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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
  2. NJwx85
    We need something to breakup the pattern. With a few exceptions this year it's been mostly cutter central with no blocking.
  3. NJwx85
    The trough is actually quite amplified but the flow is too progressive. Really could have used some ridging over Greenland. The lack of blocking is a major issue.
  4. NJwx85
    Miller A’s are exceedingly difficult to track this far out. Still think is our best chance YTD for a big time KU.
  5. NJwx85
    I like the threat for next weekend. Haven’t been watching that closely but the ingredients are there for a big one.
  6. NJwx85
    I’m going with 2-4” for my neck of the woods which is basically the 287 corridor. 1-3” for 95 looks reasonable with a trace for the city and areas further East. Once you get up by I-84 and into the Binghamton and Albany CWA’s I think you’re in the 6-10” range.
  7. NJwx85
    Thank you! We have a Son. His name is Michael and he was two weeks old yesterday. I can’t believe how much he’s changed already.
  8. NJwx85
    Hate to say it but this looks like more sleet than snow in places that stay cold at the surface. I expect the coast to quickly changeover after 1-3 hours of snow to start.
  9. NJwx85
    Sorry guys haven’t been around much. My Wife and I welcomed our first child on New Years Eve.
  10. NJwx85
    Only one I really remember is 2002 and I'm not even sure if NYC proper saw that much snow. Started off as heavy rain, then we had a thunderstorm with lots of lightning and it started hailing and then slowly changed over to snow. And for the record it was definitely hail and not sleet because sleet doesn't fall the size of marbles.
  11. NJwx85
    Still light freezing rain here. Current temp of 32 degrees.
  12. NJwx85
    They were never going to close JFK, especially at that hour with all of the flights arriving from Europe.
  13. NJwx85
    Had over 30" of snow here March of 2018. Last March was snowy as well but not on the same level.
  14. NJwx85
    Still freezing drizzle. Car bounced back between 29 and 30 while I was driving at lunch time. Roads and other treated surfaces are fine but my car still hasn't melted and most other surfaces are still encased in ice. Judging by radar, looks like we have at least another few hours of this to contend with.
  15. NJwx85
    Not that it's going to make a large difference one way or another but winds have flipped to out of the Northeast and temperatures have begun to cool again. Temperature sitting at 30 degrees with light freezing rain continuing. You can see the slight sag in the isobars to our N & NE indicative of some CAD on mesoanalysis. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#
  16. NJwx85
    You can blame the Northern stream for eroding heights over the Western Atlantic. Get a grip. It's December 17th. Consider yourself lucky that you've already seen flakes this year.
  17. NJwx85
    56 days until pitchers and catchers report. 62 days until Presidents Day which I mark as the unofficial end to the heart of Winter/Snow season. With that being said, the last two Winters have been very back loaded.
  18. NJwx85
    Surface temps busted by 2-3 degrees. Was expecting 20's overnight and instead we stayed right around 30-31. We warmed aloft quicker than I anticipated. Thought for sure we would have a solid few hours of moderate snow last night before any changeover. I have some elevation so I am actually closer to the mid-level warming if you think about it.
  19. NJwx85
    Short term model bust here. Usually things trend colder as the event is unfolding but the opposite occurred. I knew we were in trouble last night when things started off as a sleet/snow mix rather that just snow. Within an hour I was completely over to sleet. Ice accretion here was around 0.10" on normal surfaces and about 2-3 times that amount on cold surfaces such as cars and railings. Luckily we seem to have avoided a much bigger problem as temperatures were a couple of degrees warmer than forecasted.
  20. NJwx85
    Sleet here
  21. NJwx85
    Moderate snow here. Really coming down.
  22. NJwx85
    I think he meant that the ice would cause the power lines to fall, this causing his pipes to feeeze without heat. Either way a bit dramatic per the usual.
  23. NJwx85
    It's mostly dependent on rates, mitigated by temperatures. Thus the greater the rate of precip, the more the run off, but the colder the temperatures, the less impact rates have. I can picture the curve in my head. Of course greater precip intensity also increases friction which results in temperature increases. So if the rain comes in heavy it will help to raise temps.
  24. NJwx85
    The last decade or so was an anomaly, not the norm.
  25. NJwx85
    If you believe in warming global temperatures long term, that would likely result in more amplified patterns which would typically result in stronger systems tracking closer to the coast. Future major snow storms on Long Island might become dependent on strong blocking patterns.
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