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About NJwx85

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    Mahwah, NJ

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  1. Great setup for a slow moving 2-3 foot snowstorm today. Classic Miller B with strong blocking.
  2. Just enough blocking from the high to the North to drain dry air down into PA and Western NJ, Upstate NY. You can clearly see where the moisture cutoff line is and where the rain shield ends.
  3. Cutoff systems like this almost always end up further West than forecast because of the backing flow.
  4. About as raw of a day as you will see around here for early/mid-October. Currently 53.6 degrees with moderate to occasionally heavy rain. Only about a quarter of an inch in the bucket so far but its come in spurts, almost like squalls or bands. We've also been consistently gusting in the 20-25 MPH range.
  5. I don't think the Pats cover the spread. Going to be a lot of short passes and screens. I would bet on a 17-6 type game.
  6. Pouring here for the last hour or so. FYI - For anyone betting on the Giants/Pats game Thursday night. Forecast is for 1-2" of rain and winds gusting up to 40 MPH during the game. Should make for an interesting game.
  7. Headed for Boston on Friday, but the worst looks to be over by then. Hoping it clears out for the weekend up there. Anyone know if the Euro keeps Boston in the pesky Northerly/Wet flow on Saturday like the GGEM shows?
  8. With the exception of Dorian and Lorenzo, every other storm this season has struggled. I think it has more to do with the strength of the vort as it came off of Africa and favorable UL conditions in the Eastern Atlantic as opposed to some anomalously high SST in that area. It’s not like every wave coming off of Africa in that spot has developed, in fact it’ll likely be the only one this year.
  9. Was hoping this thing would take a sharper right turn and be a possible threat to Africa, just because I can’t recall such anomalous track/intensity before. As is, watch out Ireland.
  10. If that is the case, I hope they plan to head out there this evening. Obviously Lorenzo is not a threat to anything but shipping interests, but from a meteorological perspective, Lorenzo is fascinating. It could very well end up surprisingly deep/intense based on recent satellite trends. It would be awesome to sample this hurricane near peak intensity. Some guidance suggests that it could be a threat to NW Europe.
  11. The Euro still has quick development of another Cape Verde system towards the end of next week. This time around the ridging looks to be a bit stronger, at least until the system reaches the Central MDR.
  12. Looks like recon had a training mission down to Barbados today. Wonder if it was a re-positioning to try and get some data from Lorenzo?
  13. Recon is on a SW to NE pass right now and should get a good sampling of the possible secondary center shortly.
  14. I think the recon data suggests that the center is attempting to relocate under the deep convection.