NJwx85

Because it was still a very complex evolution that wasn't easy to resolve. The airmass which wasn't that cold to begin with is stale. You're missing a fresh injection of cold air. Besides the general lack of cold air, you have two other major problems. First, the closed upper level low tracks overhead which is always the kiss of death. You need to be just North of the track of the ULL or you dry slot. Secondly, the NAM and at times the Euro were way too strong with the energy involving the ULL itself. The Euro was closing it off much sooner, which would have led to a quicker development of the surface low and overall a stronger system. Kudos to the GFS which has had this solution since last week.

It was a bigger head fake because the model skill wasn't as good as it is now. It's very similar in that we got burned by a late developing storm.

The HRRR has maybe a few hours of mostly white rain tomorrow afternoon as the low occludes over New England. Some areas might pick up 1-2" but temps are in the mid 30's on the coastal plain and precip is light and falling during the day. Any accumulations would be on grassy and untreated surfaces.

Lets hope the HRRR is completely out to lunch.

The latest HRRR has basically no snow outside of the higher elevations of Orange County and NW NJ through 05z tonight. Then the changeover gradually begins, but the whole area begins to dry slot. If that happens, the forecast is very much in trouble. This reminds me of March 2001 so much, but the biggest difference being that models are so much better than they were then and so they were able to figure this out a lot quicker.

I had a 6” storm the week before last and one storm in December.

It won’t be though. Yesterday I had 4” on my car and maybe an inch on grass. And it was all gone by this time yesterday.

You can’t take away what never was outside of a few fluke runs.

Please bring back the upper 60 degree and sunny days. My lawn has started growing, I had flowers starting to pop up and any snow we get, even if over a foot will melt within a day or 2 with this sun.

I’m talking about places closer to the city not the mountains of NW NJ.

The window for a watch is closing and confidence of greater than 6” is less than 60% required South of 84.

Until the GFS and Euro show a consensus on something even remotely similar it’s just model porn.

Many people here will be shocked when the NAM cuts totals by 75% or more by tomorrow morning and yet have been on here for years and still fall for it every damn time. The NAM’s wheelhouse is inside of 24 hours.

Cutoff for that storm was over NW NJ. Major drop off West of MMU

Show Kuchera

Soundings, at least on the GFS don’t show a lot of sleet. It’s mostly rain or snow or a rain snow mix.

Precip isn’t the problem. Track isn’t the problem. The airmass sucks. Plain and simple.

This has never been a major snowstorm for the coast. The Euro had 3-4 runs showing something big and has backed up ever since. The UKMET had it 1 or 2 runs. The NAM shouldn’t even be discussed. This is a miller B in mid March and the model consensus strongly favors climo. I think the threat is over for anyone South of I-84.

Typical windshield wiper today. Don’t be surprised if it goes back East tonight

18z GFS

At this range you better hope the NAM jackpots Buffalo. If it shows a big hit around here or is further East that would be a red flag.

This sub forum is unique. Not in size but because the climate differs tremendously from West to East and North to South. New England has the same infighting between the NNE and SNE crews. We're all hear to discuss the weather. Not just the weather that is falling or not falling in your backyard, but weather impacting a portion of or the entire region.

Agreed. Wish we could see Euro soundings.