NJwx85
-
Posts
15,544 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by NJwx85
-
12z GEFS shifted West. Even have a cluster hitting Florida.
-
The trough is much shallower compared to yesterdays 12Z GFS which dug much further South. The system gets close but is never really captured.
-
By 144hrs it's in nearly the same position as 06z.
-
Peak intensity in about 5-6 days at 915mb and 145kts. Landfall in about 13 days near OBX as a cat 3. Storm accelerates ENE and is eventually absorbed by the trough.
-
This is probably already a hurricane. Just don't have recon to confirm so still going off satellite estimates.
-
https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1699233171601023038?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw
-
We now have TS Lee.
-
12z GFS was very similar.
-
You would probably get tropical storm force winds all the way back to NYC with that type of track. Cape Cod would see hurricane force gusts.
-
Interaction/enhancement from the trough. Wind field expands and the storm only weakens slightly.
-
Looks like a direct impact on SNE coming around day 11. This run is a day slower than most of the recent GFS runs.
-
12z GFS will be West of the 06z run.
-
The trough axis coming through the lakes is quite a bit further West compared to 00z at 168hrs.
-
Latest radar scans clearly show a well definied eye has emerged. Here in Orange County things look to be trending towards low impact. Tornado watch is just to our West. No rain here since intense squall 4 hours ago.
-
Just got hit with an outer band here. Poured for 5 miniutes and gusted to about 30mph. Location : Disney
-
First SVR warning of the day here, just SW in Osceola County. Saw some good structure
-
I’m down in Orlando for this one. We were supposed to fly back tomorrow morning but we moved it to Friday as a precaution. Only expecting some outer bands here but there’s at least a marginal tornado threat.
-
The back edge of the rain shield is close to clearing the coast.
-
So used to saying Atlantic with tropical, my bad.
-
Looks like the enhancement from the coast along with the moisture feed off the Pacific has set up a bit further West then thought. Radar looking like quite a drenching even for LA.
-
Huh, I’m usually the one that overhypes everything. I think it’s going to be highly impactful but I think a lot of people on the coast are going to say, “what storm?”
-
The core is obviously gone and the radar doesn’t look overly impressive over Baja. I’m wondering if the forecast is overdone outside of areas with local enhancements from terrain/elevation.
-
IR presentation has improved significantly in the past two hours. Waiting for confirmation but looks like ERC is complete.
-
IR loop shows the eye constricting significantly over the last few hours.
-
Don't they see significant rains during monsoon season on a regular basis?
