NJwx85

Snow season for the coastal plain unofficially ends in 35 days. Not that it cannot snow after Presidents Day, but it becomes much harder after that point due to a variety of factors. It will be disappointing if we manage to escape another Winter without a KU, especially after a very cold and snowy December around here, but it is what it is. Wave interference was the killer on this weeks threat and that seems to be the trend of the last few years. Too much activity and not enough wave spacing. Everything that ejects from the Southern stream gets kicked out before it can phase.

If we can get some decent blocking the pattern is ripe for a big Miller B.

Good chance of some freezing drizzle and or light freezing rain tomorrow afternoon. 00z HRRR soundings show a classic ZR signature for parts of the interior.

I’ve been posting here for 15 years. My first big event was Boxing Day. Some here were in diapers then.

Most of that will miss us to the Northeast. The back edge for us is near the Poconos now. It’s over by 2am.

Heaviest snow of the storm right now.

Snowing here again after a lull.

That’s headed towards SNE lol. Our future precip is currently South of Ithica.

I’ve been like 70/30 snow vs sleet.

Yes. I don’t have 3” lol. More like half that.

Apparently you don’t know geography lol

Everyone needs to calm down. The radar should fill in and persist until 08-10z. The 00z HRRR has another 4-6” for most.

Massively underperforming here near the Palisades/87 interchange in Rockland.

Already about a half inch down here in Rockland County. Temp is 22.

Stop looking at the f*cking NAM.

There’s often subsidence on either side of an intense band. The models show this. It doesn’t mean other areas can’t do well but the 8”+ zone is probably less than 50 miles wide.

If I had to pick a jackpot zone, it would be a line from SWF to HPN to ISP. There could be a very sharp cutoff on both sides of that.

Because the cold is strong and really far South. You can see the CAD signature well looking at the isobars. We needed it or this would have been rain to Albany. It’s a give and take. Shortwave was well timed too.

Another issue is that the airmass is really dry. We’re going to need to see some good dynamics to overcome it.

These types of events are more typical of Chicago and the plains than us. That’s why they are so much more prone to ice storms than we are. PA might get significant ice.

The majority of the snow will fall in a 2-4 hour window. That’s always been the case. Light snow should persist in some areas until around sunrise if the inverted trough sets up.

We do have a few posters here that are NWS mets.

Final Call Central Park 5-8” LGA 3-6” JFK 3-6” HPN 6-9” EWR 5-8” MMU 3-6” SWF 6-10” ISP 6-8”

I hope we get 3” of sleet.

There’s going to be a band of 1-2” rates but it will move through quickly. I think the models showing 8”+ are mostly overdone but there could definitely be a narrow corridor where everything is maximized in terms of lift and a cold enough column. If I had to pick a spot it would be just North of the city.