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winterwx21

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Everything posted by winterwx21

  1. winterwx21
    NAM gives us a little light snow from this. Right now nothing else looks as good as GFS, but hopefully some other models will come aboard. Still something to watch for a potential light snow event along with Friday.
  2. winterwx21
    GFS and Euro have light snow for central and southern NJ early Wednesday morning. That's a little something to keep an eye on along with the clipper for the end of the week. No major storms but maybe we can pull off a coating to an inch or two from those potential events.
  3. winterwx21
    Also the arctic blast coming in next Sunday looks extremely impressive. Maybe even colder than the one we're having now, which is crazy. It has been a long time since we've had a truly cold winter like this.
  4. winterwx21
    The regular Euro has a nice clipper for next Friday into Saturday, but of course that's way out there.
  5. winterwx21
    Got down to 5 here this morning. With the wind going calm tonight we have a good chance of getting down to 0, which would be the first time in quite awhile here.
  6. winterwx21
    After getting 10 inches of snow and sleet from this storm, I'm at 28.5" for the season. Nice to be at normal snowfall for an entire season and it's not even February yet.
  7. winterwx21
    This has turned into one heck of a sleet storm. Hour after hour of pounding sleet. What a snowstorm this would have been if not for the mixing.
  8. winterwx21
    To me a monster snowstorm is more like a foot and a half to 2 feet. 12 inches is a big snowstorm but far from historic. I got 8 inches here before the change to sleet.
  9. winterwx21
    A little frustrating that we're not getting a truly big snowstorm due to the change to sleet, but we saw the warning signs a couple days ago. Still a very nice storm. I'll sign up for 8 inches of snow and 1 to 2 inches of sleet anyday.
  10. winterwx21
    Exactly. What I don't like is when the ice is underneath the snow and you have to scrape hard to get it off the pavement. Much better if it's on top of the snow. This will be fine.
  11. winterwx21
    And when it does change to 100% sleet it will go on for awhile, so we'll add a decent amount of accumulation. Of course I don't like sleet as much as I like snow, but I still like it. Freezing rain is what I don't like.
  12. winterwx21
    What? NAM was the only model that was correct about it changing to sleet as early as 1pm here. It was just off a couple inches with the accumulation because it underestimated the thump. I have 8 here instead of the 6 that the NAM had before the mixing.
  13. winterwx21
    Lots of sleet mixed with the snow here now. About 8 inches so at least the thump was great. NAM was on the money with the early mixing.
  14. winterwx21
    Pingers here now. The NAM was right about the early mixing, but thankfully the thump was excellent.
  15. winterwx21
    Euro is aggressive in bringing in the mixing during the afternoon, but a nice thump before then. Hopefully the thump will be as advertised since the sleet will likely be here mid to late afternoon. I'd be happy with 7 or 8 before the mixing.
  16. winterwx21
    I think 6 to 10 is a good forecast for our area. Maybe 7 inches of snow and then 1 to 2 inches of sleet.
  17. winterwx21
    Much lower amounts by 21z on this NAM run. It doesn't have as strong of a thump before the change to sleet.
  18. winterwx21
    The NAM 3km flips us over to sleet here around 2pm ... that would be lousy.
  19. winterwx21
    Euro very aggressive in bringing in the sleet Sunday afternoon. Still a good thump before then, but it cut back snow amounts compared to the 12z run. The trends are not good with the mid level warming. Thank goodness we have such an extreme arctic airmass in place or else this event would fall apart.
  20. winterwx21
    Yep. Very unlikely that these short range models are going to be wrong about the mid level warming. It will probably look a little worse than what they're showing tonight as it gets closer. At least we know we'll get a front end dump before the sleet. Even if it's just 5 or 6 inches of snow and then a couple inches of sleet for our area, that's still a very nice winter storm that I'd be happy about.
  21. winterwx21
    What I don't like is when the ice is underneath the snow, like we had with a couple of the events this season. The wet snow melts at first so you end up having ice underneath the snow that you have to scrape hard to get up. Sleet on top of a powdery snow like we'll have this time won't be too bad to get up.
  22. winterwx21
    I'm at 18.5" here in Piscataway. Already a very good winter, so I'll be very happy even if this gets cut down to a 6 to 10 inch storm due to mixing. Would've loved all snow with a potential of a foot and a half like the models were showing a couple days ago, but I'm happy that we're looking at our best front end dump type of storm in quite awhile. This storm alone should get us close normal snowfall for an entire winter, and as you said we still have what is usually our best snow month (February) ahead of us.
  23. winterwx21
    People here have pointed out that CMC has better verification scores than GFS. To me it has seemed to do a better job than GFS the last several years.
  24. winterwx21
    We saw how much mixing the CMC showed on the 12z run and Euro brought in mixing early Sunday afternoon, so this ICON run isn't something new. We're trending in that direction. Hopefully our major snowstorm won't fall apart. We will get a front end dump due to the arctic air in place, but it wouldn't be a shock if it's just a mediocre 2 to 4 or 3 to 5 dump before mixing like we've seen many times in the past. Of course the big amounts are very possible too -- a long way to go with this.
  25. winterwx21
    The Euro brings in mixing issues early Sunday afternoon now. We might not know until we get into NAM range since that model is so good at sniffing out mixing problems.
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