Glad to see this trended our way on the 12z models. 2 to 4 looks like a good call for most now. WWA for my area and as others have said, it'll likely be expanded north this afternoon.
  13. winterwx21
    Lost the RGEM but gained the GFS, lol. GFS went from the worst for our area this afternoon to now the best. Gets about 3 inches up to my area now. As usual it's a bumpy ride with the models in the few days before an event. Right now I'd say 1 to 3 is the best forecast, but we'll see what tomorrow brings.
  14. winterwx21
    Looks like it was both.
  15. winterwx21
    Yeah still enough time for a north bump. RGEM tonight looked lousy but HRRR and both NAMs looked ok, so it hasn't been a bad 0z suite so far. I'd love to see 3 to 4, but I'll be satisfied if we get 2.
  16. winterwx21
    After being very consistent the last couple days, RGEM just went well to the south. Hopefully it's a blip run. Everything else so far tonight at least gives us a couple inches.
  17. winterwx21
    Looks good. I want to see the 0z models before pulling the trigger on it, but hopefully we're looking at a nice 2 to 4 inch event.
  18. winterwx21
    That's what we needed to see to increase confidence a little bit. Still too early to know if we're gonna get a solid 2 to 3 inch event or just get brushed with a coating to inch type of event, but this Euro run at least makes me feel better that we're not seeing a significant south trend. Hopefully NAM will come back north this afternoon or tonight.
  19. winterwx21
    Yeah that sure is a stange error lol.
  20. winterwx21
    Nice catch, yeah that's pretty odd. At least it's not terribly far south.
  21. winterwx21
    And even moreso than being south, it just dries the system up as it moves east. Very little even for southern NJ.
  22. winterwx21
    Have to admit I'm starting to get a bad feeling even though I've always been a fan of the RGEM.
  23. winterwx21
    So basically right now we have no idea if we're gonna get 2-3 inches or almost nothing. Hopefully RGEM/Euro are right but can't have any confidence until the American models come back north. Hopefully we will see UKMET and Euro hold shortly. As usual a very difficult forecast a couple days before an event. It's never easy.
  24. winterwx21
    Bump north on the Euro as well. Looks similar to UKMET. Good way to end the night .... hopefully things will keep trending our way on Thursday.
  25. winterwx21
    Nice bump north on the Ukie. Gets a couple inches up to NYC and 3 to 4 for central NJ.
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