winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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Way too early to get excited, but Wednesday into Thursday looks like our best potential so far this winter.
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13.5" for the season here. Not doing too bad in the snowfall department, but a little disappointing to be slightly below normal considering how cold it has been. We can nickel and dime our way to 20 inches, but hopefully we'll see a significant snowstorm at some point so we can get to average snowfall (high 20s here) for the season.
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Ended up with 1.5" here. Nice little event. I wish we could have gotten a few inches like all those NAM runs showed, but not a surprise since the NAM models are terrible. The more reasonable models like Euro did well with this event. There were many model runs that kept showing 1.5 to 2 for a lot of the area, and they ended up being right on the money.
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Yeah that batch in eastern PA definitely weakened. After pretty much just flurries here for an hour during that lull, it has now picked back up to light snow with those slightly better echoes moving in. This last little batch of light snow might be just enough to get us to 1.5" here in Piscataway. I see the better echoes are missing me a few miles to the south. Time for me to finally try to get some sleep now, lol.
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Went outside to measure before going to bed. 1.2" here in Piscataway at 1:15am. Very light snow with tiny flakes continues. It takes forever to get to 1 inch with this type of snow. I see on radar there are some better returns in eastern PA. Maybe we can get a little better burst at the end of the event to end up somewhere between 1.5 and 2 here. NAM models not surprisingly were overdone, but there were many other models the last couple days that showed this area getting 1.5 to 2. Good job by Euro and a few other models. I know some people are only interested in bigger storms and of course I'd rather have one, but I still really enjoy these little 1 to 2 inch snow events. It's beautiful out there. I'm glad it's going to be cloudy with temps only making it slightly above freezing later today, so there won't be a lot of melting. Nice that we'll get to enjoy this snow for a day.
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Not impossible, but SnowGoose certainly has a good point. And a couple days ago there were models showing us getting a couple inch front end with tomorrow night's storm, but now it appears that won't happen. Too early to tell if we're gonna pull off a little front end accumulation with the weekend storm. Like SnoSki said, mid to late next week is the next really interesting potential. Hopefully we can finally get a more significant snowstorm, but a very long way to go on that one.
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I was just outside as well. Beautiful. I measured 0.8" here. Radar doesn't look too bad. I think we're on track to get about an inch and a half here. Looks like a compromise between the underdone HRRR and overdone NAM runs that we saw before the storm.
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Another light snowfall in this winter of nickel and dimes, but it's beautiful out there. This beats the sleet that we had the other night.
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The street is coated here now too. Good to see it accumulating, but it's very slow accumulation with these light snowfall rates. I think we get around an inch here, maybe an inch and a half if we're lucky.
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HRRR and NAM 3km moved towards each other and came into agreement as this event got underway. Definitely looks as if NAM was overdone and HRRR was underdone before the event. Models are usually more and more accurate the closer you get to an event, so it's always still time to watch them.
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A dusting here as light snow continues. Hopefully we can at least get an inch.
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NAM 3km cut NYC down to 1 inch. Looks as if the HRRR was onto something, but at least we're getting some snow. Will keep watching radar of course. Not completely out of the question that we can pull off 2 inches, but it isn't looking as good now.
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And it cut way back for NYC. HRRR was a good warning that NAM was overdone, even though some of those HRRR runs went too far in keeping all the snow to the south.
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Yep. Those HRRR runs that went way south and gave us nothing were off, but they were also a sign that the very bullish NAM runs were overdone. Looks like a compromise. I'm now thinking our area is just gonna get just around an inch.
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The 20z run still only gives us a dusting. Crazy if it's gonna be this far off. We're only several hours away from the start of the event, so it's not as if it's long range for the HRRR. It's going to be an embarrassment for that model to miss this badly if it's wrong.
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17z HRRR run gave us only a dusting, lol. I assume it's out to lunch and will start waking up the next few runs, but you never know for sure. It could be right about our area getting almost nothing just as a surprise 4 or 5 inches could happen, but most likely a middle ground will happen. I like 2 inches for my area.
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HRRR continues to look awful ... 16z run doesn't even get a half inch up to our area. Obviously HRRR is an outlier though and I wouldn't put much stock in it. I agree with SnowGoose though that we shouldn't put much stock in the terrible NAM model too. Probably overdone. Most other models (including 12z Euro just out) get close to 2 inches up to our area, so that isn't too bad. 2 inches still looks most likely for our area, so 1 to 3 continues to be a good call.
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HRRR went south on the 0z run. Only gets a coating up to our area. Hopefully it's off. That model has not been great this winter.
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Ukie not bad on the 18z run too. Gets 2 inches about up to our area. Everything seems on track for a 1 to 3 inch snowfall. I hope to see the HRRR start bumping north on the 0z run.
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Looks like a cold pattern for awhile after the weekend rain. Hopefully that cold air will set us up for some snow. Long range so who knows.
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Pretty much everything is showing 1 to 2 right now, except for the slightly more bullish NAM that shows a few inches. Still enough time for a north bump, but right now 1 to 3 looks like a good forecast. Maybe another inch or two Wednesday night before the mixing. This is the winter of numerous light snowfalls. Wish we could get a bigger snowstorm, but at least this beats a warm winter with almost no snow. Appears we're at least gonna nickel and dime our way to 20 inches for the winter which isn't terrible. Still hoping we get lucky with a bigger storm late month though.
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Euro just came north slightly. Pretty much every model tonight is giving our area close to 2 inches, so 1 to 3 looks like a good call right now. Hopefully tomorrow we'll get a slight north bump so we can up it to 2 to 4.
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We don't need a big shift to get into 3 to 6 though, just as a small shift can leave us with almost nothing. Still enough time. At least right now if the models hold we'll get a couple inches Tuesday night. It was good to see the GFS shift north.
