winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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Hopefully you're right about that. The heavy rain really falls apart on the RGEM too, but definitely could see how these models are wrong and we get hit hard.
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That line of heavy rain falls apart quickly tonight on 18z RGEM. It'll be interesting to see if it can hold together enough for our area. Radar certainly looks good right now.
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
winterwx21 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
Yeah but you give out weenies to people sometimes just for making reasonable posts about expectations. Remember in late June when we had that pattern where NJ got crushed but very little rain got to NYC and east. There was a day that you claimed that NYC was about to get hit. I made the point that all the activity in NJ was moving north and nothing was on track to hit NYC. You gave me a weenie for that post. What happened? The rain stayed in NJ and NYC didn't get hit. It's very odd that you give weenies to reasonable posts as often as you do. -
18z run of HRRR has us right on the edge. It falls apart quickly as it hits eastern NJ. It's far from a lock that we're going to see heavy rain tonight. We might but who knows at this point. Close call.
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Yeah had a little downpour here. Isolated stuff early to mid afternoon before the main show arrives late afternoon.
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I'd like to see more, but yeah the storm on July 4th was tremendous. Can't complain too much if we miss out on the big stuff today.
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I think we'll do well, but we're close enough to the sharp cutoff zone that obviously there's some risk. Hopefully we'll get hammered.
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And the 12z run of RGEM hammers northern NJ but has the heavy rain falling apart as it moves into NYC. Some rain for NYC and western LI on the RGEM, but not a lot. Very little for the Jeresy shore on the RGEM as well. Obviously some areas will get major flooding from this event, but some areas will get screwed.
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I love your posts and usually agree, but I don't agree about tuesday and wednesday. It's gonna be hot tuesday and wednesday for sure, but to me it looks as if we'll get a little break from the high humidity those days with dewpoints falling to the low 60s. We probably won't have storm chances those days either. Humidity and storm chances go back up late week.
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Yeah I see than tiny cell right over you, just a few miles to my north. Another tiny cell in the northwest corner of my county. Maybe that one will drift my way. These cells today are so small though that most places will stay dry.
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And I see the 12z runs of NAM and 3km NAM are keeping most of the activity to the north and west today. Again though there is a slight chance. On radar right now you can see a few very small pop ups near our area.
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Yep as Allsnow said the other day, most of the activity will be to the west until late sunday. There will be some isolated pop ups around our area, so there's a slight chance we'll see something today. Hopefully the whole area will get a good soaking tomorrow night.
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All the rain we've gotten since late June really rejuvenated the lawns. I had never seen so much brown grass so early in the season in May and most lawns seemed burned out in June. I didn't think we would get back to regular lawn cutting, but it's amazing how quickly it's growing now.
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You're right that it didn't feel oppressive today. The dewpoint got down to 64 here this afternoon. Not too bad. It didn't feel that bad exercising outside this afternoon.
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Yeah it seemed as if we were in the clear since the activity to the north fizzled out, but then that 1 tiny cell popped up and went right over us. Had to delay the start of our cookout until that downpour passed around 6pm. I ended up with 1.84" for the day. Very nice, and thankfully it cleared out as expected and was dry for all the fireworks. The 4th is the best holiday of the year.
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Yup that's a great point.
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Rain just about as heavy as I've ever seen it. 1.60" in a short period of time. Close lightning strikes and 40mph wind gusts. Best storm of the season so far.
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Some close lightning strikes and strong wind as well. Very nice storm.
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Incredibly heavy. You can barely see outside.
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After several downpours missed, this last one is hitting my area thankfully. It's finally pouring here. Extremely heavy rain and some wind too.
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It only sprinkled here. Hoping I don't end up going through the whole holiday weekend without a downpour.
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Looks nice for your area. I think it's missing me by about 2 miles, lol.
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Yep that small cell in Union just extends down into the extreme northern part of Middlesex county. I'm right near the edge of it but so far no rain.
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Yeah I can hear the thunder to the south. Frustrating that they keep missing. There are a few more downpours to the northwest, so still some hope of getting something over the next couple hours.
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I had a 1 minute moderate shower here. Having a cookout later in the afternoon and fireworks tonight. The storm threat should be over by then, but I'm hoping to see a downpour in the next few hours. Only about a tenth of an inch of rain here so far for the whole weekend. Would be funny if I actually have to water the vegetable garden tomorrow after all the hype this weekend got for heavy rain.
