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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    The NAM is improved. Mix line stalls South of the city.
  2. NJwx85
    In events like this, the warm nose tends to push up the Jersey coast and then up the Hudson. So Westchester might mix while interior NJ and NY stay all snow. More concerning to me today is the potential dry slot Sunday night.
  3. NJwx85
    I think that is closer to 287 but we’ll see.
  4. NJwx85
    The piles of black and yellow snow in Brooklyn are going to look great next week.
  5. NJwx85
    Well I personally think the sleet is overdone except on the South shore of LI and the Jersey shore.
  6. NJwx85
    Yeah, but it will have been well forecasted.
  7. NJwx85
    There’s going to a be a lot of pancaking on Sunday afternoon as the mix line advances.
  8. NJwx85
    Yes, but the Euro used to be way ahead the rest of the pack so you could trust it more. I’m not arguing that model skill hasn’t improved, just that it’s harder to decipher what’s more correct at any given range, especially when the differences between the GFS and Euro are significant. This particular setup though is much easier to handle than a miller A that we might get next week.
  9. NJwx85
    None of the models are as good as they used to be. I’ve seen them all make wild jumps. However they have all converged for this storm and confidence is fairly high with a few nuances still to be worked out.
  10. NJwx85
    If you get 18” I’m getting 2’+ lol
  11. NJwx85
    I’m starting to think there will be a strip of 20”+ from about MMU to HPN. That’s where there should be maximum dynamics while staying all or mostly snow. But we still have 60+ hours to go so a lot can still change.
  12. NJwx85
    18z NAM is quite a bit faster with bringing in precip overnight.
  13. NJwx85
    Haven’t realized yet that they are smarter than 99% of us here and have more detailed data to look at plus a vast amount of experience?
  14. NJwx85
    12Z GFS is about as perfect as it gets for our area.
  15. NJwx85
    NAM at 00z Monday near NYC.
  16. NJwx85
    The top 5 analogs over the East at 96hrs according to the 00z GFS (CIPS) are: 2/18/21 12/25/02 12/15/13 2/11/86 12/17/20 3/4/2001 is number 6 LOL
  17. NJwx85
    I like my spot for this one in Rockland County. I also have a hard time believing the sleet mixes into NYC for a significant amount or time.
  18. NJwx85
    Bernie Rayno shared the Euro soundings tonight on his video feed. There’s briefly a narrow warm tounge around 700mb in NYC. It gets to maybe +1C for 6 hours late Sunday night.
  19. NJwx85
    The 00z ICON is 12-18” for most with lollies 20”+. And it lingers snow most of Monday.
  20. NJwx85
    If you thought Metfan was the biggest weenie on here, think again.
  21. NJwx85
    My top 3 biggest heartbreaks are: 2/8/13 2/5/10 March 2001 Biggest Miracle: 12/26/10 Biggest storm missed while alive: PD2 - was in FL at Daytona 500.
  22. NJwx85
    I remember it well. 2 days off school for an inch of slop.
  23. NJwx85
    Pivotal weather shows freezing rain but I have a hard time believing it with a 1035mb low over Quebec and a weak surface low off the VA Capes. Primary low dies over West Virginia.
  24. NJwx85
    This doesn’t look accurate to me. I think it’s a crappy output from a crappy model. You have 2m temps in the teens in VA and Eastern PA where it’s showing rain.
  25. NJwx85
    All the models have it down there. The key is it ejecting Saturday morning. It’s interesting that one piece of this storm will bring rain to Southern CA on Friday.
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