NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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Today's severe weather threat is dynamically driven. Combination of deepening trough swinging through Ontario and intensifying jet streak coming up the Appalachians. Even with the cloud cover, we're sitting at around 2000 J/KG of SBCAPE and 30-40kts of effective shear. Should be plenty to sustain activity. The 19z HRRR takes the activity in SE PA and brings it through here around 01z. Take a look at the latest supercell composite. Not often you see this around here.
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That's what the 00z models picked up on. Very sharp drop off near the Hudson if it ends up verifying. Here in Ramsey it's really coming down and blowing but still not sticking to pavement.
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Snow is really coming down here but still not sticking to pavement.
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I'm sure that they don't have an actual observation from New City. My guess is that is the temp at HPN. NWS uses HPN for our area and I'm fairly certain The Weather Channel likely uses NWS observations.
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That's the Kuchera map which is more useful in this case for actual accumulations vs just white rain.
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It should be picking up soon. Looks like a band is getting going over North Rockland.
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I don't know about 3" but another 1-2" is likely.
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What are you looking at for your temperature observations? When I left Bardonia at 7:45 it was 33 degrees. Now my reading says 32 degrees.
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Time to give up the ghost. This was never a snowstorm for NYC and it's looking bleak for Boston too.
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The double barreled surface low turned out to be correct. The one over SNE is causing both a dry slot for that region and helping to enhance the precip over our area. We actually have a decent amount of frontogenesis currently in the lower and mid-levels so I'm not surprised that things have trended a bit snowier for the Hudson Valley.
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We're okay for awhile. Should snow for at least the next 8-10 hours in most locations. The surface low is still deepening. Once it starts to occlude later this afternoon that is when things will start to dry up however the process will be somewhat slow and the system is as far East right now as it will get.
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When I left home it was 33 degrees and mostly white rain. When I hit Suffern on the Thruway it really picked up. I would say visibility was down to about 1/4 of a mile near the exit for Airmont. So far about 2" on non paved surfaces here in Ramsey. Car said 30 degrees, phone says 32 degrees. Either way, I think we're a touch colder than originally forecast. I think if this had fallen last night a lot more would have stuck.
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I have some snow on my car and a slushy coating on the grass. It’s 33 degrees. If that death band does setup just East of the River everyone just West will probably be stuck in sub hell.
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That GFS run is on crack. It gives zero to Eastern Mass and over a foot just East of the Hudson.
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The mix/snow line has cleared the Sussex and Orange County lines, sagging SE towards Ramapo and Ringwood. Looks like the mix line is about halfway across Rockland and Bergen so far. Getting close to Spring Valley and Montvale.
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Radar is actually blossoming East of the GSP.
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Hot off the presses
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All I can say is LOL
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Not bad. Problem is outside of the higher elevations it's 35 degrees and falling during the daylight hours in mid March.
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You're not kidding.
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The 18z HRRR is slightly improved for the NW burbs. Primarily because of a slightly faster changeover tonight and a bit more coverage on the light snows tomorrow afternoon.
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Latest SREF mean basically cut totals in half from this morning for the Hudson Valley.
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Yes as you go up the Palisades you start to go up in elevation. Especially once you get up to Stony Point near Bear Mountain.
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GFS has a crazy snow gradient over Rockland and Westchester. Could be 8"+ in places like Tompkins Cove and Yorktown Heights while Nyack and White Plains get under an inch.
