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  1. Flash flood threat today
  2. That's still well over an inch in most places. I wouldn't call that dry, it's a global model.
  3. 18z RGEM close to NAM
  4. The HRRR has that convection in Central PA making it close to enough to the area tonight to clip Western areas.
  5. It goes along with that concept of a narrow band of strong convection. FWIW it has heavy early morning convection on Saturday which we always seem to over perform with.
  6. Looks like the 18z NAM is going to be another wet run.
  7. And then you have this...
  8. That presentation on the Euro is similar to what other models have been showing for days now. Looks like a narrow but heavy band of convection. Even the UKMET has it, just further North.
  9. He wasn't talking about severe. We were talking about storms. You're giving him far too much credit. Bergen and Westchester got dumped on today. The severe risk was marginal.
  10. Maybe where you live. There was plenty of activity. Convevtion is always hit or miss.
  11. Been that way for years. South Jersey does extremely well too. It's really flat down there and when the flow is offshore like it is today you can get some Plains esque activity.
  12. Nah, the stronger instability and shear have been down there all day.
  13. Definitely some wind damage possible with this cell.