NJwx85

Looks like recon had a training mission down to Barbados today. Wonder if it was a re-positioning to try and get some data from Lorenzo?

Outflow is incredible right now. The only impingement that I see towards more strengthening is some dry air on the NW side as seen on the water vapor imagery.

The 00z Euro has a pretty deep trough digging in days 9-10 that would likely break down the ridge and pull the system North as it approaches 40W. Hopefully that trough is overdone. The 06z GFS looks similar for the same time period.

A lot of the reason why Lorenzo recurves so early is due to the trough interaction with Jerry. It's really a shame from a weather/hurricane enthusiast that this has a greater than 99% chance of recurving well before any land interaction. It's great news for the islands which would have really been under the gun with such a strong system that far East. interestingly enough, the Euro shows development of another wave coming off Africa in a few days with what appears to be more of a pronounced ridge in place over almost all of the Atlantic.

IR presentation looks great today. Probably already at TS strength or just a hair below right now. CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 2.4 /1010.6mb/ 34.0kt Current Intensity Analysis UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 9.0 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 23 SEP 2019 Time : 130000 UTC Lat : 10:51:31 N Lon : 23:05:53 W Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 2.4 2.7 3.1

99L is looking pretty juicy this morning. It's really far South in the MDR but NHC gave it 20/30% chance of development over the next 2/5 days. The 06z GFS actually has some development followed by an eventual landfall near the Venezuela, Guyana border. The Euro pretty much has this following Jerry, developing both this system and the one behind it into powerful hurricanes.

Active times ahead

We're probably going to get another TD by tonight. 8AM update gives 60% chance 48hrs, 90% chance within 5 days on the tropical wave out in the MDR. Models have it eventually following the weakness in the ridge left behind from Humberto but a lot can change. The 00z Euro takes the system very close to Barbuda this weekend.

Yes because both scenarios/setups are exactly the same.

Not quite on the same level

Most of the 12z tropical guidance shifted North with landfall near Jacksonville in about 72 hours. FWIW, the 06z GEFS were very unimpressed with a weak storm gradually making it into the Western Gulf.

Lots of wind and rain. It looks pretty fierce at 850mb. Need to see more panels between 216 and 240.

Day 8-9 on the Euro is not exactly in the same ballpark as day 16 on the Goofus.

Fun times ahead, maybe?

LOL at the 00z Euro

Don't currently have access.

Both the 12z GFS and the ECMWF show an organized TC in the Southern Bahamas in the Day 9-10 time frame. Obviously a lot can change, including land interaction, but the setup is pretty intriguing for the East coast and New England with a well timed, relatively deep trough moving through the lakes. If the TC arrives early or the front speeds up, it could punt the storm OTS like the GFS. The Euro verbatim looks like it would be somewhat of a phase, similar to Floyd.

Most of Abaco Island and Grand Bahama are already destroyed. The only downside is that it could stop some of the recovery effort, but the damage is already done.

Things will change dramatically over the next few days. But what an ominous track/look on the day 10 Euro for the East coast with that deep trough digging in.

Euro in the Southern Bahamas Day 9

It helps that the models aren't really developing the system until it reaches the islands and by then it's really far South and West for a recurve OTS.

The track is almost identical to Wilma until it gets past Florida. System would have quite the PRE as well.

The Euro keeps 94L weaker much longer, but still eventually develops the system North of the islands in about a week. The question from here is does the ridge over the Eastern US hold and push the steer the storm towards Florida or does the incoming trough pull it North at the last minute?

It's the peak of Hurricane season. It would be abnormal if we didn't at least have a threat to track right now lol.

12z GFS still develops 94L as the system approaches the lesser Antilles, very close to where Dorian formed. The track is then close to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.