winterwx21

I went outside last night at 1am and watched for an hour. As expected, it was nothing like last year's show due to the bright moon. The moon was in the part of the sky in which I saw the most meteors last year. It really ruined the show .... I only saw a few faint looking ones. I'm looking forward to the Geminid meteor shower in december. The moon won't be an issue so that should be by far the best meteor shower of the year. Hopefully we'll have clear skies for it. I don't care about being out there in colder weather as long as it's a nice show.

Almost no rain the last few weeks. We went from flooding to an extremely dry ground here. I'm having to water the vegetable garden almost every day. As Stormlover said, today's activity will be hit or miss. I'm really hoping we get a heavy downpour today, but I'm heading down to Seaside Heights so I won't be here to see it if it happens.

Had a high temp of 93 here today. 91 yesterday and 90 on Sunday. We'll make it a 4 day heat wave tomorrow. We'll see if we can make it a 5 day heat wave on Thursday ... it's gonna be close.

I see GFS now keeps the heat for Thursday on the 12z run. If we get any rain out of the way Wednesday night like this GFS run shows, the heat wave will continue on Thursday which the Euro has been showing.

And the Euro doesn't have as much activity Wednesday night and Thursday. The rain threat doesn't look great right now. It's really gonna be ugly by next weekend if we don't get any rain.

GFS keeps the heat going through next weekend, with maybe just a brief interruption on Thursday due to clouds and rain. I'm really hoping we see some rain Wednesday night or Thursday. It's very dry out there. The grass is burning out now.

That flooding that we had seems like a long time ago. It's gonna be rough next week with no rain to go along with the heat. I'm concerned about going into a drought in the coming weeks. This Euro run doesn't even give our area an inch of rain for the entire run. I hope it changes, but right now it looks like a very dry pattern. A lot of watering will be needed.

Euro really keeps the heat going for a long time though. This run says the heat wave will last all the way through next weekend for my area.

We've had almost no rain here since the flooding a few weeks ago. The ground is very dry and I'm having to water the vegetable garden often. Next week looks rough with very little chance of rain during the big heat wave. The grass will be burning out. I know Walt was talking about a potential flash drought a couple days ago. I hope we're not heading towards a drought like what happened last year at the end of the summer and the fall.

Talk about a hot Euro run. Heat wave next week, but it's even hotter in the long range for the week of the 18th. We're getting a nice break here in early August, but mid August is probably going to be the worst part of this summer. We had those extremely intense heat waves in late June and late July, but they only lasted a few days. The heat in mid August is going to be much longer lasting.

Yeah it definitely wasn't one of those winters with lots of days in the 50s. Average to slightly below average temps and frequent light snowfalls with a good amount of snowcover days. At least it felt and seemed like winter even though we missed the big snowstorms.

I hope Jaxson Dart takes over the job very quickly for you guys. No use wasting any time with Russell Wilson.

90 with a dewpoint of 56 here. 90 feels pretty good with the low humidity.

I had a cookout during the late afternoon and early evening. To me the mid to upper 70s here felt perfect for it.

Models are looking hot in the long range though. Enjoy the fairly comfortable first 8 or 9 days of August. We're probably going to have a heat wave during the 2nd week of the month.

I never said I wanted a deluge. I would have liked a couple heavy downpours to deliver a half inch to 1 inch to give everything out there a very good watering, instead of just a quarter inch. It's very dry here because we've gotten almost no rain since that flooding 2 and half weeks ago. But a quarter inch is a better than nothing ... I'll take it. Temp is all the way down to 72 too. I'll be going outside to run shortly and it will be nice to run in rain cooled air.

I got only 0.10" from the t-storm that brushed my area earlier. Now we're starting to add to that a little bit with some steady light to moderate rain and I'm up to 0.15" for the day so far. To me it appears I'm not going to get too much rain today. Maybe we end up with a quarter inch, just barely enough to water the garden. I was hoping for more significant rain today.

HRRR continues to show the extremely heavy rain amounts staying a little southwest of this area. We'll see.

I've been getting some 30 to 35mph gusts. Not too bad.

I've been watching the incredible lightning show in the north sky. Getting a heavy downpour and some wind right now too.

Yeah I was just working in the vegetable garden, and I heard it constantly. Seeing some signs on radar that that storm is trying to build south a little bit. Maybe we'll get some heavy rain from it.

Ridiculous, but I guess you can understand our area being extra nervous after having the incredibly bad luck of having 2 of our worst storms ever in a week and a half period earlier this month.

Now 15z no longer targeting our area, but who the heck knows. Radar certain looks good with lots of action in eastern PA and a few small cells popping up in Hunterdon County.

It is very dry here right now, so I'm hoping for some heavy rain. I'll take the 1 to 2 inches that this HRRR run shows for our area, but of course we don't want the huge flooding amounts that this run shows for Monmouth County. Obviously it's difficult for the model to pinpoint exactly where those jackpot amounts will occur. The next run will probably look different. Who knows.

And I see 12z GFS now brings in the blazing heat during the 2nd week of the month, maybe the hottest weather of the summer. A long way to go for details on how hot it will get, but we have building support for significant heat as Don pointed out. We need to enjoy the comfortable 1st week of the month before it gets very hot again.