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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    Not really, because the NAM beyond 48hrs is historically over amped. That's why it normally overblows totals and then gradually corrects inside of 36hrs.
  2. NJwx85
    It's a bit troublesome to me that the NAM is so weak with development. I think it's because it's quite a bit less amped up than even the 12z GFS. Usually in this type of setup the NAM would be showing a coastal hugger. It's completely on its own and the rest of the modeling has been fairly consistent so I'm largely tossing it, but it's still possible that things don't get going quickly enough.
  3. NJwx85
    We would be fine here in Rockland County even on the RGEM. Got to be able to smell the rain to get the heaviest snowfall.
  4. NJwx85
    12z RGEM is mostly snow, and heavy just to the NW of NYC proper. This is one of those storms where it could be ripping snow on the Palisades Parkway and raining in midtown. But even in this scenario, mostly everyone would flip to a burst of heavy snow at the end except for the far East end.
  5. NJwx85
    I like a quick 4-6" Sunday night into early Monday morning pretty much region wide. It could be slightly more than that if things play out perfectly.
  6. NJwx85
    Lots of potential here.
  7. NJwx85
    It's already noticeably more light out. If I leave work right at 5 I can almost make it home before total darkness. A sign of better things to come. Only another month or so of this garbage left. Only 35 days until pitchers and catchers.
  8. NJwx85
    This failed because of timing. It happens. There might be something good around the 20th before the pattern flips.
  9. NJwx85
    I'm showing 34 degrees at the surface at 18z Saturday near Newark.
  10. NJwx85
    What snow?
  11. NJwx85
    This is what happens when the system doesn't phase until it's past us. As you can see, the eventual coastal deepens quite dramatically offshore.
  12. NJwx85
    The storm saw the new congestion pricing and decided to take a hard right turn.
  13. NJwx85
    Yeah I thought the trough looked better initially but it actually ends up worse than the GFS.
  14. NJwx85
    It has the trough negatively tilted at hr 84, agree.
  15. NJwx85
    If you look at the last few runs of the GFS, the trend is for a more positively tilted trough and lower heights at the coast. My call right now is for nothing significant North of Toms River.
  16. NJwx85
    And to think some here were upset yesterday because the 18z GFS showed a coastal scraper.
  17. NJwx85
  18. NJwx85
    This is trending towards nothing up here and I'm fine with that. Have my son's birthday party on Saturday afternoon anyway. And no legit snowlover would be happy with a 1-3" event when the GFS was showing 20-30" yesterday.
  19. NJwx85
  20. NJwx85
    12z NAM looking better. Maybe it's the start of a trend. Today is probably the last day for significant changes.
  21. NJwx85
    Long range NAM but this would result in a suppressed solution.
  22. NJwx85
    Looks nothing like the Euro at H5.
  23. NJwx85
    You want the NAM to be showing a track into Albany at this range. If it’s not super amped beyond 60hrs that’s a tell.
  24. NJwx85
    No. In fact, the consensus was out to sea, didn't come back till Christmas Eve. It was a Christmas miracle. Of course, the models weren't nearly as good back then. That was one of my first memories from being on this board.
  25. NJwx85
    At hour 84, the GFS is more amped than 12z.
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