NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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You love to see it.
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I agree, however the HRRR wants to send the heavy stuff to SNE tomorrow morning instead of here.
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All that dry air on the East side of the circulation makes me think it will dry out after the initial heavy rain tomorrow AM. Looks like most of the heavy stuff gets pushed into SNE. We’ll see.
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Looks like there’s a decent amount of lightning with the convection West of the center.
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The 00z NAM is looking drier for Saturday morning.
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We should be good for a widespread 1-2" on the first batch with potential for more and embedded tornado threat Saturday morning. If Sunday comes to fruition that's how we could see 4"+
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12z HMON hurricane model is a real soaker for Saturday night into Sunday. Not sure about earlier.
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Fujiwara with an ULL off the east coast.
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The real story will be the coastal flooding, inland fresh water flooding and potential for severe weather along the mid-atlantic/northeast coasts.
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The only saving grace is that the rain at least for Saturday morning/afternoon looks to be progressive. We will have to see if the convection that the 3k NAM has for Saturday evening comes to fruition.
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12z RGEM
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This should be fun
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Hodographs looks interesting for Saturday afternoon, especially along the immediate coast. We should see bands rotating in off the ocean capable of water spouts coming onshore.
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https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1704688609113071744?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw
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3k NAM looks really intense for Saturday morning
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The low will move East from there
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With more to come on Sunday
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The 18z NAM was actually about 50 miles West of the 12z run for the landfall position. SC/NC border vs Central NC.
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Still some really wet members in there.
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12z GEFS shifted South and East.
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The storm makes landfall in North Carolina on the 12z GFS as a mid-high end tropical storm.
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It's the long range NAM and the same holds true now as it does during Winter with its accuracy. But it does at least show the storm tracking well inland and so that adds support for the Western models. The ECMWF is still an Eastern outlier.
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Most of the models have the actual low tracking nearby on Sunday so rain would eventually come back in at some point.
