NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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Looks like this is the peak panel for Northern areas.
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It has very little North of I-78 in NJ.
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Yes I'm aware of where Toms River, NJ is. Models might not be done trending South.
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Big trend South from the 12z run.
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The GFS has trended more amplified over the past four runs while the NAM has trended flatter and is actually much flatter at 12z Friday as compared to the 12z GFS. Cannot remember the last time the NAM was flatter than the GFS 24 hours before a storm. Probably a red flag that the GFS is too wet.
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If you follow the last four runs of the NAM it shows the snow trending North and East with each consecutive run. That's pretty typical of inverted troughs. You never want to be in the bullseye more than 24 hours out.
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Not sure I agree with this. Inverted troughs usually end up trending further Northeast as the event comes closer. My guess is Eastern Long Island and Southeast New England for the win.
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1.5” here plus a quarter inch of ice. Really lousy storm and difficult to shovel.
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When I went through at 8am the PIP was in better shape than I-87.
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Radar is really filling in now. Kudos to @Dark Star who called this at 7am.
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https://x.com/nycstormchaser/status/1747224678505046176?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw
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Inland areas could get 4"+ if that QPF verified thanks to higher than normal ratios.
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This feels like one of those February’s where we crack 70 degrees and it snows a week later.
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We’re a month away from pitchers and catchers. Pattern breaks down after the 20th storm. Good riddens.
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Best chances for big storms are on the leading edge of cold, like early next week and then as it departs next weekend. After that get out the shorts and BBQ’s.
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You want the NAM to be amped up beyond 36 hours. If it showed snow at the immediate coast right now this threat would be 100% dead instead of 75% dead.
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To be fair, the GFS does try and do some whacky elongated last minute phase.
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If we do end up missing out on this one it doesn't mean there won't be another one following close behind it. I recall that a few days before the Boxing Day blizzard we narrowly missed getting slammed by a miller A. Sometimes these help to reinforce the pattern. It will be cold for part of next week here but nothing like the Plains.
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The 18z NAM was pretty flat at 84 hours. It's impossible to know what would have happened since I'm pretty sure the DGEX doesn't exist anymore. Anyway, typically in these situations you want to see the long range NAM super amped up because of its known bias for being over amplified with respect to coastal storms.
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I don't know how you could call that a large move towards the GFS. It was a move towards the old GFS but still just a glancing blow. Lets see what 00z has to say.
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The Euro has been consistently slower with the trough axis dropping down from the upper Plains. Until this timing issue is fully resolved there will be some uncertainty. The hope is that it is still poorly sampled as @Typhoon Tip alluded too earlier.
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As I have been saying all along, it comes down to whether or not the Southern vort is timed well with the incoming trough. If it's too fast like the 12z ECMWF and now 18z GFS shows, the trough will kick it out. If it's too slow it could phase early and you could get a super amplified trough and rain at the coast. Has to be timed perfectly. Still time for this one but there is no denying that this was a major nod towards the Euro.
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Moving ahead to day four. Looks like the GFS is caving to the Euro. The Southern vort is too far out ahead of the trough axis since it's slower and your surface low here is way offshore.
