NJwx85

Just gusted over 30mph here in Rockland lol

Okay 4” in Morristown isn’t a drencher?

What’s interesting to me is that this sounding shows the atmosphere is well mixed and there’s no inversion. Notice how the dew point and temperature are very close together near the surface. This means winds will have no trouble mixing down.

Please stop posting the 3k NAM unless it’s for entertainment only.

There won’t be 2-3” of rain over a large area with this. You will see pockets of twice that much and less then an inch 20 miles away.

The first part is incorrect. We’ve had a very wet end of Summer/early Fall and some of the rivers have already experienced flooding this month. 2-3” won’t have a huge impact but there’s going to be 4-6”+ wherever the strongest bands are.

Respectfully disagree. This is a warm seclusion. There’s no latent heat release. Furthermore the storm dissipates as it becomes vertically stacked on Sunday night. It might have some tropical characteristics but it won’t behave like a tropical cyclone should.

This will come in waves with a steadier rain likely Sunday.

The HRRR is similar with track but weaker. Both have a landfall near Monmouth County Sunday morning. By then it’s occluding.

Not sure if the RGEM has the same bias as the 3k NAM but it has one hell of a storm and it’s still raining well into Monday. Widespread 4-5” totals well into NJ and SE NY. The only good thing is that it’s weakening as it comes onshore.

The erratic NAM looks East of 6z.

There’s a major fear in the industry right now over cried wolf syndrome. There’s more cautioun now than ever before about issuing public warnings. When it happens it’s usually right before the event.

There’s locations on the Jersey shore that didn’t fully recover for years.

NWS is waiting on the 12z guidance. They still have time to enhance the warning package if things continue to escalate.

Consider yourself lucky. We had gusts to 100mph with Sandy and no power for 10 days. I was deployed to Seaside afterwards and the houses near the beach were pushed into each other like toys. Complete foundation failures. The main road in was blocked by a house that ended up there. And there were broken natural gas lines everywhere. It was truly a surreal experience. I’ll never forget being out the night of the storm when a 70 foot tree missed our truck by a few feet. That storm and riding out the mid Atlantic derecho in an RV in South Jersey were the scariest nights in my life.

The northern half of Sandy was void of rain but that’s where all the wind was.

This isn’t a run of the mill nor’easter and there’s more to weather around here than just snow.

Winds will be decently strong inland. If this was January there would be blizzard warnings.

The 12k NAM takes the center to basically Cape May by 06z Sunday.

The 18z 3k NAM has quite a bit of rain Friday night. Anyway most of the rain should fall on Sunday, not Saturday.

New run coming out now. This was 12z.

Can you do 10m winds?

The GFS would be low to moderate impact.

Not much change on the GFS through 24hrs.