NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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With more to come on Sunday
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The 18z NAM was actually about 50 miles West of the 12z run for the landfall position. SC/NC border vs Central NC.
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Still some really wet members in there.
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12z GEFS shifted South and East.
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The storm makes landfall in North Carolina on the 12z GFS as a mid-high end tropical storm.
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It's the long range NAM and the same holds true now as it does during Winter with its accuracy. But it does at least show the storm tracking well inland and so that adds support for the Western models. The ECMWF is still an Eastern outlier.
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Most of the models have the actual low tracking nearby on Sunday so rain would eventually come back in at some point.
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The 12z NAM is looking dry for Saturday night. Looks like an extended break before the actual low tracks nearby on Sunday.
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So is the 12z GFS
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If some of this can mix down in convection we could see tropical storm force winds, especially at the coast. Soundings don't show an inversion.
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What a storm on the GFS. Doesn't wrap up until late afternoon on Sunday.
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And with more to come. Still raining on Sunday morning.
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12z GFS has a major storm.
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The eye has constricted some over the last few hours and outflow has improved. Looks like the dry air/shear issues are over and it's intensifying.
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Storms where everyone wins happen once every 10 years apart or more.
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It's all a hypothetical at this point. And I would rather spend Winter dealing with storms tracking into PA than storms tracking near Cape Cod.
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If it was January you would have a much stronger high to the North and the track would likely be up the coast instead of into the coast.
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Hoping to get a track like this during Winter. 12z GFS brings a lot of moisture in on Saturday afternoon/evening with a strong Southerly fetch. Would be all rain for the coast but a very good track for the interior.
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Biggest impacts will be in a low populated area of down east Maine. Another Atlantic Hurricane that never really reached full potential. Once the shear picked up about 8 days ago it was never really able to get going again.
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With zero chance of a US impact. The end of the 00z Euro does have another MDR storm which would be in a more favorable spot to make it further West.
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Based on the latest guidance it looks like the stronger winds will stay just offshore the New England coast but it wouldn't take much of a last minute shift to change that.
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If anything the transition will spread out impacts even further. You will see tropical storm force winds and hurricane force gusts hundreds of miles away from the center.
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This is the best that the IR presentation has looked in days. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=13L&product=ir
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Yup, 12z Euro is East. Looks like the GFS and hurricane models now.
