winterwx21

Approaching a half inch so far here. With those decent looking radar returns in eastern PA, I think we have a good chance of at least getting to an inch.

Yep and this is why I kept saying I was staying interested and not giving up. It didn't take much for us to get a nice little 1 to 2 inch event out of this. Of course I want a bigger storm, but these small snow events are nice too. It's beautiful out there right now.

HRRR has been locked into our area getting an inch or so for the last several runs, and it appears that it's going to be correct. Nice steady light snow with everything covered, and we're on our way to an inch. Maybe an inch and a half. It's a nice little event.

We have a close call with snow tomorrow and a potential storm for next Saturday. Plus a consistent cold pattern. Plenty to talk about.

But we need the cold to at least have a shot at snow. The fact that January is looking like a cold month gives us a good chance to get some snow events. I'll be over the cold in March and rooting for warm weather as we head towards the gardening season, but for now I'm glad we're looking at a consistent cold pattern for the next few weeks. Hopefully it will produce.

Yeah that's certainly possible. It wouldn't be surprise if we just get a light coating, but I'm still very interested in this as long as we have a shot at getting 1 to 2 inches. I'm rooting for the HRRR to be correct but it could be overdoing it.

Was hoping to get a better idea with it moving one way or the other this morning, but it still looks like a very close call for our area here in Middlesex County. We could get a couple inches or just a little coating. As Walt said snow ratios will be better than 10:1, so that's a positive. At least we're still in the game to get an inch or so.

If HRRR and NAM are correct our area is getting an advisory level event, but of course we have a ways to go to find out if they're correct. Still a very tough call with our area being near the edge of the accumulating snow, but we're definitely seeing some encouraging signs. .

And with how NAM and HRRR look, our area is still in the game. NE of NYC has no shot, but our area can get a couple inches out of this. I think people have been giving up too early since the mesoscale models will have a better idea on the northern extent of the precip. Let's hope the HRRR is onto something. This can end up more south with our area getting almost nothing, but we do have a shot.

Sounds like it's another OT over there lol.

Haha. Well at least the CMC keeps next weekend's storm to the south. I'm glad we still have something to watch if Monday ends up being a complete fail with snow missing us to the south.

As I said last night, it's still too early to give up for our area. Obviously the significant amounts are going to be to the south, but I think we're seeing enough this morning to believe that our area still has a shot to get a couple inches. Hopefully we'll see some more little north bumps tonight into tomorrow. Our area is very close to the edge right now ... we only need a slight change.

I agree with you. I see 0z Euro is about the same as the 12z run ... it gives us a little light snow with maybe a half inch to an inch. Maybe this event will keep trending worse and we won't get a flake, but it's still possible for our area to get 1 to 2 inches. As long as that's possible I'll keep rooting for this. To me a little snow is a lot better than no snow at all.

Not looking good but it's still too early to give up. SnowGoose gave the reason why there could be a major change in the 24 to 36 hours before the event.

At 72 hours away it's still too early to say models are locked in for sure. Model skill isn't that good. I don't think we're going to get a major shift that gives us a big snowstorm, but we could get enough of a north bump that our area gets a few inches. I could also see our area only getting a half inch coating. We'll see. At least it will be cold enough that even a very light snow will accumulate.

Only a shade better, but at least it's still early enough that slight improvements are ok. I wouldn't want to be north and east of NYC for this one, but our area still has a shot at getting a few inches of snow.

And 12z GFS does give us a snow event next Saturday. Way too early take that one very seriously, but I would think we'll have at least 1 more opportunity before the pattern breaks down.

CMC not surprisingly looks similar to RGEM. It gets the light snow pretty far north and at least gives most of the area an inch of snow.

Yep and I'm not giving up. Our area is right near the edge on the GFS. We just need the usual slight north bumps in the 48 hours before the storm. RGEM does get the light snow shield pretty far north. Don't know if it's right on that, but hopefully we can pull off at least an inch or so of snow like it shows. Hopefully we'll get some north bumps to get more than that, but to me an inch is a lot better than getting shut out. Right now I think our area still has a decent chance of pulling off a light snow event.

Figured the HRRR was off its rocker on the 18z run since no other model guidance showed anything like that. I doubt there will be anything more than a coating on colder surfaces in most spots down there.

It sucks that this happens very often in the days before winter storm threats. I wish the model technology was better.

GFS a significant snowstorm while Euro just brushes us with a little light snow. Crazy, but we're used to it. Very often we see these huge model differences 3 to 4 days before an event. You'd hope to have a good idea 3 to 4 days before an event, but very often we have to wait until 48 hours before the event and sometimes it takes until the day before. Who the heck knows at this point. Hopefully the models will be in agreement tomorrow night.

It's usually a wild ride for us in the several days before a snow event with the flip flopping models. I do think the UKMET solution is extremely unlikely though. As Snowgoose said, it's ridiculously progressive with the shortwave. I think at the very least our area will see a light accumulating snow like the CMC shows, but hopefully something a little more significant. Euro in an hour will be interesting to see.

CMC nothing like the GFS. The confluence eats away some of the snow and we only get an inch or two. Still a long way to go to figure this out, but at least it's very likely that we'll get some accumulating snow.

Yeah I was just gonna mention that too. I know we don't put much stock in long range NAM, but it certainly looks good at hour 84.