NJwx85

Bombs Away

It's mid March. A track like this in January/February would have produced for everyone but that time has long since passed.

Incoming

Euro hour 102. Surface temps start off in the lower 40's and fall into the mid-upper 30's along the coast. Looks like a paste job for the interior crew.

The Euro is going to be a major hit (precip wise) Storm at 96 hours is developing off the VA Capes with precip breaking out over the area.

Euro still pretty much in line with the rest of the guidance outside of the overdone GFS.

I created a separate thread for the Monday-Tuesday storm.

The Euro, GFS and GGEM all have a Nor'easter threat for Monday into Tuesday of next week. 12z Models so far: GFS - Develops late and hammers Eastern New England. GGEM - Coastal hugger. Heavy rain, flipping to snow for the far interior. Near blizzard conditions for the mid and upper Hudson Valley, up into interior New England. Euro - TBD. 00z was similar to the 12z GGEM.

12z GGEM 2-4" interior. Coating to an inch coastal plain. Cutoff I-287-I-87 in NY.

You have a few things working for you at the coast. Most of the precip falls at night and we could get a few hours of moderate/heavy precip. But the BL is warm and even though all areas should flip to snow eventually, it will be falling mostly on pavement in urban areas. Should see at least filtered March sunshine until mid-late afternoon. Bottom line it will have trouble accumulating outside of grassy areas unless it comes down very heavy.

LOL that is one thing that the NAM is actually good for. People misuse it all the time but it was built to pick out small mesoscale features like this. It also does well with temperature profiles in borderline setups, although it does tend to be a tad too cold while the RGEM tends to be too warm.

I'm tossing because it's the GFS. If the NAM/RGEM/HRRR show something similar tomorrow then maybe it's legit.

That is contingent on this frame verifying with the band over LI as the storm is pulling away. Toss.

12z GFS. Looks like I-287-I-87 in NY is the cutoff for 4"+

This is going to end up similar to the system from last week. Most areas should be under 6". Most of the interior should see 2-4" with a few areas 4"+. 1-2" for NE NJ near the city, Central NJ and Southern Westchester. Coating for the immediate coastal plain.

I think a lot of it is dependent on how intense the precip is. A stronger onset could bring about a brief period of dynamic cooling.

The HRRR has trended snowier North of I-87 in Rockland. Has consistently shown 2-4" since the 13z run today. My guess is that an inch or two might actually fall before a flip to sleet. Fair compromise between the HRRR, 3k NAM and RGEM.

Just goes to show you how far off those 8-10” model runs were yesterday. Doubt we see anyone 7”+ outside of the far interior.

Looks like we’re just about done as I predicted yesterday. Showers/flurries should linger most or the day. With marginal BL and end of Feb sun angle don’t expect any additional accumulations. Currently 30 degree here and eyeballing 5-6”.

This was the 18z HRRR. Falls in line with my thinking. Cut off on under 6" amounts should be on a general line from Paterson to Paramus to White Plains. 3-5" still looks good for places just West of NYC and the North shore of LI. Lesser amounts for the South shore, Central NJ, Southern Westchester and areas North of the Bear Mount bridge in the Hudson Valley, except for the higher elevations in Ulster/Sullivan. South of the Sunrise Highway could see very little.

Most of Rockland will be closed and places like Ramsey and Mahwah will be closed as well. That are is part of NE NJ. The cutoff is around Paramus on Rt 17 in these events.

Most of NNJ and the Hudson valley will be closed.

Surprised anyone is asking this after the long track record of never closing NYC public schools. In any event, they will never close schools in the city for an advisory level event.

Strong warm air advection arrives between 03-06z with high pressure moving over extreme NNE. The high is leaving, but the timing is near perfect for overrunning. Temperatures hang around the freezing mark for the I-80 corridor and then crash after 12z into the mid 20's. If the GFS profiles end up correct then those widespread 6"+ amounts are certainly possible. Heaviest snow looks to fall between 6z and 12z, then gradually taper after that. We will all benefit from this mostly falling at night and coming in rather intense.

Pulled the snow blower out of the shed last night and gassed it up. Cannot believe it took until the end of February before I felt the need. Expecting a solid 6-8" storm up here in Central Rockland. Nice to have one of those classic, North and West of I-287 storms, however the cut off shouldn't be that sharp. Everyone should at least get a good burst tonight on the front end.