NJwx85
-
Posts
19,658 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by NJwx85
-
Yes. I don’t have 3” lol. More like half that.
-
Apparently you don’t know geography lol
-
Everyone needs to calm down. The radar should fill in and persist until 08-10z. The 00z HRRR has another 4-6” for most.
-
Massively underperforming here near the Palisades/87 interchange in Rockland.
-
Already about a half inch down here in Rockland County. Temp is 22.
-
Stop looking at the f*cking NAM.
-
There’s often subsidence on either side of an intense band. The models show this. It doesn’t mean other areas can’t do well but the 8”+ zone is probably less than 50 miles wide.
-
If I had to pick a jackpot zone, it would be a line from SWF to HPN to ISP. There could be a very sharp cutoff on both sides of that.
-
Because the cold is strong and really far South. You can see the CAD signature well looking at the isobars. We needed it or this would have been rain to Albany. It’s a give and take. Shortwave was well timed too.
-
Another issue is that the airmass is really dry. We’re going to need to see some good dynamics to overcome it.
-
These types of events are more typical of Chicago and the plains than us. That’s why they are so much more prone to ice storms than we are. PA might get significant ice.
-
The majority of the snow will fall in a 2-4 hour window. That’s always been the case. Light snow should persist in some areas until around sunrise if the inverted trough sets up.
-
We do have a few posters here that are NWS mets.
-
Final Call Central Park 5-8” LGA 3-6” JFK 3-6” HPN 6-9” EWR 5-8” MMU 3-6” SWF 6-10” ISP 6-8”
-
I hope we get 3” of sleet.
-
There’s going to be a band of 1-2” rates but it will move through quickly. I think the models showing 8”+ are mostly overdone but there could definitely be a narrow corridor where everything is maximized in terms of lift and a cold enough column. If I had to pick a spot it would be just North of the city.
-
The GFS soundings look great for all snow for just about everyone. My biggest concern is how much snow growth there will be. This is primarily an overrunning event. Just because it’s cold doesn’t mean you’re going to get great ratios. It helps but that’s just one piece of the puzzle. There should be a 3-6 hour period where most of the snow falls. I would be cautious with forecasting more than 4-6” for most.
-
WWA here from 4am to 4pm. Expecting 2-3” here, a smidge less than the last storm where I had almost 5”. This is proving to be one of my snowiest Decembers in recent history. I hope we can get a KU out of this pattern before it snaps. January is looking like a torch for most of the country.
-
What about for SE PA?
-
What did the 12z Euro show for Friday?
-
The 3” would be up near Yorktown Heights with less than an inch for Yonkers. Westchester is a tale of two worlds. The dividing line is often near Hastings on 87.
-
I could see a last minute cold tick that would bring accumulating snows to the coastal interior (West of the PIP and North of Rt 80) but as of now I think it’s mostly confined to the higher elevations of NW NJ and areas North and West of the 287/17/87 junction near Sloatsburg.
-
Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall
NJwx85 replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Eye is clearing out again and -80c tops wrapping around the Southern half of the CDO. Guess my hallowed out core post was off base lol. -
Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall
NJwx85 replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters
It does look like there is an attempt at building a core. The “eye” is warming. -
Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall
NJwx85 replied to GaWx's topic in Tropical Headquarters
I think the IR loop presentation now is more indicative of a truck tire (hollowed out core) than the emergence of an actual eyewall. We’ve seen this happen many times after significant land interaction and then reemergence. Hard to tell without recon or radar though.
