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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    Boston is in the mid 30’s with an onshore flow until Sunday morning.
  2. NJwx85
    The high which isn’t strong to begin with is over Nova Scotia by Saturday night. No cold air drainage.
  3. NJwx85
    The track isn’t the issue. You have a retreating high and a weak storm. Remember when this looked like it might hit DC?
  4. NJwx85
    Almost all rain for NYC on the 12z GFS. Maybe an hour or two of slop.
  5. NJwx85
    12z GFS, rain snow line near 287/87 by 06z.
  6. NJwx85
    12z GFS, NYC starts as a few wet flakes and quickly flips to rain or mixed precip. At 00z they are already 34 degrees.
  7. NJwx85
    12z GFS so far is stronger and further North.
  8. NJwx85
    Models are in agreement on a sub 980 surface low tracking over Lake Erie. The current model depiction would bring heavy rain and very windy conditions even well inland. Potential for widesprad 2-4”+ of rain and wind gusts in excess of 50mph will result in a moderate to high threat of power outages, made worse with saturated grounds. Area rivers which have recently experienced flooding will once again be stressed. Rapid snow melt, especially in Northern areas will exacerbate the flooding threat.
  9. NJwx85
    My current thinking is that it develops a few hours too late. Some of the high res models however do indicate the potential for some backend snows on Long Island.
  10. NJwx85
    The super high res models like the FV3 Hi-Res indicate that accumulatins are very elevation dependent with this system. Even across Rockland which usually does well in these systems could see less than 2” on the Southeast portion near Nyack and over 10” in the hillier areas that border Orange County.
  11. NJwx85
    I have nothing new to add that hasn’t already been said. Steep gradient that should run East of the GSP (Spring Valley/Montvale) and South of 287/87 in Rockland and Westchester. The difference beteeen Yorktown and Yonkers could be over 6”. Places like West Milford and Warwick with some elevation will be near a foot or more. This is a 5-6 hour quick dump unless the secondary system works out for Sunday. My current thought is whatever falls Sunday morning will be light and not impact totals much.
  12. NJwx85
    Rain to 287 and no Sunday action.
  13. NJwx85
    100 miles East at 18z Sunday and 5mb weaker.
  14. NJwx85
    18z GFS far less impressive with Sunday snows.
  15. NJwx85
    One thing I can tell you about the 18z 3k NAM is that it indicates about a 6 hour period in NYC and surrounding areas of moderate to heavy snow Saturday night before any mixing issues. Even at 04z NYC is at 33 degrees but soundings show the column below freezing so it would still be snow. After 05z there’s a warm nose around 750mb which would cause sleet to mix in.
  16. NJwx85
    Sunday is going to be a nowcasting event and has tremendous bust chances in both directions. Even if it worked out verbatim like the GFS/NAM show it’s still going to come down to exactly where and when the band pivots. We shall see if confidence increases the next two days. Still lots of time to go.
  17. NJwx85
    For the most part.
  18. NJwx85
    Winter storm watch for 5 to 8” for OBX area excluding NYC and LI.
  19. NJwx85
    There’s a weakening line of flurries passing Southeast over the NY/CT border.
  20. NJwx85
    https://x.com/burgwx/status/1742975148087730376?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw
  21. NJwx85
    If you’re looking for more than a sloppy couple of inches we will need stronger dynamics to help cool the BL. Still you’re looking at 33-34 degrees in the city during peak intensity. The better hope is that Sunday materializes.
  22. NJwx85
    6”+ on the GFS for the North and West of 287 crowd.
  23. NJwx85
    The only area that gets shafted is the immediate coastline, like the city, South shore of LI and far Eastern NJ.
  24. NJwx85
    Storm passes just South of LI and we dry slot by 12z Sunday.
  25. NJwx85
    Newark is 33 degrees in that panel.
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