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About NJwx85

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    Mahwah, NJ

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  1. NJwx85

    March, 2019

    The most disappointing aspect of this Winter for me was a general lack of big threats to track. Can’t recall a single time where any model was showing the classic Miller A which has become somewhat of a mainstay over the last decade plus.
  2. Unofficial measurements of 9-10” here of very heavy and wet snow. Storm overperformed, at least out this way thanks to some pretty intense early morning banding as was alluded to yesterday by myself and some of the others. What also helped is that we had absolutely zero mixing here. Started as snow around 5:30 pm and things really picked up after 7:00.
  3. NJwx85

    March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

    Not to beat a dead horse but I’m not sure how you wouldn’t include Monmouth when Sandy Hook is right across the harbor from Staten Island and Brooklyn. You can literally see the Verrazano bridge from there.
  4. NJwx85

    March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

    All of Northern and most of Central NJ are part of the NYC metro. Also included is far NE PA and NY state going back to Ulster and Sullivan Counties.
  5. NJwx85

    March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

    Also based on 3k 06z NAM 700mb there could be an initial band that passes through near the onset followed by the secondary band or main show from about 01z to 05z.
  6. NJwx85

    March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

    The GFS has been too far Southeast with the track for a few days. The NAM develops a band just to our SW around 23z and that tracks NE of the area by 06z which is the period that most of the snow will fall. Other hours will be mostly light or no precipitation.
  7. NJwx85

    March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

    Yeah best banding signatures around 02-04z along 95 and just NW could put somebody higher than currently forecasted ceiling of ~8”.
  8. NJwx85

    March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

    Weenie snow maps are going to be way off with this one. The less mixing, the better you will do, however this is a very fast moving storm. In around late afternoon/early evening and out before sunrise or around then.
  9. NJwx85

    March 3rd-4th Shellacking threat

    4-6” in the city, 3-5” in immediate SE burbs, 2-4” South and East of there. 5-8” for interior NNJ and Lower Hudson Valley except 4-6” in Westchester. 3-6” in far NW sections.
  10. NJwx85

    OBS thread March 1, 2019

    Woke up to a surprise 2" this morning.
  11. Tomorrow officially marks the unofficial end to significant accumulating snows on the coastal plain. Still about two weeks to go for interior sections. This is based on long term climo with considerations for anomalies such as what occurred in March 2918.
  12. NJwx85

    OBS thread Feb 20-21, 2019

    The HRRR has quite the extended period of sleet and freezing rain over much of the area starting around 23-00z. Could be the worst icing out of the last three events.
  13. NJwx85

    OBS thread Feb 20-21, 2019

    Overcast - 26.6 degrees. Ramsey, NJ.
  14. NJwx85

    February 20 - 21 Winter Storm Threat

    I think if anyone in this sub-forum gets over 4” it’s going to be in places like Morristown, Somerset, Hackettstown, etc. Basically Warren, Morris, Sussex and Western Passaic. I think most of NY is too far North and East.