NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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OBS-Nowcast for snow 4P Tue 2/11-7A THURSDAY 2/13/25 Mainly NJ-NYC-LI.
NJwx85 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Nothing here in Rockland County. Looks like the cutoff line right now is near Yonkers. -
It’s snowing now in DC at the White House.
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The 18z NAM 12k is weaker with the precip than 12z. Double digit snows in VA cut back to 6-8”. Philly went from 6 to 4.
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Why are people looking at the HRRR at this range? It’s useful once it actually starts snowing to pick out banding features. I wouldn’t worry about it unless the NAM caves this next run.
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Can’t wait for the, “sun angle” conversations in about 3 weeks. It’s coming folks. Better cash in this week.
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The RGEM isn’t a great model. Like the NAM it tends to make wild jumps inside of 48hrs. They are useful but only if you know how to use them.
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Warning level is 7” and it’s based on probability which for those areas is low.
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Winter storm warning here 5-7”
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Really nothing has changed since yesterday except that totals have gone up pretty much everywhere except the far East end.
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I didn’t say a shift couldn’t happen, but that would screw some inland areas.
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That's what you get for living in the middle of the ocean.
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You've been on here long enough to know that not everyone can win in a setup like this.
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GFS has been very steady. I think it has the best handle of all the guidance.
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Why are you using the EPS mean to make a snowfall forecast?
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That's more like it, NAM caves.
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15z SREF looks warm for the coast.
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I'm going to go out on a limb and say that if we don't cash in with the storm towards the end of next week, our next chance won't come until mid February.
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Orographically enhanced lift.
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Does this look like a cold pattern to you in the East?
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I'd rather see what gives me the most snow. And so does everyone else here. I'm just being honest about it. If I had to make a public forecast, 2-4" for the immediate coast and city looks likely. 4-6" North of 287 in Westchester and 4-6" West of the Hudson in the LHV. A bit less East of the city, with mostly rain for the South facing shore areas. Rain changing over to snow for the I-78 corridor. 1-3" for both of those areas. 6"+ possible well North and West.
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Of course you would, but you live in South Jersey. That's the same distance from NYC to Riverhead. So in other words, two completely different worlds meteorologically.
