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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. Yes we're all aware of the strong LLJ but that CAD signature over the Hudson Valley is no joke. Perhaps 15 miles inland was a little bullish, but I think a lot of areas North of 287 and west of the GSP have a better chance of just drying up due to the proximity of the mid level lows rather than flip to rain. NYC South and East is a completely different ballgame unless things change drastically.
  2. I'm not saying that the warm air and eventual dry slot don't win out in the end but you're going to have several hours of snow inland before this happens. Look at those dew points over SNE on Sunday. Yes it's departing but you have a solid cold, dry airmass in place ahead of the storm.
  3. I wonder how much of the low level warming would be mitigated by strong dynamics in this setup. Either way by the time it gets warm enough for rain most of the precip has already fallen unless you're on the immediate coast.
  4. Quick dry slot this run. About 12 hours of front end snow followed by dry slot as the low jumps from near DC to the benchmark. It almost looks like a late developing miller B. Need the mid level centers to pass offshore to have a chance at the back end CCB.
  5. Thanks. Family and work occupy most of my time these days but it's still fun to come on here when something significant is on the table. The recent trends from the GFS has been promising. Don't see anyone around here getting into double digit snowfall but this could easily be the biggest event so far this season for many.
  6. The fact that the 18z NAM has the low centered over DC at hr 84 is a good sign. It's normally way overamped at that range. I would be worried if it showed the low near Pittsburg but this has last minute shift Southeast written all over it. Quick thump over to a mix/rain along the immediate coast then dry slot. Further inland, longer thump and then eventual mixing/dry slot. This is an old fashioned North and West of 287 snowstorm, but still likely at least a solid 6 hour front end thump for the city.
  7. The initial dry slot over the immediate coast is because the parent low is tucked right into the coast near NY harbor. The surface low that will be brining the wind is still located well Southeast of the benchmark.
  8. The HRRR doesn't have much of an inversion but the storm will occlude tonight as it rotates West and slowly weakens. It will still pack quite a punch but it will not be as intense the further West it gets.
  9. West of the Hudson 20-30MPH with a few gusts over 40MPH. Hudson river to the Suffolk County line 30-40MPH with a few gusts over 50MPH. Highest potential is Suffolk, especially the North shore for sustained over 40MPH with gusts 60+.
  10. Last night was pretty crazy in Southern Rockland. About 3 hours of heavy rain with embedded downpours and lots of thunder and lightning. Then it tapered off around 11pm for a couple of hours before coming back in around 1:30. Wind has started to pick up here and rain is squally. Storm definitely has that tropical feel but we'll have to see where that pivot occurs. Some models push the dry slot up into the Hudson Valley for a time while others keep most of the interior raining until late tonight. 30-40MPH winds with higher gusts will be sufficient to knock down trees given soil saturation. High chance of power outages for the North shore of LI, especially Suffolk. Low-Moderate chance elsewhere.
  11. The Wanaque reservoir is still over 100% capacity. Any heavy rain will cause immediate rises on already high rivers. That reservoir feeds the Passaic River system.
  12. One of the main problems is that people don't listen to warnings but the biggest problem is that a majority of the public doesn't even understand what they mean or the difference between a watch and a warning. A large percentage doesn't understand the difference between straight line wind damage and a tornado either.
  13. I still cannot get over the tornado in Gloucester County, NJ. Yes, we know that we can get tornadoes in NJ and NY but they are never this violent, this long tracked or as wide.
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