winterwx21

Yes so you agree with the point that I made. The NAM being so flat could be a sign that the RGEM is over amped.

True. It's likely that both the RGEM and NAM will be embarrassed.

Yeah a middle ground solution still seems most likely, which would be good for our area.

Haha. Yeah, either one. Either the NAM or RGEM is gonna be embarrassed here.

But that's my point. The fact that the historically over amped NAM isn't over amped right now could be a sign that the RGEM is way off and rain isn't as much of a concern.

I would think the NAM being so much less amped is a good sign that the RGEM is off with being so amped, so to me that's good news.

He lives on Long Island where an event like this is more borderline, so there's reason to be cautious.

Yeah that's true. That's the best thing to do, but I don't see a problem with posting Kuchera maps since they help at least somewhat. For many of our events they've been closer to reality when they've showed very good or very poor snow ratios.

There's a lot of debate among meteorologists about it. At least Kuchera takes something into account while 10:1 takes nothing into account. The Kuchera maps are far from perfect but they help in situations in which you're going to be better or worse than 10:1 ratio.

Even if the other models slowly trend towards the RGEM, I would think our area is far enough to the NW to be ok. That would be more of a problem for the coast. The RGEM would have to be competely right for our area to have a problem. We have enough wiggle room on the other models. But as I said, you never know for sure. We're not completely out of the woods.

The cold air push looks too strong for the snow event to make it up here on Wednesday. CMC is probably wrong on that.

ICON is a decent hit for the NYC area. If we get a compromise between the ampted RGEM and suppressed NAM we'll be looking good. Still hard to believe that the RGEM will be right since it is all alone, but you never know for sure.

I'd be happy with the ICON solution too. 3 inches would seem like a pretty good event after all the half inch to 1 inch events we've had this winter.

Yeah long range NAM is terrible, but the fact that it's THAT far out to sea is a pretty good hint that the RGEM is way off. I'm not gonna worry about the Canadian models since they're alone with a wildly different solution than all other models.

Nice to see the dusting out there.

It would be impressive to have a January that finishes 4 degrees below normal. A real winter month for a change.

The Canadian models have been the warm/amped models. Everything else gives us all snow.

Looks like three nights in a row next week that we're gonna have a low temp of around 5 degrees here. Very impressive cold.

LOL he admits that he trolls a lot. He literally has said many times that he's not genuine with a lot of the stuff he posts. Of course that doesn't mean that he isn't a good meteorologist though. Some of his posts are valuable.

Forky hates snow weenies and loves to troll. I doubt he really thinks it will be mostly rain Sunday.

A Couple days ago the CMC was showing rain even well to the NW, before it started to correct somewhat. We know that model has been way off. Not very likely that it's gonna rain Sunday.

UKMET continues to look good. Plenty cold with a solid 3 to 5 inch hit for most of the area.

After the UKMET looked very nice, I was hoping the Euro would show an improvement. No dice. It just brushes us with a coating of snow. CMC is probably overdone and will likely continue to correct, but hopefully the fact that it's so amped is a sign that the southeast/weak models are also off. I'm hoping we can pull off a middle ground solution like tonight's UKMET is showing. Obviously though with still 3 and a half days to go, anything is still on the table. We probably won't have a good idea until Friday or Saturday.

A little early to talk accumulations, but right now I'd go 1 to 3 for Sunday. CMC is obviously out to lunch with its warm solution. Hopefully we can get a couple inches on the ground for the cold next week ... it would really feel like deep winter.

The timing for this potential little snow wave seems to be moving up too. Euro and some other models now have it Sunday afternoon instead of late Sunday night into Monday. Let's hope we can pull off a light snow event Sunday and then a more significant one mid next week. Glad we have some things to track.