winterwx21
-
Posts
4,564 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by winterwx21
-
And 0z HRRR really shows what you're talking about. The significant rain really struggles to get up into our area on the HRRR. It weakens and a lot of northern NJ and the NYC area gets less than a half inch. It's far from a sure thing that the first round of rain on saturday is gonna be significant. Saturday will be a rainy day for sure, but it could just be light to moderate amounts up here with the heavier stuff staying south.
-
Pretty impressive that most of the positive departure from the extremely hot first week of the month is being wiped out.
-
Yeah it still ends up a nice soaking even though the significant rain can't get too far northwest on saturday, thanks to rain continuing on sunday. There's definitely a signal from some models for significant rain struggling to get well to the north and west on saturday. Even on the RGEM our heaviest rain comes sunday morning. Saturday is gonna be a wet day, but it's possible that it's just a moderate amount of rain for our area (heavier at the coast) with our heavier rain coming sunday. But of course there are some models that get the heavier rain up here saturday, so who knows. Still will be a little while before we know the details, but overall the weekend is a big washout with a lot of rain.
-
As perfect as it gets today. Mid 70s with dewpoints in the mid 40s. It sucks that the weekend is gonna be a washout, but spending a lot of time outside today.
-
Yesterday I was hoping the east trend would continue, but the CMC has been so consistent and everything else also gives us a big soaking. UKMET is a crazy model.
-
That's the GFS. Ukie isn't out yet.
-
Looks like around October 1st is when above normal temps come back.
-
Looking more and more like we're not gonna have much of an event this weekend. CMC is a good model and has been very consistent in giving us a lot of rain, but there's too much other evidence now that this is going to be too far east. We're probably either gonna get nothing at all or just brushed by a light amount of rain. Obviously we'll keep an eye on it though in case CMC and NAM are onto something. You never know.
-
UKMET is well east for saturday. Just brushes the Jersey shore and LI with a little light rain.
-
Yeah the idea of the whole month of September being warm didn't work out. All of the big September warmth was confined to the first third of the month. For the rest of the month it's just mostly near normal temps.
-
Give it a try sometime. They do a lot of great special soft serve flavors. I am gonna get soft graham cracker today.
-
As Allsnow said, we just can't get rid of this rainy pattern. I was hoping for a nice weekend, but what are you going to do. Will take advantage of the beautiful weather we have now during the week. I'm heading to Hunterdon County to do some hiking and will stop at Polar Cub for some ice cream.
-
And the CMC gets 4 inches of rain to our area.
-
CMC still showing a big soaker for saturday on the 12z run. Rain gets going mid morning.
-
Today through thursday is just about the best 3 day stretch of the year. Sunny, mid 70s and very low humidity. As perfect as it gets.
-
Yep have to give the Euro credit even though it didn't see the screw zone. Euro was a little overdone but it had the right idea of this being a pretty significant event when other models were not impressed at all. We got much more rain than I thought we would.
-
1.18" here so far. Nice soaking. Perfect weather the next few days. Sunny with high temps mid-upper 70s and very low humidity. Dewpoints should get down to the high 40s.
-
I think a quarter to half inch is a good forecast for our area. Looks like a meh event. I'm looking forward to the spectacular weather tuesday through friday with dewpoints dropping down to the 40s.
-
But 12z RGEM not giving much except for central-eastern LI and well to the northwest. Overall I think it's looking like a decent soaking, but nothing like what those earlier Euro runs were showing. Maybe we can get a half inch here. Probably have to go well to the east to get much more significant rain.
-
Still a mostly dry 10 day period. Just 1 little period of rain (sunday night into monday) in the middle of the overall dry stretch.
-
So far the 0z models not impressed. RGEM, HRRR and both NAMs giving just a light to moderate amount of rain. Those Euro runs were probably overdoing it by a lot. Right now I'd say this is looking like a quarter to half inch of rain for most.
-
Yeah that's looking like a possibility. The 18z RGEM just has some light rain for us monday morning. The heavier rain for the afternoon with the coastal misses well to the east (central and eastern LI). Of course some other models get the heavy rain further to the west, so it's too early to call this one. Obviously we'll get a much better idea tomorrow. But no matter what happens with this monday, the weather for the rest of the week is going to be spectacular. Sunny with high temps mid to upper 70s and very low humidity. Probably the best stretch of weather for the year coming up.
-
Some showers sunday night into monday, but what a stretch of weather after that. Tuesday through thursday sunny with high temps in the upper 70s and dewpoints down around 50. Some top 10 days of the year in there. The beautiful weather looks to continue through next weekend too.
-
Yep definitely a top 10. 79 degrees with a dewpoint of 48 here, and not a cloud in the sky. Spectacular weather today.
-
Beautiful outside with dewpoints down to the low 50s, and heading down into the high 40s this afternoon. They'll stay in the 40s the next 2 days. Just a brief minor humidity spike sunday night into monday (dewpoints near 60) with a couple showers possible, and then back to spectacular weather tuesday and wednesday with dewpoints falling back down to the low 50s. So overall a nice low humidity stretch over the next week, as you would hope for in mid September. Long range looks warm as bluewave talked about, but in late September that type of pattern would result in some days with high temps in the low 80s and dewpoints around 60. Nice extended summer weather.
