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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. Wilma seems like a decent analog although obviously it recurved further East than what Delta is going to do.
  2. zzzzz... Rain looks to be in and out in 6-8 hours. Most of the modeling has cut back to 1-2" with spotty 2"+ totals. I'm really hating that every event lately is in and out in under 8 hours. That doesn't bode well for Winter.
  3. Very low probability IMO that Teddy will be a big factor here. The trough South of Greenland this weekend should be enough to create a weakness in the ridge which allows the storm to escape. Obviously Bermuda will need to pay close attention. Somewhat bad timing so far during peak season with regards to East coast threats. Just remember that Sandy didn't occur until the very end of October so we have a long way to go.
  4. Speaking of home brews, the GFS has another system developing off the East coast. Could get another short lived named hybrid.
  5. Possible pinhole eye. Horrible in terms of RI possibilities. Good in terms of overall impact with a very small core. Maybe the eyewall will collapse before landfall like what happened to Rita.
  6. Had that recently with Laura as well.
  7. Happening so fast that I cannot even keep up lol The GFS really slows down development in the MDR as September comes to a close thanks to lots of Westerly shear but I'm sure we'll get at least two more named storms before things quiet down. The GEFS has a strong signal for development again near 30W towards the end of the month.
  8. Okay you do realize that Alpha wasn't named until October 22nd 2005 right? At this current pace we will be into the Greek alphabet before the end of September. Two more storms to go and that's it.
  9. What’s it going to take for people to stop posting the NAM for tropical?
  10. Looking better the last few hours on IR.
  11. Flash Flood Warning needed here immediately. Heaviest rain here in years.
  12. I think models are underdone on the NW side. Dewpoints are in the mid 70's and the cold front is still back by the Canadian border.
  13. Sun is out here. Look how much SBCAPE is in place. I expect it to be an active afternoon.
  14. It's probably also worth mentioning that the LLC was completely exposed this morning, but seems to be moving towards the recent burst of convection on latest IR loop.
  15. Posted in the main thread, but I am not overly convinced that the trough moving through Canada this weekend is going to be enough to weaken the ridge substantially. I could see a scenario where Paulette becomes trapped under the new ridge moving off the East coast. The PAR GFS has a funky scenario where the system gets trapped, moves South, then West and then eventually ends up in Northern Ireland as a powerful extratropical low.
  16. Is everyone convinced that the weak trough in Canada is going to be enough to weaken the ridge enough that it allows Paulette to escape? A bit of an outlier, but some GEFS members do take Paulette towards the coast.
  17. Decent amount of MUCAPE available for elevated convective activity. Cannot rule out some lightning.
  18. 06z HRDPS has another 3-5" for Western Suffolk County. Doesn't look like much rain will make it NW of the city. Areas NW of 287 could remain mostly dry or with spotty activity. With that being said, it's currently pouring here.
  19. I stand corrected. It was 11 years without a major hurricane strike and a seven year stretch with four landfalling hurricanes, if you include Sandy.
  20. We still have six weeks of prime season left.
  21. We recently went seven consecutive years without a US landfalling hurricane. How you can sit here and complain about this season is beyond absurd.