winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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Low temp of 5 here this morning. Gonna have 3 nights in a row in the single digits ... pretty impressive. Probably gonna finish January 4 to 5 degrees below normal for the month. An impressive cold winter month for a change. Nice that this snow is gonna stay on the ground all week.
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I measured 3 and half too. Nice event and I'm glad we got about what we were expecting. As you said, it's nice that this will be sticking around all week. This is a higher impact few inches than usual since there won't be any melting for several days. Not bad to be at almost 10 inches for the winter. Our first real winter in quite awhile with below average temps and near average snowfall. Hopefully we can keep this up and get to average snowfall of near 30 inches for the winter.
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It's really coming down here now. Should be a good couple hours. Looking good to get to our 3 to 4.
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The nice thing is it'll be on the ground for a long time with the very cold temps coming up. There won't be a bit of melting for days, so getting even just 3 inches is a bigger deal than it usually would be.
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Yeah it had a few off runs where it went too low with amounts. It got back to where it was before on the 17z run which was good to see. I still like 3 to 5 for our area, but it's probably 3 or 4 rather than 5 since we're losing some accumulation this afternoon due to temps.
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Everything looks on track to me. Still looks like a 3 to 5 inch snowfall for this area. I'll stick with the 4.5" prediction I made for my location yesterday.
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Good to see the Euro increase the precip amounts a little. Good chance we get 4 to 5 here. I'll go with a guess of 4.5" for my location.
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Yeah that was a reason why I slept easy as well and didn't wake up early. I would have woken up early today if I was worried, but I've been very confident that this is going to be an all snow event.
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Yeah it's a shame the RGEM gave so many people anxiety. When 1 model has a radically different opinion than every other model, obviously it's extremely likely that it's wrong. Horrible performance by the RGEM. I hope it's embarrassed.
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Haha. I was up late last night looking at the Euro, so I decided to sleep late today. Definitely will get up much earlier tomorrow.
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Just woke up late on a Saturday and am catching up on the models. Great to see the RGEM finally coming to its senses and correcting! NAM models nice and cold. I continue to like a 3 to 5 inch forecast for my area.
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Hilarious.
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Not just the NAM. Euro and UKMET have been showing this type of solution too. Still a ways to go though ... obviously nothing is for sure.
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NAM 3km nice and cold with a nice 3 to 4 inch snowfall. Euro and UKMET have been locked in with this type of solution too. I think this outcome is most likely. GFS is probably overdone and RGEM is off its rocker.
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Good to see the NAM coming in colder. Hopefully RGEM will start correcting tonight.
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So much evidence that the RGEM is way overdone. Hopefully it will start correcting on the 18z run.
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Focus on the UKMET run that just came out, lol. Pretty much perfect for snow for the entire area. Hopefully Euro will continue to look good in an hour as well.
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Yes so you agree with the point that I made. The NAM being so flat could be a sign that the RGEM is over amped.
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True. It's likely that both the RGEM and NAM will be embarrassed.
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Yeah a middle ground solution still seems most likely, which would be good for our area.
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Haha. Yeah, either one. Either the NAM or RGEM is gonna be embarrassed here.
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But that's my point. The fact that the historically over amped NAM isn't over amped right now could be a sign that the RGEM is way off and rain isn't as much of a concern.
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I would think the NAM being so much less amped is a good sign that the RGEM is off with being so amped, so to me that's good news.
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He lives on Long Island where an event like this is more borderline, so there's reason to be cautious.
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Yeah that's true. That's the best thing to do, but I don't see a problem with posting Kuchera maps since they help at least somewhat. For many of our events they've been closer to reality when they've showed very good or very poor snow ratios.
