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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    The 06z GFS wasn't a terrible look however the shortwave I have circled needs to go away. It's suppressing the heights to our East. If it not for that, it's a classic setup for a big storm.
  2. NJwx85
  3. NJwx85
    The storm doesn't really mature until it's mostly past this area. The CCB develops late, just in time for it to wallop Central and Northern New England. Even the 06z GFS has jumped ship for our area and now has the more suppressed solution. Someone in New Hampshire is going to get well over a foot of snow.
  4. NJwx85
    On a side note, this is my favorite type of storm. Overrunning well out ahead comes in Friday late afternoon. Then storm really cranks overnight into Saturday morning as low tracks from ACY to Cape Cod. Would be a perfect track for a crippling, long duration blizzard if the Northern piece was able to get out ahead a tad more. 12z GFS has 6"+ for Springfield and NW CT. We're not missing this by much.
  5. NJwx85
    It's been cold around here since the big thaw last weekend. Had a hard frost this morning. Ground certainly isn't frozen but with low sun angle and it being December it should accumulate away from the coast if it comes down even moderately. North shore of LI looks good too.
  6. NJwx85
    Typical windshield washer back and forth at this stage. 00z models tonight will be telling.
  7. NJwx85
    Nice deformation band signal on the 3k NAM. Temperatures for interior NJ and Southeast NY look to be in the mid-30's but the rest of the column is cool so we could see a changeover to a heavy wet snow inland on Saturday morning.
  8. NJwx85
    What a beast on the GFS. Over 3” of rain in many spots.
  9. NJwx85
    Wilma seems like a decent analog although obviously it recurved further East than what Delta is going to do.
  10. NJwx85
    Is everyone convinced that the weak trough in Canada is going to be enough to weaken the ridge enough that it allows Paulette to escape? A bit of an outlier, but some GEFS members do take Paulette towards the coast.
  11. NJwx85
    I stand corrected. It was 11 years without a major hurricane strike and a seven year stretch with four landfalling hurricanes, if you include Sandy.
  12. NJwx85
    We still have six weeks of prime season left.
  13. NJwx85
    We recently went seven consecutive years without a US landfalling hurricane. How you can sit here and complain about this season is beyond absurd.
  14. NJwx85
    You got a cat 4 landfall into SW Louisiana in August and you still think the season is meh. Sorry that Laura wasn't deadly enough for ya...
  15. NJwx85
    Better get used to NYC getting more hurricane threats than Miami.
  16. NJwx85
    I'm not convinced yet that the future Cape Verde hurricane is definitely going to be a recurve. for starters, it appears to be a significant threat to the islands in 7-10 days. The GFS then swings through a shallow trough around the 19th which supposedly weakens the ridge. Again, not sure I buy that, especially given the massive dome of high pressure moving through the Eastern US at the same time. Thereafter, it looks to be steered by the trough coming down from Canada, and who's to say that it doesn't get picked up rather than booted OTS? Sure, the odds favor OTS. But this year, almost every storm that has made it West of 60W has found a way to hit land.
  17. NJwx85
    It’s been on the ensembles for weeks.
  18. NJwx85
  19. NJwx85
    Honestly, who gives a damn what the seasonal ACE ends up being if most of the activity stays out to sea. I think the majority would agree that a category 2 hurricane making landfall in the US is a lot more interesting from a hobbyist standpoint than a category 4 hurricane re curving way out to sea.
  20. NJwx85
    While storm quality has lacked some, we’ve had very few fish storms. Almost everything that’s developed so far has hit land.
  21. NJwx85
    It looks pretty healthy to me.
  22. NJwx85
    The center was partially missed by the latest ASCAT pass, but from what we can see, it does appear to have a closed circulation on the Eastern side.
  23. NJwx85
    12Z PARA GEFS still really likes the idea of a system on either side of Florida around mid month.
  24. NJwx85
    Still early but at least for now, path looks similar to Felix.
  25. NJwx85
    It's there on the ensembles.
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