NJwx85

I've been saying this since before Christmas. The pattern breakdown is temporary. The 12z GEFS actually reloads the pattern by early next week and it gets progressively warmer towards the third week of January. If true, we're looking at +5-7C or average daytime highs in the upper 40's and lower 50's.

You know the writing is on the wall for strong -NAO blocking to show up in April right? It's going to be a way above normal Winter and a cold and nasty Spring.

For anyone grasping at straws, the 12z GFS has another PV intrusion around mid January but it's in completion contradiction with the GEFS which have a huge torch.

If you toss most of January its going to be a very short Winter at the coast, even if February over performs.

How are upper 50's/ Low 60's in January not a big deal? It's the equivalent of temps being 20-30 degrees below normal in early July.

Storm on the 12z GFS misses the phase, weak mess goes way OTS. Meanwhile ridge begins reloading by early the following week and we're back above normal. Hopefully we can squeak in a few days in the 70's. Would like to get in a round of golf.

With regards to the GFS, we're solidly above average until next Friday when a strong shortwave builds down from the Rockies and digs a trough into the Southeast. This supposedly is enough to break down the ridge and kick it East. After the storm threat and a brief cool down the ridge reloads again by Mid Month. In any event, I'm highly skeptical of the storm threat next weekend. The Euro digs the energy into the Southwest and that would create a big plains cutter and reload the ridge. We could end up 20-30 degrees above normal by the second week of January if the Euro ends up being correct. And yes, any cool down would be brief, maybe 3-5 days of seasonable temps.

Obviously nowhere near as intense but this reminds me of the Christmas 2002 system. Temps started off warm. We had a legit squall line come through with lots of lightning and hail and then temps crashed and it flipped over to snow. 6"+ IMBY in NNJ.

Radar shows a lot of snow breaking out in NJ behind the initial line. Probably nothing more than a coating but with the rapid freeze it should stick.

Don't have exact amounts here but my lawn was a lake. Given the intensity I'm sure it was well over 2" here in about a 2 hour span.

The HRRR has up to an inch today with the front passage.

Wind and rain here we’re ripping 2:30-4:30am. Very intense.

What was the year that we got 5 big storms all in March? I remember I was living in Mahwah at the time and one of my trees in the front yard self destructed from the weight of the wet snow. Seemed like we were getting a storm every week. Was thinking it was 2017 but maybe it was 2018?

Anyone else notice the surface low South of LI on the NAM?

The 18z NAM has less of an inversion than previous runs. 30-40 mph with a few higher gusts is still notable and seems likely.

The surface low doesn't really pop now until the ULL is in Western PA so Canada gets a major snowstorm instead. If the trough had dug a bit more we probably could have gotten the surface low to run up the apps which would have still torched the immediate coast but probably would have brought a nice front end dump to the interior.

The HRRR has less of an inversion than the NAM.

Very light snow falling here in Ramsey, NJ. Temp 34 degrees.

It's the second day of Winter. Prime snowfall season at the coast just started and will last till around Presidents Day. We will have plenty of opportunities in January February and likely even March. If the beginning of July looked cool would people be canceling Summer?

Why are people jumping off buildings because the beginning of January looks above normal? We've seen a lot of backloaded Winters in recent years.

I created a topic for today and tomorrow's storm.

Snow well inland will quickly flip to rain this afternoon as heavy rain and warm air surge over the region. We have a highlighted potential for flash flooding, damaging winds and thunderstorms, especially late this evening. Tomorrow is going to be a wild day with mild temps to start the day and then an arctic blast during the afternoon which will produce a rapid drop in temps and the potential for some back end snow and more damaging winds. Discuss here and post your obs.

The 12z GFS has been very persistent with the potential for a quick burst of snow on Friday afternoon along the arctic front. Mesoscale models don't show much. I personally think that the dry air moves in way too quickly but Western areas could see flakes, especially Ulster/Sullivan/Orange/Warren/Sussex.

It looks like we might see some heavy convection, possibly even some thunderstorms late Thursday night. NAM even has some modest mid level lapse rates.