NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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The back edge in NW NJ looks impressive too.
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We’re going to get slammed by the convection over Passaic/Essex and then the stuff near Bridgewater. We’ll see if the real heavy stuff North of Philly makes it here.
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That area developing near Bridgewater looks impressive.
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Looks like severe threat is over North of 78.
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https://x.com/nynjpaweather/status/2082235823823425787?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw
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Bit of a lull here in Rockland County but radar looks juiced.
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3 tornado watches for parts of NJ in less than a week.
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The HRRR has not been very good with this event so far.
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Lights came on in the parking lot here.
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Getting drilled here in Ramsey. Very heavy rain and lightning.
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The rain will be widespread. The excessive totals will be localized.
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I had over 2” of rain yesterday in 45 minutes and my office 10 miles away had nothing. This is what happens in these events. It doesn’t mean the storm busted.
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You’re still going to get a good soaking, just not the amounts further West.
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This was never supposed to be a big deal East of the Hudson. Radar looks juiced for big rains in NJ and the Hudson Valley.
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This always looked to me like the max would be near Passaic/Bergen/Rockland Counties and I still feel that way.
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It’s the same people that call bust before an event even starts every time. They over analyze the radar instead of just letting things play out.
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Tornado Warning NW NJ.
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Some of the takes here are just profoundly ridiculous.
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Almost all of Central NJ is under a severe thunderstorm warning now. 60mph wind gusts.
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You do realize that line will intensify and build East right?
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Each model has a different jackpot area which is typical in convective setups. It’s very hard to pinpoint exact locations. Most of the rain today and tonight will fall in a relatively short period. There’s also quite a high risk of microbursts today, like what we saw yesterday, hence the watch. Could also see an isolated tornado.
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Looks like the moderate risk for excessive rainfall has been expanded.
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PWAT’s are 1.6 to 1.8” with ample moisture on a SW flow.
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This is a convective event so there will be winners and losers. I had 2.29” yesterday under that stationary storm in less than an hour. The storms today should be moving but there will be training. Someone is going to see a ridiculous total. Bullseye area looks to be along the I-287 corridor from Morristown up into the LHV.
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Believe it or not, the atmosphere is still fairly unstable West of the city. We shall see.
