winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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I'm actually having a cookout saturday too. I'm hoping friday and sunday will be the more active days with saturday mostly dry.
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93 degrees here right now, but it doesn't feel oppressive with the dewpoint at 60. There will be some activity thursday night and friday, but it doesn't look like a widespread major event. Hopefully we'll get a downpour here. I watered the garden yesterday because it was already starting to get dry again. We really missed out on that last event, so hopefully we'll get something friday or over the weekend.
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Yep hot but lower humidity the next 2 days. Dewpoints might get down to the high 50s tomorrow. Late week into the weekend just looks like typical summer weather with higher humidity and isolated to widely scattered activity.
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And you gave some of us weenies early yesterday when we pointed out that our area might not get heavy rain since the models had our area near the sharp cutoff. Hopefully at some point you will learn your lesson and stop giving these silly weenies to realistic posts, lol.
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I know you were pessimistic when you came on early today and pointed out that radar wasn't looking encouraging for our area. Nice call.
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Yeah it was too far south with that heavy rain on the southern part of the line, but overall it did a good job showing the heavy rain falling apart rapidly for much of eastern NJ. We might not even get a quarter inch out of this. Not a big surprise though as we talked about the close call with the possibility of the heavy rain staying just to our west. There was a good signal on the models that it would fall apart close to our area.
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Looks like RGEM did a good job. It's weakening quickly now like the 18z run showed.
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Steady light to moderate rain here. Not looking like it's gonna be that impressive for our area. I'm thinking a quarter to half inch the way radar looks right now. At least a decent watering.
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It's downright comical that the latest run of HRRR now gives my area nothing at all tonight. You can see from the way radar looks that it's gonna be way off.
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Hopefully you're right about that. The heavy rain really falls apart on the RGEM too, but definitely could see how these models are wrong and we get hit hard.
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That line of heavy rain falls apart quickly tonight on 18z RGEM. It'll be interesting to see if it can hold together enough for our area. Radar certainly looks good right now.
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
winterwx21 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
Yeah but you give out weenies to people sometimes just for making reasonable posts about expectations. Remember in late June when we had that pattern where NJ got crushed but very little rain got to NYC and east. There was a day that you claimed that NYC was about to get hit. I made the point that all the activity in NJ was moving north and nothing was on track to hit NYC. You gave me a weenie for that post. What happened? The rain stayed in NJ and NYC didn't get hit. It's very odd that you give weenies to reasonable posts as often as you do. -
18z run of HRRR has us right on the edge. It falls apart quickly as it hits eastern NJ. It's far from a lock that we're going to see heavy rain tonight. We might but who knows at this point. Close call.
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Yeah had a little downpour here. Isolated stuff early to mid afternoon before the main show arrives late afternoon.
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I'd like to see more, but yeah the storm on July 4th was tremendous. Can't complain too much if we miss out on the big stuff today.
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I think we'll do well, but we're close enough to the sharp cutoff zone that obviously there's some risk. Hopefully we'll get hammered.
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And the 12z run of RGEM hammers northern NJ but has the heavy rain falling apart as it moves into NYC. Some rain for NYC and western LI on the RGEM, but not a lot. Very little for the Jeresy shore on the RGEM as well. Obviously some areas will get major flooding from this event, but some areas will get screwed.
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I love your posts and usually agree, but I don't agree about tuesday and wednesday. It's gonna be hot tuesday and wednesday for sure, but to me it looks as if we'll get a little break from the high humidity those days with dewpoints falling to the low 60s. We probably won't have storm chances those days either. Humidity and storm chances go back up late week.
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Yeah I see than tiny cell right over you, just a few miles to my north. Another tiny cell in the northwest corner of my county. Maybe that one will drift my way. These cells today are so small though that most places will stay dry.
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And I see the 12z runs of NAM and 3km NAM are keeping most of the activity to the north and west today. Again though there is a slight chance. On radar right now you can see a few very small pop ups near our area.
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Yep as Allsnow said the other day, most of the activity will be to the west until late sunday. There will be some isolated pop ups around our area, so there's a slight chance we'll see something today. Hopefully the whole area will get a good soaking tomorrow night.
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All the rain we've gotten since late June really rejuvenated the lawns. I had never seen so much brown grass so early in the season in May and most lawns seemed burned out in June. I didn't think we would get back to regular lawn cutting, but it's amazing how quickly it's growing now.
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You're right that it didn't feel oppressive today. The dewpoint got down to 64 here this afternoon. Not too bad. It didn't feel that bad exercising outside this afternoon.
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Yeah it seemed as if we were in the clear since the activity to the north fizzled out, but then that 1 tiny cell popped up and went right over us. Had to delay the start of our cookout until that downpour passed around 6pm. I ended up with 1.84" for the day. Very nice, and thankfully it cleared out as expected and was dry for all the fireworks. The 4th is the best holiday of the year.
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Yup that's a great point.
