winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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It will likely go to rain. RGEM only goes out to hour 84. At that point it's showing sleet, but it would likely change to rain shortly after that.
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That was some shoveling job. The inch and a half felt like 6 inches, and I had to chop to get under a lot of it. And the stuff from the plows up against the curb was extremely heavy. I got soaked with sweat just like I had gone for a run, lol. I enjoyed the work though.
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1.5" here. A lot of that accumulation is sleet. Wish we got more snow, but I gladly take it. Glad I will be able to shovel in the morning.
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Had some freezing rain mix in when the precip lightened up. Now back to heavy sleet.
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We haven't had any freezing rain yet here. VERY heavy sleet right now. 1 inch on the ground out there. More sleet than snow. A significant impact when you get this much sleet accumulation.
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Heavy snow now with a little sleet mixed in.
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I hope we get a bigger event at some point so we can end up at near average snowfall, but if that doesn't happen it at least appears we'll be able to nickel and dime our way to 20 inches. Below average but not terrible.
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I think it's too early to call it over. I don't think it will trend far enough north to give us a big snowstorm, but a few inches is certainly possible.
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Snow-sleet mix here. A solid coating out there.
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This morning you said the pattern favors a north trend. Hopefully this RGEM run is a good sign.
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HRRR definitely got better on the 21z run. What a difference between HRRR and NAM. Hopefully we can pull off a little thump, but who knows what's gonna happen. Talk about a difficult forecast.
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Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if we get just a half inch to inch of snow and then a good amount of sleet.
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Of course we have to wait and see if NAM wins. No other model is showing anything like what the 18z NAM is showing, but I think you have to lean towards it.
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We really need Tuesday to work out with Thursday looking like mostly rain. Hopefully we can get a north trend for Tuesday. We're on the edge right now which is close enough 3 days out.
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It definitely will. Even if this event ends up no snow and mostly sleet, it would be well over a half inch of sleet.
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I can't imagine how bad it is at the store this afternoon with everyone shopping before the storm and Super Bowl. I'm so glad I decided to go yesterday instead.
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Today's CMC does get a couple inches of snow up to our area late Tuesday. GFS is north compared to yesterday too. We're definitely still in the game with plenty of time for this to trend north. Don't think it will be a big storm but we can at least get it to trend far enough north to get a few inches. It would be nice to get an all snow event after these mix storms.
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I'll gladly take 2" of sleet over a rainstorm, that's for sure. We get to shovel and see frozen precip on the ground for awhile.
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I usually go to the supermarket on Saturday, but I moved it up to yesterday because I didn't want to deal with the insane crowds today as everyone shops in a panic before the winter storm. LOL. Yesterday it was nice and quiet at ShopRite. Anyway it's crazy that just hours before this storm we have the HRRR showing a big thump of snow for our area while the NAM is almost no snow with a lot of sleet. I think Don Sutherland has done a good job explaining that a middle ground scenario is most likely, but I'm still nervous that the NAM could be right about the lack of a thump and the warm layer. It scored the big victory on the last event. Man it would be nice for the HRRR to finally be right after having a rough winter, but I doubt that will happen. Only a slight chance.
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Tonight's Euro brushes us with a little snow Tuesday. Light accumulations. More significant for southern NJ. Close enough that it's still something to keep an eye on. Hopefully we can get it to trend back north, but I know for days SnowGoose has been concerned about a potential miss to the south. Would be frustrating after these mix storms to have an all snow event miss to the south. Hopefully that won't happen. I know GFS tonight was bad, but UKMET has our area on the edge of the significant snow. Still uncertain with plenty of time.
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Ukie is showing a nice thump for late tomorrow. As usual it's a very close call. Could go either way as far as getting several inches of snow or more mixing.
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This obviously isn't going to work. This banter threat is just going to turn into another OT. Most people here don't even look at that toxic OT because they don't want to see people fighting in a nasty way with each other over politics. Sad if we're going to have that in the NYC forum now. I hope Rjay and BxEngine will change their minds. Of course there is the option of not even looking at this banter thread anymore. I think many will do that, but it's a shame for people that would like to participate with weather banter or banter on lighter subjects.
