NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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Typical windshield wiper today. Don’t be surprised if it goes back East tonight
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18z GFS
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At this range you better hope the NAM jackpots Buffalo. If it shows a big hit around here or is further East that would be a red flag.
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This sub forum is unique. Not in size but because the climate differs tremendously from West to East and North to South. New England has the same infighting between the NNE and SNE crews. We're all hear to discuss the weather. Not just the weather that is falling or not falling in your backyard, but weather impacting a portion of or the entire region.
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Agreed. Wish we could see Euro soundings.
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Model skill is generally poor at surface depictions for mixed precip. Would need to look at soundings to see the full picture which I don't have access too.
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I think the danger is we're three days out and a lot can go wrong. IE the low developing too late or dynamics not being strong enough to cool the BL ect. But as things stand now verbatim, I think most would do very well. It wouldn't be an epic blizzard for the coast but it would easily be the biggest snowfall of the season.
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About 2-2.5" areawide.
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Theoretically on the Euro, most of this subforum sees 12+ hours of sleet or mixed precip which would cut down on totals along the coast. Doubt that happens in reality. We would be under the "death band" for a good 6-12 hours and even though surface temps would be 2-3 degrees above freezing I do believe it would accumulate.
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The Euro develops the system a bit later but we still end up with well over 2" of QPF. This should be all from storm 2.
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Monday afternoon, pretty much rain everywhere. Seems warmer than 00z.
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12z Euro Monday morning. Light precip breaking out.
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12z Euro has a very sharp cutoff South and East of I-87-I-287 in Southern NY. Lots of mixing and sleet for Bergen, SE Rockland and Westchester. Mostly rain for the immediate coast.
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This would be the March 2001 scenario.
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Looks like NWS lowered totals.
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It was initially way OTS when the system was in the mid Atlantic. The Euro at that hour has the system on the coast.
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The 18z GFS now has the system suppressed way out to sea.
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Be happy that most of this falls at night because if it was falling during the day this time of year it would just be white rain.
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The 18z GFS has a very sharp cut off South of I-287-I-87 in Rockland/Westchester. Basically on a line from Suffern to Spring Valley to Nanuet to Nyack to White Plains.
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That 1-3" is for non paved surfaces for the city and immediate burbs.
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My point and click in Rockland is for 3-5" Very similar to last weeks event. Changeover expected at 10PM Friday night. Ending late Saturday morning.
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The system finally occludes and stalls near Cape Cod on Tuesday night. Over 30 hours of precip from start to finish.
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Cannot ask for a much more juiced system. This would be a widespread 18"+ about 40 miles inland.
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Still snowing.
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Even at hr 126 temps are stuck in the mid 30's at the coast.
