NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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Watch for Central and Southern areas.
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https://x.com/nwswpc/status/1691287935927410689?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw
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The mud nest is a mud dauber. Mostly harmless. They nest alone.
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It’s probably because we’ve had a quite a few premature cool nights this month. Plenty of nights with lows in the 50’s. Tricking them into thinking it’s September already. That’s when they start going nuts because they can sense the end is near.
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Flood watch just issued for here. 1-2" of rain with localized amounts exceeding 4" 11PM tonight until tomorrow AM. This has been a very wet Summer here.
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I wasn't aware that a threat existed for tomorrow night outside of an isolated pop up storm.
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The latest HRRR says otherwise.
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High confidence in thunderstorms, low confidence in the severe threat. They can make further adjustments if needed based on latest guidance/observations.
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It's the timing. Most of the activity around here should come between 08-10z. The 06z 3K NAM soundings do look mildly interesting over the interior.
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HRRR for the win.
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Squall line coming through Hudson Valley now. Looks intense. About to get hammered here.
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Don’t expect anything South of the mid Hudson Valley till after 11pm. Except maybe an isolated storm like what hit Sussex and then Orange.
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Lightning and distant thunder here with the line still 25-30 miles to my SW.
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The part of the line swinging over Morristown looks to be holding together.
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The line is splitting as forecast. One area will go towards SE NY, the other the Delmarva.
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Not sure if this means a new watch is coming further East but it sounds like we will get a new watch somewhere soon.
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Places just to my North up by Woodbury, Stony Point, West Point area are never going to be the same again. Bridges and roadways completely washed away.
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I'm not saying that they shouldn't keep accurate records. Just that if you were "paying nerds to hang over in the park" everyday they would be reporting a whole lot of nothing. I guess that's true about most places though.
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New York City is a pretty boring place to live if you're an extreme weather enthusiast outside of the occasional big blizzard and ultra rare tropical hit.
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An EF4 tornado could pass down 7th Ave during rush hour and New Yorkers would barely notice.
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Today's severe weather threat is dynamically driven. Combination of deepening trough swinging through Ontario and intensifying jet streak coming up the Appalachians. Even with the cloud cover, we're sitting at around 2000 J/KG of SBCAPE and 30-40kts of effective shear. Should be plenty to sustain activity. The 19z HRRR takes the activity in SE PA and brings it through here around 01z. Take a look at the latest supercell composite. Not often you see this around here.
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That's what the 00z models picked up on. Very sharp drop off near the Hudson if it ends up verifying. Here in Ramsey it's really coming down and blowing but still not sticking to pavement.
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Snow is really coming down here but still not sticking to pavement.
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I'm sure that they don't have an actual observation from New City. My guess is that is the temp at HPN. NWS uses HPN for our area and I'm fairly certain The Weather Channel likely uses NWS observations.
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That's the Kuchera map which is more useful in this case for actual accumulations vs just white rain.
