winterwx21

Haha. Well at least the CMC keeps next weekend's storm to the south. I'm glad we still have something to watch if Monday ends up being a complete fail with snow missing us to the south.

As I said last night, it's still too early to give up for our area. Obviously the significant amounts are going to be to the south, but I think we're seeing enough this morning to believe that our area still has a shot to get a couple inches. Hopefully we'll see some more little north bumps tonight into tomorrow. Our area is very close to the edge right now ... we only need a slight change.

I agree with you. I see 0z Euro is about the same as the 12z run ... it gives us a little light snow with maybe a half inch to an inch. Maybe this event will keep trending worse and we won't get a flake, but it's still possible for our area to get 1 to 2 inches. As long as that's possible I'll keep rooting for this. To me a little snow is a lot better than no snow at all.

Not looking good but it's still too early to give up. SnowGoose gave the reason why there could be a major change in the 24 to 36 hours before the event.

At 72 hours away it's still too early to say models are locked in for sure. Model skill isn't that good. I don't think we're going to get a major shift that gives us a big snowstorm, but we could get enough of a north bump that our area gets a few inches. I could also see our area only getting a half inch coating. We'll see. At least it will be cold enough that even a very light snow will accumulate.

Only a shade better, but at least it's still early enough that slight improvements are ok. I wouldn't want to be north and east of NYC for this one, but our area still has a shot at getting a few inches of snow.

And 12z GFS does give us a snow event next Saturday. Way too early take that one very seriously, but I would think we'll have at least 1 more opportunity before the pattern breaks down.

CMC not surprisingly looks similar to RGEM. It gets the light snow pretty far north and at least gives most of the area an inch of snow.

Yep and I'm not giving up. Our area is right near the edge on the GFS. We just need the usual slight north bumps in the 48 hours before the storm. RGEM does get the light snow shield pretty far north. Don't know if it's right on that, but hopefully we can pull off at least an inch or so of snow like it shows. Hopefully we'll get some north bumps to get more than that, but to me an inch is a lot better than getting shut out. Right now I think our area still has a decent chance of pulling off a light snow event.

Figured the HRRR was off its rocker on the 18z run since no other model guidance showed anything like that. I doubt there will be anything more than a coating on colder surfaces in most spots down there.

It sucks that this happens very often in the days before winter storm threats. I wish the model technology was better.

GFS a significant snowstorm while Euro just brushes us with a little light snow. Crazy, but we're used to it. Very often we see these huge model differences 3 to 4 days before an event. You'd hope to have a good idea 3 to 4 days before an event, but very often we have to wait until 48 hours before the event and sometimes it takes until the day before. Who the heck knows at this point. Hopefully the models will be in agreement tomorrow night.

It's usually a wild ride for us in the several days before a snow event with the flip flopping models. I do think the UKMET solution is extremely unlikely though. As Snowgoose said, it's ridiculously progressive with the shortwave. I think at the very least our area will see a light accumulating snow like the CMC shows, but hopefully something a little more significant. Euro in an hour will be interesting to see.

CMC nothing like the GFS. The confluence eats away some of the snow and we only get an inch or two. Still a long way to go to figure this out, but at least it's very likely that we'll get some accumulating snow.

Yeah I was just gonna mention that too. I know we don't put much stock in long range NAM, but it certainly looks good at hour 84.

I meant the 12z Euro run.

The trend is our friend, despite that slightly disappointing Euro run.

This is how it's looking right now, and I'd be ok with that. Give me 2 inches Monday and I'll be happy. It would feel like deep winter with snow on the ground and cold weather all next week. Of course we're still almost 4 days out, so plenty of time for this to trend in our direction. Hopefully we'll see the confluence trend weaker and we can get a north bump.

Hopefully we can get enough of a north bump that it's very good for Philly. If that's the case we'd at least have a decent chance of getting a few inches up here.

Yeah 6 days is an eternity when it comes to storm theats. The models will flip flop for quite awhile. No use worrying about in now on New Year's Eve. It's time to celebrate the holiday tonight and tomorrow. I wish everyone a Happy New Year! Hopefully the storm threat will look good later in the week.

To me any accumulating snow is a good thing. Hopefully we'll get something bigger, but odds are very high that we'll at least see light events with the extended cold weather that we're going to have in January. It's going to snow.

Yeah if we get consistent cold for a couple weeks in January (which looks very likely), odds are very high that we'll get a snow event at some point.

66 degrees here! Nice to have some very warm weather before the cold pattern settles in.

45 degrees here. Nice recovery from the mid teens this morning. Feels comfortable out there.

At least January is looking cold. That gives us a good chance. Way too early to take any storms threats seriously or worry about the models not showing any storms threats. With consistent cold weather, odds are pretty high that we'll get a decent amount of snow in January. Even if it's just light to moderate events.