winterwx21

Yeah that's true. That's the best thing to do, but I don't see a problem with posting Kuchera maps since they help at least somewhat. For many of our events they've been closer to reality when they've showed very good or very poor snow ratios.

There's a lot of debate among meteorologists about it. At least Kuchera takes something into account while 10:1 takes nothing into account. The Kuchera maps are far from perfect but they help in situations in which you're going to be better or worse than 10:1 ratio.

Even if the other models slowly trend towards the RGEM, I would think our area is far enough to the NW to be ok. That would be more of a problem for the coast. The RGEM would have to be competely right for our area to have a problem. We have enough wiggle room on the other models. But as I said, you never know for sure. We're not completely out of the woods.

The cold air push looks too strong for the snow event to make it up here on Wednesday. CMC is probably wrong on that.

ICON is a decent hit for the NYC area. If we get a compromise between the ampted RGEM and suppressed NAM we'll be looking good. Still hard to believe that the RGEM will be right since it is all alone, but you never know for sure.

I'd be happy with the ICON solution too. 3 inches would seem like a pretty good event after all the half inch to 1 inch events we've had this winter.

Yeah long range NAM is terrible, but the fact that it's THAT far out to sea is a pretty good hint that the RGEM is way off. I'm not gonna worry about the Canadian models since they're alone with a wildly different solution than all other models.

Nice to see the dusting out there.

It would be impressive to have a January that finishes 4 degrees below normal. A real winter month for a change.

The Canadian models have been the warm/amped models. Everything else gives us all snow.

Looks like three nights in a row next week that we're gonna have a low temp of around 5 degrees here. Very impressive cold.

LOL he admits that he trolls a lot. He literally has said many times that he's not genuine with a lot of the stuff he posts. Of course that doesn't mean that he isn't a good meteorologist though. Some of his posts are valuable.

Forky hates snow weenies and loves to troll. I doubt he really thinks it will be mostly rain Sunday.

A Couple days ago the CMC was showing rain even well to the NW, before it started to correct somewhat. We know that model has been way off. Not very likely that it's gonna rain Sunday.

UKMET continues to look good. Plenty cold with a solid 3 to 5 inch hit for most of the area.

After the UKMET looked very nice, I was hoping the Euro would show an improvement. No dice. It just brushes us with a coating of snow. CMC is probably overdone and will likely continue to correct, but hopefully the fact that it's so amped is a sign that the southeast/weak models are also off. I'm hoping we can pull off a middle ground solution like tonight's UKMET is showing. Obviously though with still 3 and a half days to go, anything is still on the table. We probably won't have a good idea until Friday or Saturday.

A little early to talk accumulations, but right now I'd go 1 to 3 for Sunday. CMC is obviously out to lunch with its warm solution. Hopefully we can get a couple inches on the ground for the cold next week ... it would really feel like deep winter.

The timing for this potential little snow wave seems to be moving up too. Euro and some other models now have it Sunday afternoon instead of late Sunday night into Monday. Let's hope we can pull off a light snow event Sunday and then a more significant one mid next week. Glad we have some things to track.

I agree. I was half joking with my comment. I could see the Sunday night into Monday wave becoming a moderate event, but a long way to go on that one. It'll be quite awhile before we have a better idea on next week's threats.

This is the winter of light snowfalls for our area, so it would make sense. We'll probably get another inch next Sunday night lol. At least it would stay on the ground with the very cold weather next week.

The departure for January should increase though with the cold coming next week and in the long range. Don Sutherland's latest estimate is that January will finish 3 degrees below normal.

GFS looked interesting as well. Long range for late January has potential. The light snow events have been nice, but we really need a more significant event.

Hopefully we can still pull off a snowstorm or two if we have a warm February. Last winter our area got lucky with the 2 snowstorms in one week in February.

Yeah that was weird how HRRR took away the snow for a few runs after the 0z run. Obviously an error. It's annoying how inconsistent that model can be. Anyway I got 0.6" here. Not bad. We got our half inch to inch as expected, although I see some spots got lucky and got up to an inch and a half. Another nice little light snow event. Pretty out there. We've nickel and dimed our way to 6 inches on the season here. Not too bad, but I hope we get a bigger event later January. Obviously we won't be able to continue to nickel and dime our way to near near normal snowfall all season. We need some bigger events.

I see RGEM just bumped up to an inch for our area too. Good to see that our area is looking good for an inch on the 0z models. I know we want much more, but we were pretty happy with how nice it looked outside on Monday when we got the inch. These small events are still nice. I'll be happy if we have an inch on the ground tomorrow morning.