NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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Just to give an idea on the massive size of the wind field. Also, notice the increased winds along the coast thanks to the tightening gradient between the high and Lee
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Part of the reason is that conditions have been favorable in the MDR so systems aren't making it that far West.
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https://x.com/michaelrlowry/status/1701793885108777040?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw How do you embed tweets now?
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Eaten alive by dry air on the NW side
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Why is it having such a hard time clearing out the eye? Outflow is ridiculous and it's still over sufficiently warm water. Shear appears low and don't see a lot of dry air intrusion.
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I was comparing to yesterday's 12z run. It's West of that but East of 00z.
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Euro with landfall in Eastern Maine at 120hrs
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12z Euro is slightly West of the 00z run at 96hrs. Close enough to bring strong winds to the New England coast.
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It really is astounding The 12z Friday position is nearly identical to the 00z run.
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Also to note is that the GFS has moderate Southwesterly shear building West of potential Nigel thanks to deep East coast trough.
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12z GFS has a major hurricane one week from today Southeast of Bermuda and heading West with ridging overhead. It needs to miss the weakness leftover behind Margot if it has a chance of making it West of Bermuda.
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12z GFS is about 50 miles or so SW of the previous run at 90hrs. It's decently slower and on a trajectory for a landfall in extreme Eastern Maine.
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The outflow has really improved the last few hours and the eye appears to be clearing out some. The HAFS is predicting a more or less steady state system until Saturday morning when it starts to feel the cooler SST.
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It wouldn't take much to bring strong winds into the region and if he lives in Brooklyn he might be susceptible to coastal flooding. The 06z GFS which was pretty far offshore still brings near TS force winds to the Eastern end of Long Island. The Euro brings those winds much further West. Still a wait and see.
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Hurricane models showed this nicely. Huge expansion of wind field and truck tire eye. Not much strengthening though due to larger size.
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Looks like the 12z EPS mean landfalls in Eastern Maine.
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I don't think this is going to landfall in the US anymore than you do, but a glancing blow is still definitely possible.
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If you look at the steering flow there's no reason to believe it just stops moving NW from this point.
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If you put it into motion it's headed in that direction at a fairly good speed.
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12z HAFS-A is hooking left into SNE as the run ends.
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12z HWRF is similar to the globals with a likely landfall in Eastern Maine or Nova Scotia imminent. Tropical storm force winds make it to the Cape by Saturday afternoon.
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Fairly strong consensus building for a landfall in down East Maine or Nova Scotia. Not really too concerned about New England. That area is used to seeing strong winds during winter storms.
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New England is within the cone of uncertainty. That should tell you all you need to know.
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Most, but not all of the 06z GEFS members steer the next system safely out to sea. Threat is not zero but is minimal at this time.
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IR has improved a lot. Shear looks like it has backed off.
