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About NJwx85

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  • Location:
    Mahwah, NJ

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  1. Same, just traveled from Yonkers to home, there was an accident on the Rockland bound bridge. About 3.5” here so far.
  2. The 12z GFS has a general 2-4" with pockets of 4-6" and agrees with the 12z RGEM. The 2"+ line should go back to the Poconos.
  3. Everything is on schedule. If you don’t know what you’re talking about, you probably shouldn’t post as it only causes confusion. I fully expect moderate to locally heavy snow to overspread most of the area by early afternoon and persist well into the evening. Enjoy your 2-4, 3-5, 4-6” from West to East.
  4. The snow is developing nicely now over Western NJ and Eastern PA.
  5. The trolling needs to stop. I made a very detailed post yesterday about how the heavier snow would develop on the nose of the increasing 500mb jet and you can now see that happening with the banding that's developing near Lancaster. Once that stronger lift moves in, it should easily overcome whatever dry air is in place. Again, I expected very little before 11AM. The nose of the strong dynamics is only now in Northern VA.
  6. 12z NAM high res totals, Use a 12:1 ratio with this event. That gives mostly everyone between 3 and 6 inches.
  7. We need to wait until the jet increases later this morning, then snow will break out area wide. See my post from yesterday.
  8. You can clearly see the game changer on the 12z Euro as the jet intensifies on Saturday afternoon thanks to the injection of energy from the Northern shortwave, as opposed to the solution from Wednesday which showed weakening dynamics aloft. I know that this image is difficult to see, but watch how that 500mb jet just explodes, the heavy snow will develop right on the nose of those strong winds aloft. After the nose of the strong jet passess overhead, snow should tapper quickly as the strongest dynamics move into New England and the dry air on the backside takes over. The biggest thump should occur between 15 and 21z or between 10AM and 4PM from South to North.
  9. While I agree, as I just mentioned, they can expand the advisories North and West later tonight if needed.
  10. FWIW Sussex and Warren Counties were left out of the advisory too. You have to remember that it's not just about the nominal forecast but it's with regards to max potential and confidence that the NWS has with regards to reaching the max potential. In the end, it's up to the discretion of that particular forecaster. In this case, it's clear that Upton collaborated with Mt. Holly with regards to the Western extend of the advisory and forecasters can still expand the extent of the advisory area later tonight if warranted.
  11. The 17z HRRR has over 5" in Cape May by 11z tomorrow morning. I wouldn't expect much to be falling around here before 10-11AM and it should remain very light until afternoon.
  12. The majority of Orange County should stay below the threshold minimum for an advisory. This could be the type of setup where Tuxedo, which is technically Orange County receives 5-6" and Port Jervis receives barely over an inch. They are right on the edge of the cutoff.
  13. The 4"+ mark on the Euro extends back to the DE River.
  14. I think temperatures hold right around the freezing mark in the city and perhaps 33-34 on the South shore of Suffolk. I think the far East end could see a little mixing, but it should be all snow or mostly snow for just about everyone which is pretty remarkable for December 9th.