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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    It has the trough negatively tilted at hr 84, agree.
  2. NJwx85
    If you look at the last few runs of the GFS, the trend is for a more positively tilted trough and lower heights at the coast. My call right now is for nothing significant North of Toms River.
  3. NJwx85
    And to think some here were upset yesterday because the 18z GFS showed a coastal scraper.
  4. NJwx85
  5. NJwx85
    This is trending towards nothing up here and I'm fine with that. Have my son's birthday party on Saturday afternoon anyway. And no legit snowlover would be happy with a 1-3" event when the GFS was showing 20-30" yesterday.
  6. NJwx85
  7. NJwx85
    12z NAM looking better. Maybe it's the start of a trend. Today is probably the last day for significant changes.
  8. NJwx85
    Long range NAM but this would result in a suppressed solution.
  9. NJwx85
    Looks nothing like the Euro at H5.
  10. NJwx85
    You want the NAM to be showing a track into Albany at this range. If it’s not super amped beyond 60hrs that’s a tell.
  11. NJwx85
    No. In fact, the consensus was out to sea, didn't come back till Christmas Eve. It was a Christmas miracle. Of course, the models weren't nearly as good back then. That was one of my first memories from being on this board.
  12. NJwx85
    At hour 84, the GFS is more amped than 12z.
  13. NJwx85
    12z Euro and 18z GFS are nearly identical at H5 at hour and then differences begin. GFS is already digging the Northern stream into the Dakotas while the Euro is well North of the border.
  14. NJwx85
    The Euro and GFS are pretty similar earlier on. The major differences aloft occur late Thursday night into Friday morning. It all comes down to timing.
  15. NJwx85
    A lot of what you see falling on the Northern fringe will be extremely light. Going to be lots of subsidence North of where this sets up.
  16. NJwx85
    Just a less reliable model correcting South.
  17. NJwx85
    I've had 4 measurable snowfalls already, two plowable and it's only January 3rd. The important thing is that we're in an active pattern so there will continue to be storm chances. We had a period in October and November where it rained like twice in a 60 day span.
  18. NJwx85
    The PV dropping down through New England killed this storm and the one that would have come the end of next week. The energy coming out of the plains won't dig enough and the pattern is flat and overall progressive. It comes down to bad timing.
  19. NJwx85
    The warm air out West starts building East on the EPS post day 9.
  20. NJwx85
    The cold air in the East definitely begins retreating after the pre Christmas storm.
  21. NJwx85
    The northern stream piece coming through the upper plains is problematic for areas North of the city because it forces the ULL East prematurely.
  22. NJwx85
    Naked swirl alert.
  23. NJwx85
    This is the one directly West of Boynton Beach correct?
  24. NJwx85
    Just to clarify, I wasn't implying that this was going to restrengthen, although some of the hurricane models had modest deepening occurring in the final 12 hours yesterday. But steady state or very slow weakening is likely, and impacts are going to continue to be severe.
  25. NJwx85
    Deep ring of -80C convection now around the center.
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