NJwx85

Thanks

https://twitter.com/accurayno/status/1958159185348091929?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw No idea why this won’t embed. I changed from x to twitter.

Very visible eye now. It will probably be a major again today, which was forecasted.

But that’s exactly what you’d expect as it starts to feel the effects of the trough. It’s already showing signs of becoming extra tropical.

There’s a noticeable eye showing up on IR and there was another blow up of convection near the center. Yes, there is some dry air but I think the moat you’re seeing is mainly due to the expanding system. Erin’s outflow is now reaching into Southern Virginia on the NW side.

Erin is looking good again. I suspect we’ll see an eye sometime this evening.

The system is still really far South and there’s plenty of OHC to be had. If the shear relaxes enough there could be another period of steady intensification tonight. The fact that the core was destroyed might actually be better off because it was never the same after the first EWRC and was headed towards that hollowed out tire mess.

Big burst of convection over the center in the past hour. Lets see if it can wrap back around.

Wow, naked swirl alert. The center is closed to getting exposed. No model had this getting sheared apart this badly.

For now the Northward movement has slowed. It almost appears to be drifting West the last couple of hours. The GFS has been awful with this from the beginning.

IR presentation is improving again as deep convection is wrapping around the Western half.

It’s going through another EWRC and there’s some Northerly shear.

The 12z Euro is West again. Hurricane force winds come very close to the outer banks and Virginia Beach area.

The current trough that moved through the Northeast is weakening and lifting out. The trough that will steer this out will build into the Northeast tomorrow night into Wedensday. There’s still spread on timing of pieces affecting the strength of the sub tropical ridge and the overall track. It’s the difference between a complete miss and a graze on the outer banks.

Another shift West with the 12z spaghetti models. They all now make it to at least 70 W before recurving. The vort that eventually kicks this out should be onshore tomorrow so hopefully the we’ll get a better consensus by Sunday.

I was in Weirton yesterday. Flew into KPIT. It was still quite hazy landing but the drive on 22 was gorgeous.

The storm threat drops East of the Hudson however I like today's threat for Northern/Central NJ extending into the LHV, especially if we can get some clearing.

Thanks everyone. Yup, 3rd one wasn’t planned but ….. happens.

Thanks Don.

I couldn't be happier that this god forsaken Winter is coming to an early and abrupt end. My wife and I are expecting our third in early April and we're hoping for nice weather so that we can take him outside for walks.

Happy Everyone gets screwed day. 59 pages + for a dusting/flurries.

We had a recent March, might have been 2017 or 2018 with 4 or 5 big storms in March. We got into a pattern where we got coastals every week, but that was definitely an anomaly. One of my all time favorite storms, March 2010 was a 5" rain maker, occurring a few weeks after the snowicane.

Friday marks the end of prime snow season for the NY metro which runs from roughly December 20th to the Friday after President's Day. Of course it can and probably will snow in March and April but you start to run into significant problems. In some ways sun angle is already an issue. It snowed at my house for 8 hours on Saturday and we ended up with about an inch. And most of that accumulated after 5PM when the sun went down. Other than my cars, I didn't even have to clean it up. My biggest snowfall of the season this year was 5" and it was back in December.

That was the wildest storm ever and led to a period of major flooding in March because of the runoff in NNJ.

Who are you and why are you using my name?