NJwx85

The 18z RGEM is a tick less icy/snowy for the immediate coast. Still keeps areas North of I-80 mostly frozen or freezing.

The HRRR shows substantial precip arriving in the area from SW to NE between 11PM and Midnight. Some areas could see snow earlier and the earlier the snow comes in the more you will get. By sunrise NYC and most of the immediate coast should be just above freezing, except for the usual spots which tend to hang on a little longer. 20-25 miles NW of the city is a different ball game.

Cut those ice maps in half and then subtract about half of that for runoff, so still looking at a narrow but widespread area of 0.25"-0.50" ice accretion. The freezing layer is confined to below 925mb on the 18z 3k NAM soundings. Even places like interior Union County don't really get above freezing at the surface until 14z or later. Most of the interior never really gets to 32.

The NAM is 1-3 hours of snow on the front end followed by a quick switch to sleet and freezing rain. The surface freezing line never really makes it North of Rt 80.

Utter chaos last November West of the Hudson River when we had 6-8" of snow in a short period of time right at rush hour. Took many folks over four hours to get home and some never made it.

Severe weather down South is a good sign. System is cranked up and ready to go.

How does it look in the ZR department?

The main roads aren't an issue because most of them will be pre-treated. The worst problems occur when the weather is unexpected which this will not be. Secondary roads will be a mess though. Any areas which have overhead power lines are at risk for loosing power and many tree branches might fall down. I remember a bad ice storm up in Hewitt from about ten years ago where nobody on that side of Greenwood Lake had power for over a week.

I suspect the typical inland areas will be updated to Winter Storm Warnings later tonight for potential of 2-4" of sleet and up to 0.50" of freezing rain. The last time we had an ice storm warning here it was hoisted after the event was almost over the damage was already done.

Only at the surface

The 12z RGEM is really bad in the ice department for a lot of the area with temps in the 20's at the surface and warming aloft. Hope it ends up being more sleet.

Given current trends I decided to make an ice map. Anyone in the red or purple could locally see >0.50" but I think anything approaching that range is highly localized.

Don't really have time to make a map but here is my general thinking on the snow. Central Park 1-2" EWR 1-2" LGA T JFK T ISP 1-3" BDR 2-4" SWF 3-6" HPN 2-4" MMU 1-3"

Finished with 6" in Mahwah, NJ

The radar is slowly filling in. The HRRR showed a bit of a lull but things shouldn’t completely shut off for about another 7-8 hours.

About 5-6” OTG here and looks like more to come.

It should back build some. The latest HRRR has pretty consistent banding over your area until around 09z.

Biggest factors working against greater snowfall in NYC are the marginal temperatures and the fact that the best banding is probably going to be just to the West. That doesn't mean it's not going to snow there. Just don't think it adds up to all that much.

I assume you mean for coastal Queens and Kings County? Yes, don't expect much accumulation at all in those areas. I guess I could have put them in the 1-2" range but either way I think it's right around 1".

Final Forecast Based on Current model trends and current radar trend

Moderate snow in Ramsey the last hour. Roads are getting bad quickly. About 2" of new accumulation so far.

Yes it's going to eventually move East. Once the low fills and weakens it will begin moving East.

Disagree. This isn't your typical noreaster/coastal storm where the low is moving East or Northeast. The ULL is basically cut off. Think of this system in the same way you would a firehose of convection in the Spring/Summer from a cutoff low.

Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1106 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 ANZ471-021645- /O.CON.KPHI.MA.W.0198.000000T0000Z-191202T1645Z/ 1106 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 ...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM EST... For the following areas... Waters from Manasquan Inlet NJ to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 to 40 nm... At 1106 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing waterspouts was located 26 nm east of Garden State North Reef. The severe thunderstorm was nearly stationary. HAZARD...Waterspouts, wind gusts to 40 knots, and small hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. The severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly open waters. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Thunderstorms can produce sudden waterspouts. Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Seek safe harbor immediately.

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1043 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 NJZ007>010-012-015-021630- Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Warren-Mercer- 1043 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 ...AN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW IS AFFECTING HUNTERDON...SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS...SOUTHERN WARREN...MERCER...SOMERSET AND WESTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTIES... At 1040 AM EST, an area of heavier snow continues to slowly move across portions of Mercer County, western Middlesex County northward to Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris and into Warren counties. Snowfall rates up to an inch per hour will result in an increase in accumulations on untreated surfaces and also significantly reduce the visibility. Remember, bridges and overpasses tend to be colder and therefore be more slippery. Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be prepared that roads may become quickly snow covered during heavier bursts of snow. Slow down and allow extra time when traveling. Locations impacted include... Trenton, New Brunswick, Somerville, Somerset, East Brunswick, Bridgewater, South Brunswick, North Brunswick, Ewing, Dover, Middlesex, Princeton, Bound Brook, Manville, Hackettstown, Wharton, Washington, Rockaway, Jamesburg and Hightstown. This includes the following highways... Interstate 195 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 6. Interstate 287 in New Jersey between mile markers 8 and 33. Interstate 295 in New Jersey between mile markers 59 and 76. Interstate 78 in New Jersey between mile markers 8 and 39. Interstate 80 in New Jersey between mile markers 25 and 35. New Jersey Turnpike between exits 8A and 9.